The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[MJO812]

3k Nam is alot less than the 12k Nam but still impressive totals in LI.

[ILoveWinter]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Insane run for our area

 

10:1 and Kuchera

I think this is the first time NYC cracked 30 in a model run for this storm. Suffice to say this is quite a rare treat (even if it’s overdone).

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I think this is the first time NYC cracked 30 in a model run for this storm. Suffice to say this is quite a rare treat (even if it’s overdone).

Could very well see someone between CT and Monmouth crack 3', if a persistent band sets up on the pivot.  Going to be a very interesting final snow map.  A lot of immediately coastal NJ may see totals (if they can be accurately guaged,) a bit on the lower side.  Winds of this strength tend to compact snow depth during warmer snowfall.  However, it also leads to some wild drifting.  

 

We will know in about 24 hours.   Fun to watch. 

[MJO812]

Latest HRRR

[EasternLI]

RGEM about to clobber the area

[Roger Smith]

Some place within 20 miles of Sayreville to Freehold NJ could have those kinds of totals (30-36 in) and severe drifting. They may be driving snowmobiles down the NJ Turnpike rescuing stranded people. 

[Juturna]

If some of this verifies for LI, I hope my job is kind. When Nemo hit, my street didn’t get plowed for almost 48 hours after the snow stopped. 

[Snowlover11]

Its game time! Flakes start flying in the next 4-6 hours. The goods get here around 4-6pm

[EasternLI]

RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb.

[MJO812]

Brooklyn

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb.

Its struggling.  Less snow than the last run.

[T5403CG]

RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb.

Track seems further SE than other models...

Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its struggling.  Less snow than the last run.

Noise. Overall, the whole evolution has grown more impressive incrementally over time. Speaking only about the rgem. Bigtime event inbound.

[TriPol]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State
area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with
blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight.

All guidance has converged on the evolution, track, and
intensity of the system. There are some subtle differences with
the global models taking a 970 mb low close to the 40N/70W
benchmark by Monday morning, while the hires models are slightly
farther west. The latter could be the difference for even
higher snowfall amounts than currently forecast.

Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina
coast this morning and rapidly intensify this evening into
Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the
40N/70W benchmark. The 00Z ECMWF has come into better agreement
as it has generally been on the eastern envelope of the operational
guidance. This slight shift has resulted in the model QPF coming
more into line with the current forecast. Forecast liquid equivalent
amounts are mainly between 1.5 and 2 inches. Initially, snow
ratios will start out 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then
increasing to 12-14:1 by daybreak Monday as colder air wraps
around the system. NBM snow ratios have been consistently too
high through the event from start to finish. While deep-layered
lift in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) favors dendritic
growth and high ratios, high winds will likely result in fracturing
of the crystals, lowering rates. Putting this all together,
expect 1 to 2 ft across the tri-state. This is up a few inches
from the last forecast.

On the higher end, the NBM (01Z) supports 23 to 30 inches
across the area, due to a bit more QPF and the aforementioned
higher ratios. Its 90th percentile supports close to 3 ft across
much of the area. The NAMNest is also on the higher end with 2
to 3 inches of liquid equivalent. This is likely due to its more
westward track. The 06Z HRRR which is similar in its track is
very much in line with the current forecast. However, a
reasonable worst case could put totals up to 3 ft. While the
highest totals are expected along the coast, heavier bands of
snow (strong frontogenetic forcing) can rotate inland and
usually on the cold air side of the best forcing. These bands
are ofter a challenge to forecast and often leads to localized
higher amounts.

Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, will develop this
morning, mainly from NYC and points west. This initially is
associated with an inverted trough extending back to the NW
across the lower Great Lakes. In fact, as the coastal low
deepens later today, there may even be some drying out at the
leading edge of the precipitation shield. It may take until this
early this evening for steadier snow to arrive at the coast and
then overspread the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow
will occur during the overnight hours with 1-2"/hr rates and at
times as high 3"+/hr. The bulk of the snow will come from 7 pm
this evening to 7 am Monday. Snow this heavy combined with
strong winds will result in whiteout conditions. Visibilities
are expected to be below 1/4 mile for much of this time. Bands
of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning
within the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of
the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish
as the low pulls away Monday afternoon.

