"There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Yeah pretty surprised they did not put up a watch regionwide 

I understand the watch for NE MD and the counties bordering Mason-Dixon... it was the Western Loudoun/NW Montgomery/NW Howard additions.  

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Baltimore officially under the gun.

Considering this is a watch and not a warning I'm kind of dumbfounded that they didn't go with at least all of Central MD and DC area. A few more obedient ticks by our Canadian Shortwave friends and we're going to cash big on this. It's a watch, just do it. 

[IronTy]

Are we thinking this storm will be similar to the 1/2022 storm we had where it was pouring rain one minute and then dumping snow paste the next where we ended up with a foot of snow and a ton of downed trees in Calvert?  I understand the synoptics aren't the same here but the results could be similar?

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Baltimore officially under the gun.

Western Loudoun living has its perks! For real though, this map looks so odd 

[EHoffman]

I mean obviously LWX sees surface temps as being a huge issue hence the lack of watches in the DC area.  Hard to disagree honestly.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

I mean obviously LWX sees surface temps as being a huge issue hence the lack of watches in the DC area.  Hard to disagree honestly.

Agreed and they have time to hoist watches if things trend colder.

[Eskimo Joe]

Current watch configuration makes sense ATTM. Lines up with the climo favored areas.

[GaWx]

12Z SV AI Weathernext: DC up to ~7” 10:1 from ~5” 10:1 prior 3 runs; probably ~~5” Kuchera up from ~~4” prior 3 runs

[Terpeast]

 

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Are we thinking this storm will be similar to the 1/2022 storm we had where it was pouring rain one minute and then dumping snow paste the next where we ended up with a foot of snow and a ton of downed trees in Calvert?  I understand the synoptics aren't the same here but the results could be similar?

more similar (but still not anywhere near a match) for synoptics and general output overall for me is 2/5/2010, adjusted for today's warmer climate.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

more similar (but still not anywhere near a match) for synoptics and general output overall for me is 2/5/2010, adjusted for today's warmer climate.

This will not be anything like 2/5/10 my man. Feb 1987 is a closer match. 2/5/10 was a whole other monster and a MUCH better 5H evolution, and it was cooler. 

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

This was basically my forecast at WPC, minus 1-2" almost everywhere. 

Edit: To clarify, I am 1-2" HIGHER than Sterling atm, but it's still early and time for adjustments in either direction. 

[baltosquid]

Only maybe notable changes on the NAM through 18 is the higher heights in the west, and the Canadian shortwave is coming more south. Otherwise, very similar, maybe the trough is a hair narrower or perhaps west. Can't draw any conclusions.

[Amped]

The Nam is just digging the northern stream smoothly this run. Its not doing a wonky meander. What fun is that?

[WxMan1]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This will not be anything like 2/5/10 my man. Feb 1987 is a closer match. 2/5/10 was a whole other monster and a MUCH better 5H evolution, and it was cooler. 

Yep! I just remember holding at 32.5-33.0 with BIG dumping aggregate flakes! 11" or so for me in West Springfield VA, and even DCA did well. Less than 10-1 ratio certainly, so you'll want to look at Kuchera or cut the 10-1 by 20-30% to be safe. 

Hoping that the inverted trough banding would be mostly at night. 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This was basically my forecast at WPC, minus 1-2" almost everywhere. 

Edit: To clarify, I am 1-2" HIGHER than Sterling atm, but it's still early and time for adjustments in either direction. 

We were practically neighbors during the last storm, you can do better back here. I'm guessing they just don't think enough moisture gets back this way

[GramaxRefugee]

19 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Are we thinking this storm will be similar to the 1/2022 storm we had where it was pouring rain one minute and then dumping snow paste the next where we ended up with a foot of snow and a ton of downed trees in Calvert?  I understand the synoptics aren't the same here but the results could be similar?

I've been thinking of that one quite a bit also. Difference, from observational standpoint, is it was preceded by a warm (+6.7) month of December. No cold to the ground at all. This week has been warm, but in our area, ground is still quite cold. Waters still frozen or freshly thawed, (i.e. cold). That 2022 storm didn't have any of that advantage, but still clobbered us here in AACo. Power out, roads closed, trees down. 

I think that it won't take much cold air to turn this in to an impactful storm. Just a bit colder than modeled, and we're back in winter.

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

We were practically neighbors during the last storm, you can do better back here. I'm guessing they just don't think enough moisture gets back this way

The norlun trough is going to be a huge wildcard in this one around here. That will surprise where ever it sets up. Could very well be back towards your area or further east. Regardless, it'll be a crazy storm to watch evolve. 

[bncho]

NAM looks pretty GFS-like at hour 27, but so far it's early

[baltosquid]

NAM, At 30, heights ahead of the wave are obviously higher, and steeper. It looks like it has more room to amplify. It might be a little messier with the pieces though. Hopefully it can turn the corner.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

The norlun trough is going to be a huge wildcard in this one around here. That will surprise where ever it sets up. Could very well be back towards your area or further east. Regardless, it'll be a crazy storm to watch evolve. 

And I'm guessing where that sets up we won't know until it's happening? Lol

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And I'm guessing where that sets up we won't know until it's happening? Lol

inv trofs are going to be nowcasting events, yes

[baltosquid]

Also, the base of the trough is more north, not as deep, but hasn't consolidated fully yet. So we'll see what happens in a few frames.

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, bncho said:

inv trofs are going to be nowcasting events, yes

Like predicting exactly where a summer thunderstorm is going to hit

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

inv trofs are going to be nowcasting events, yes

Not to mention more rare around here, if I'm not mistaken. But I remember NJ having one last year and it kinda coming out of nowhere

[baltosquid]

hmmmmmmm

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

NAM looks pretty GFS-like at hour 27, but so far it's early

Breaking out more precip in Ohio this run and more ridging ahead. 

[bncho]

NAM looks more neg tilted thru hr 42

[Solution Man]

Just now, baltosquid said:

hmmmmmmm

Hmmm

[Interstate]

Just now, baltosquid said:

hmmmmmmm

Yeah that looks more positivity tilted than the 12Z