Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro is alone and wrong 

It does have a tendency to overamplify, but the AI stuff seems relatively lock-step with it, so it probably has the right idea....I'm not paying close attention, though.

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro is alone and wrong 

Keep posting bullcrap

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does have a tendency to overamplify, but the AI stuff seems relatively lock-step with it, so it probably has the right idea....I'm not paying close attention, though.

6z Euro AI

[Brian5671]

Going to be a mess especially for coastal areas with the winds and the full moon

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

6z Euro AI

Seems like from about my latitude on southward is pretty locked in....even up to MHT looks good,

Nice.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Going to be a mess especially for coastal areas with the winds and the full moon

Paging @Ginx snewx

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of these days, Boris will make a post without tagging Scott.

ALL @CoastalWx ALL DAY... @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx!!!!!!!

I think he misses some of the things I taught him. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish  we could get this evolution during the winter.

That would be pretty dam epic.

[CoastalWx]

6z euro AI is nasty. 
 

Will be interesting to see when we get into hi res territory with the LLJ. Unlike previous storms there will be days of NE fetch. I’m gusting to 25mph and the seas are rough. It’s only Tuesday. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of these days, Boris will make a post without tagging Scott.

ALL @CoastalWx ALL DAY... @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx!!!!!!!

Yeltsin?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeltsin?

For once, your "days and days" mantra is befitting.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For once, your "days and days" mantra is befitting.

It happens more often than not in coastals and overrunning where it snows for several days of varying intensities. 
Unfortunately we won’t be able to have that happen this coming winter with little to no snow. But maybe next winter we can 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro AI is nasty. 
 

Will be interesting to see when we get into hi res territory with the LLJ. Unlike previous storms there will be days of NE fetch. I’m gusting to 25mph and the seas are rough. It’s only Tuesday. 

May be talking about potential for hurricane force gusts along the coasts. But yeah I'm really intrigued to see what hi-res is like with the LLJ and really start digging into mixing potential. Have to watch too for some elevated CAPE grazing the coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It happens more often than not in coastals and overrunning where it snows for several days of varying intensities. 
Unfortunately we won’t be able to have that happen tho coming winter either little to no snow. But maybe next winter we can 

I think the relaxed flow down south will leave us prone to some slow movers, so hopefully we can time one or three with decent cold.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

May be talking about potential for hurricane force gusts along the coasts. But yeah I'm really intrigued to see what hi-res is like with the LLJ and really start digging into mixing potential. Have to watch too for some elevated CAPE grazing the coast

I don’t think that strong. 925 would need to be 80-90kts and I don’t see that. Mixing barely to 925 as well. Unless this deepens  more.

[CoastalWx]

6z euro op is funny. Retros pretty far south, stalls south of LI then was about to wobble back NE at hr 144. 

[CoastalWx]

Winds overall would be less in that scenario, but perhaps more prolonged.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think that strong. 925 would need to be 80-90kts and I don’t see that. Mixing barely to 925 as well. Unless this deepens  more.

WIZ GW

[Bryan63]

My mother in on a cruise going through Portland, Bar Harbor, Eastport, Halifax, and then back to Boston on Sunday. Back half of her trip should be interesting.

Is there a good model or site that shows marine forecasts?

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

May be talking about potential for hurricane force gusts along the coasts. But yeah I'm really intrigued to see what hi-res is like with the LLJ and really start digging into mixing potential. Have to watch too for some elevated CAPE grazing the coast

From a 992mb system….ya not thinking that. Obviously this could deepen more than that, but I wouldn’t think that, at its current progged strength.  

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro op is funny. Retros pretty far south, stalls south of LI then was about to wobble back NE at hr 144. 

Qg-smegma says no, it’s all wrong. 

[Great Snow 1717]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For once, your "days and days" mantra is befitting.

I think you missed his posts from this past Sunday....  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

From a 992mb system….ya not thinking that. Obviously this could deepen more than that, but I wouldn’t think that, at its current progged strength.  

It’s the strong HP to the north . Pressure gradient winds. Bigtime 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lots of convection ongoing in western Atlantic. I'm surprised NHC has 0% odds of anything developing.  SSTs are well AN in that region. 

You read my mind.  See post coming shortly on this thread.

[kdxken]

Let's do this. 

 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

what a beast

Recon may get there when it peaks, which will be KEWL!  Odds are good that it will be stronger than Dvorak says, which is very common for intense TCs.  Dvorak works best for TCs between 60 and 105 kt.

[vortex95]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of these days, Boris will make a post without tagging Scott.

ALL @CoastalWx ALL DAY... @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx, @CoastalWx!!!!!!!

Well, you already had ACWATT.  So why not?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Recon may get there when it peaks, which will be KEWL!  Odds are good that it will be stronger than Dvorak says, which is very common for intense TCs.  Dvorak works best for TCs between 60 and 105 kt.

yeah definitely interested to see what recon finds with this

[vortex95]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Euro AI

The most epic of epic of all Sep nor'easters!  Weenies rejoice!
 

[weatherwiz]

One thing to keep in mind with this potential system too is it being warm core and how long it maintains its warm core