Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, Psychguy said:

Are typhoons in the Pacific linked to increased subtropical jet stream activity… ie. more rain in the South and East?

Immensely complicated question...

The simplest explanation may cross eyes but ... no, it doesn't directly effect that, but does indirectly.

lol

Typhoons out there have a correlation with winter pattern that is more realized than in the summer.  So there's a seasonal constraint on the statistics.   In the winter, ... typhoons that "re curve" into the N. Pacific, dump their latent heat into the jet and this curls into the mid Pac ridge, which then can serves to +augment that amplitude, which in turn effects on the orientation of the planetary wave spacing and amplitude down stream over North America.  That's the simplest way to put it. 

If the typhoon does not re curve and goes into the SE Asian continent, it's less clear if/how it's latent heat fluxes into the mid latitude.  It's like smearing toxin on one's skin as opposed to a sting that injects the venom directly in as a creepy metaphor.  The latter, re curving into the jet/N. Pacific sting, thus makes sense that a more coherent effect on the synoptics is observed.   

The subtropical jets are indirectly related to all this, by way of complex larger scale wave mechanics. Leave it at that...but when the N Pac ridge is bulging, that tends to improve the polar branch/-EPO phase... this tends to trigger a compensating lowering height field underneath and that can assist sub-tropical jet identity.  

There has to be a split in the hemisphere gradients for better STJ performance, in general.  Where there are two differential axis ( latitudes), steep zone near 30-35N, and then another near the lower Ferrel latitudes.  The subtropical jet formulates along the gradient of the 30-35 N, and then runs up polarward to deliver WAA patterns into mid latitude cyclongenetic fields.   ... Whilst the polar branch of the westerlies ( what we consider to be the main kahuna jet) formulates along the other steeper gradient of the lower Ferrel... In the heart of winter that's average around 45 or 50 N.  But dips, and when it does ...these split hemispheres create the bigger bombs.  That's why NINO hemisphere winters, albeit not always as cold as winter geese prefer, tend to generate the more active/higher frequency cyclone traffic.

This whole model, however, is getting harder and harder to cleanly differentiate in observation, as the ongoing CC is also altering circulation manifolds.  We've seen NINO-esque circulation motifs during NINAs and vice versa, do to these changes, with more frequency. This is making the distinctions less clean ... and consequently, some aberrant pattern correlations have been observed.   

In the summer, the planetary wave spacing becomes less coherent with more eddy breakaways and pattern distinctions uncoupled to the larger known teleconnector pathways.  This is because the wave lengths of Long Waves have shrunk, because of a homogenized - or approaching the same state - gradients between the Ferrel and subtropical latitudes.  So the typhoon antics of the western Pac are less important to this overall concept because there's no longer the same machinery.

[Psychguy]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Immensely complicated question...

The simplest explanation may cross eyes but ... no, it doesn't directly effect that, but does indirectly.

lol

Typhoons out there have a correlation with winter pattern that is more realized than in the summer.  So there's a seasonal constraint on the statistics.   In the winter, ... typhoons the "re curve" into the N. Pacific, dump their latent heat into the jet and this curls into the mid Pac ridge, which then can serve to augment that amplitude, and it then has an effect on the orientation of the planetary wave spacing down stream of North America.  That's the simplest way to put it. 

If the typhoon does not re curve and goes into the SE Asian continent, it's less clear if/how it's latent heat fluxes into the mid latitude.  It's like smearing toxin on one's skin as opposed to a sting that injects the venom directly in as a creepy metaphor.  The latter, re curving into the jet/N. Pacific sting, thus makes sense that a more coherent effect on the synoptics is observed.   

The subtropical jets are indirectly related to all this, by way of complex larger scale wave mechanics. Leave it at that...but when the N Pac ridge is bulging, that tends to improve the polar branch/-EPO phase... this tends to trigger a compensating lowering height field underneath and that can assist sub-tropical jet identity.  

