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Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?


weatherwiz
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35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Have to see exactly where the boundary ends up but the RRFS with some nasty storms rolling through later Saturday afternoon. I strongly recommend securing the grill unless you want it going airborne and it starts raining burgers and hot dogs all over. 

Hot dog sized hail would be appreciated 

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I'm also less impressed with this ridge as we've come thru the finally stretch of modeling.  We're not over 590 dm heights actually, which was sustained for several day's worth of model cycles in the blend.  There may have been individual model/runs along the last week's worth of guidance that didn't but they must have been rarer, considering the mean had 594 dm right at that door most of the time.  Yet we're 588.

That's impressive enough I guess ... but it seems we were sneaky Charlie Browned by a little here.  I think in order for us to get a bona fide 102 for two days in row ...the models have be down right Hadean ... so we can go ahead and tax us our cursed boning for this region leaving an actual amazing event.

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Got the slight to nudge east into SNE a bit...probably will see another nudge tonight. Maybe even a 30% area added up to the CT/MA border tomorrow morning

CAMs are all over the place. RRFS is gung ho (the MPAS version not the FV3) but others are nil. I have to think something pops before the heat is gone. Rarely does it go out with a whimper.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

JFK and EWR 100

No surprise at EWR, while Central Park gets surrounded by ever taler trees.  From 2000 on, NYC has reached 100 six times, the most recent in July of 2012.  EWR has notched 40 triples during the same 26 years (don't have June numbers yet) and 17 of those have occurred in the 2020s.

KNYC 100°

And 15 minutes later my data becomes outdated.  :o

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

CAMs are all over the place. RRFS is gung ho (the MPAS version not the FV3) but others are nil. I have to think something pops before the heat is gone. Rarely does it go out with a whimper.

I would have to think something pops too. At least in the case of tomorrow, we have pretty decent height falls into the evening and overnight and lapse rates are pretty respectable for these parts. Shear is pretty solid too, although llvl flow being more westerly may limit convergence? Instability will be there. This is hitting a nice area for wind potential tomorrow and this corridor lines up well with where the best ingredients overlap

severe_ml_day2_all_gefso_070412.png

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