There has to be a split in the hemisphere gradients for better STJ performance, in general.  Where there are two differential axis ( latitudes), steep zone near 30-35N, and then another near the lower Ferrel latitudes.  The subtropical jet formulates along the gradient of the 30-35 N, and then runs up polarward to deliver WAA patterns into mid latitude cyclongenetic fields.   ... Whilst the polar branch of the westerlies ( what we consider to be the main kahuna jet) formulates along the other steeper gradient of the lower Ferrel... In the heart of winter that's average around 45 or 50 N.  But dips, and when it does ...these split hemispheres create the bigger bombs.  That's why NINO hemisphere winters, albeit not always as cold as winter geese prefer, tend to generate the more active/higher frequency cyclone traffic.

This whole model, however, is getting harder and harder to cleanly differentiate in observation, as the ongoing CC is also altering circulation manifolds.  We've seen NINO-esque circulation motifs during NINAs and vice versa, do to these changes, with more frequency. This is making the distinctions less clean ... and consequently, some aberrant pattern correlations have been observed.   

Thanks for that explanation… it seems CC is “messing” with a lot of what we used to consider patterns that we could kind of count on, so to speak.

[CT Valley Snowman]

93 HFD, 94 PVD seems to be the hottest corridor locally.  92 here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Psychguy said:

Thanks for that explanation… it seems CC is “messing” with a lot of what we used to consider patterns that we could kind of count on, so to speak.

To some degree.. yes.   Let's not blame all, but it's a partial albeit increasingly observed state of affairs. 

That's why telecon prompting mechanisms have been invented, like "RONI", btw.  Which stands for Relative Oceanic Nino Index.  It is considering the present anomalies surrounding.  etc.. 

 

[dendrite]

Struggling a bit in the Merrimack Valley. MHT 89F at 11am, but they're still 6F ahead of yeterday at this time. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Those a bit more familiar with far NNE climo ... is 82 at 8:50 am impressive for CAR, ME.  I'm assuming so.. but how much.   

Impressive but probably short of all-time records.  They've reached 96 on 4 occasions, May 1977 and June 1944, 2020, 2024.  Those peaks came with lower dews than the current condition, and cooking water likely will modify the heat.
Their temp only rose 4° between 9 and 11, currently 86 with TD 71, so 90-02 looks better than 96 (unless mixing brings the dews to low 60s).  However, if the morning low of 74 holds, that will be their record mild minimum, currently 71 reached a half dozen times.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Impressive but probably short of all-time records.  They've reached 96 on 4 occasions, May 1977 and June 1944, 2020, 2024.  Those peaks came with lower dews than the current condition, and cooking water likely will modify the heat.
Their temp only rose 4° between 9 and 11, currently 86 with TD 71, so 90-02 looks better than 96 (unless mixing brings the dews to low 60s).  However, if the morning low of 74 holds, that will be their record mild minimum, currently 71 reached a half dozen times.

Wow (bold)

 ...they're 88 now

[Hoth]

Man it’s savage out there. I went on a half hour errand and came back just soaked. Paul must be in his element, but I can do without the swass at the office. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Man it’s savage out there. I went on a half hour errand and came back just soaked. Paul must be in his element, but I can do without the swass at the office. 

It's nasty but we got screwed if people are enthusiastic about heat trophies.

The big kahuna heat is NY Metro to EWR and western L.I....  most NWS sites tucked in there are 98 to 103 at 11:30 am!!!

BOOM
 

us...?  hot, but pedestrian so far.

I really think that weird surviving convection - that by synoptic convention should not have... - sending that outflow overnight basically ruined us for contention in this thing for today.

Tomorrow may have a shot with unperturbed overnight heat setting stage better. 

[MJO812]

99 here in NYC

[Typhoon Tip]

I suppose it's possible that those regions unperturbed by overnight scrubbing of the heat staging, like down around the megalopolis ...will cap earlier, and we may be squeeze up as late party guests.   Yeah...could

I mean it's 92 to 93 prior to noon, which is hot enough.   Yesterday we were in the upper 80s ( I think ) around now, and managed a lot of 95 to 97s in a 3 pm surge .. so if we can tack on 7 to 10, will be in 100.  interesting

[Typhoon Tip]

For now...here's the winners

[dendrite]

JFK and EWR 100

[dendrite]

Noon temps

[CT Valley Snowman]

95 here, BDL, and HFD.  96 PVD.  I'm thinking a 100 here, not buying 102-103.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like DP crash into the 60s where the Ts are in the mid 90s or approaching that. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

JFK and EWR 100

that is wild for JFK

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

95 here, BDL, and HFD.  96 PVD.  I'm thinking a 100 here, not buying 102-103.  

I'm thinking that boat sailed when that outflow came throughout overnight -

[Typhoon Tip]

This is what it's like around here when it comes to tracking big heat I've come to find over the years. 

It's like the 2026 Red Sox:  they always find a way to lose.  

Then they'll sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series.  That's like when we're supposed to be 88 but we get a 97 - amazing but ultimately not amazing.

I knew this in my partial wakened state overnight .. that those gentle rains and barely audible thunder rumbles were gently destroying the heat extremes today.   Figured

[dendrite]

I liked 98-100 for awhile given the 850s up here of 21-22C. NYC-NJ was more in that 23-24C zone with spotty 25C. 

[dendrite]

I will say it’s a little strange to see LCI/AFN at 90 while the MRV hot spots of CON/MHT/ASH are 91….wonder if he have a little mixing boost still to go this afternoon like we did yesterday. 

[weatherwiz]

Have to see exactly where the boundary ends up but the RRFS with some nasty storms rolling through later Saturday afternoon. I strongly recommend securing the grill unless you want it going airborne and it starts raining burgers and hot dogs all over. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I liked 98-100 for awhile given the 850s up here of 21-22C. NYC-NJ was more in that 23-24C zone with spotty 25C. 

mm  21.5 C should get one to 39 C if the mixing hgt's to 850 sigma.   The adiabat stops at 1000 ( you know this..), 36 C on the skew t log p diagram, but then the 1000 to absolute surface slopes to the right for 2 to 3 C (typically) in a fair expectation.   That's about a buck-2 ...   when you don't get outflowed overnight causing hard to prove lag holding you down  LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

94

[Typhoon Tip]

uhp  95

[Lava Rock]

90/76

[Sey-Mour Snow]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2072714292655194125?s=46

cool stat above temp of 96 before noon in KNYC

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  21.5 C should get one to 39 C if the mixing hgt's to 850 sigma.   The adiabat stops at 1000 ( you know this..), 36 C on the skew t log p diagram, but then the 1000 to absolute surface slopes to the right for 2 to 3 C (typically) in a fair expectation.   That's about a buck-2 ...   when you don't get outflowed overnight causing hard to prove lag holding you down  LOL

I feel like we don’t realize that (+17C from 850 to 2m) as much in July without a strong compressional wind flow…like the classic 29015G25 deal. Otherwise transpiration usually does us in.

7/22/2011 soundings (23/00z) were 23C at ALB and 26C at CHH with weak CAA. So we were pulling those 100-103s with probably 24-25C 850s and strong west flow behind the prefrontal trough.

[Damage In Tolland]

92.5/77

We heaven 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I feel like we don’t realize that (+17C from 850 to 2m) as much in July without a strong compressional wind flow…like the classic 29015G25 deal. Otherwise transpiration usually does us in.

7/22/2011 soundings (23/00z) were 23C at ALB and 26C at CHH with weak CAA. So we were pulling those 100-103s with probably 24-25C 850s and strong west flow behind the prefrontal trough.

I don't argue this ... but, just the same I'd like to have seen today's set up operated on by diurnal heating ... without the overnight processing event, which stayed safely N of NYC's current heat parade.  

I agree with that aspect you mentioned an hour ago that we may see a burst of sorts if we suddenly mix out a vaguely coherent lowest layer.   Like yesterday ...