There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier
banding tonight into Monday morning. While not included in the
forecast, it cannot be ruled out.

Winds will be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings
show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent
mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55
mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast
CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but should
see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur
tonight into the first half of Monday.

The blizzard warnings were expanded to include Orange and Putnam
counties in the Lower Hudson valley due higher confidence in
considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility.

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State
area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with
blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight.

All guidance has converged on the evolution, track, and
intensity of the system. There are some subtle differences with
the global models taking a 970 mb low close to the 40N/70W
benchmark by Monday morning, while the hires models are slightly
farther west. The latter could be the difference for even
higher snowfall amounts than currently forecast.

Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina
coast this morning and rapidly intensify this evening into
Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the
40N/70W benchmark. The 00Z ECMWF has come into better agreement
as it has generally been on the eastern envelope of the operational
guidance. This slight shift has resulted in the model QPF coming
more into line with the current forecast. Forecast liquid equivalent
amounts are mainly between 1.5 and 2 inches. Initially, snow
ratios will start out 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then
increasing to 12-14:1 by daybreak Monday as colder air wraps
around the system. NBM snow ratios have been consistently too
high through the event from start to finish. While deep-layered
lift in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) favors dendritic
growth and high ratios, high winds will likely result in fracturing
of the crystals, lowering rates. Putting this all together,
expect 1 to 2 ft across the tri-state. This is up a few inches
from the last forecast.

On the higher end, the NBM (01Z) supports 23 to 30 inches
across the area, due to a bit more QPF and the aforementioned
higher ratios. Its 90th percentile supports close to 3 ft across
much of the area. The NAMNest is also on the higher end with 2
to 3 inches of liquid equivalent. This is likely due to its more
westward track. The 06Z HRRR which is similar in its track is
very much in line with the current forecast. However, a
reasonable worst case could put totals up to 3 ft. While the
highest totals are expected along the coast, heavier bands of
snow (strong frontogenetic forcing) can rotate inland and
usually on the cold air side of the best forcing. These bands
are ofter a challenge to forecast and often leads to localized
higher amounts.

Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, will develop this
morning, mainly from NYC and points west. This initially is
associated with an inverted trough extending back to the NW
across the lower Great Lakes. In fact, as the coastal low
deepens later today, there may even be some drying out at the
leading edge of the precipitation shield. It may take until this
early this evening for steadier snow to arrive at the coast and
then overspread the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow
will occur during the overnight hours with 1-2"/hr rates and at
times as high 3"+/hr. The bulk of the snow will come from 7 pm
this evening to 7 am Monday. Snow this heavy combined with
strong winds will result in whiteout conditions. Visibilities
are expected to be below 1/4 mile for much of this time. Bands
of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning
within the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of
the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish
as the low pulls away Monday afternoon.

There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier
banding tonight into Monday morning. While not included in the
forecast, it cannot be ruled out.

Winds will be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings
show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent
mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55
mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast
CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but should
see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur
tonight into the first half of Monday.

The blizzard warnings were expanded to include Orange and Putnam
counties in the Lower Hudson valley due higher confidence in
considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility.

 

Thundersnow 

[nycsnow]

Current view 

[nycsnow]

Gfs 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs 

That is insane lol

[nycsnow]

[WeatherFox]

“A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions.”

[The 4 Seasons]

OKX is now forecasting a top 10 all timer for NYC. This 20" amount would be tied with Boxing Day at #7. 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State
area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with
blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight.

 

quite a remarkable AFD. Never seen them mention 3 feet amounts other than the storm we don't talk about here

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, Metasequoia said:

I would love to know Snowman19's latest thoughts. 

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM
 

6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[dseagull]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM
 

6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Both Mt. Holly and Upton wholeheartedly disagree with your take, but we shall see.  I dont agree with some of the totals (region wide,) but there will certainly be some major jackpot areas over 2'.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Both Mt. Holly and Upton wholeheartedly disagree with your take, but we shall see.  I dont agree with some of the totals (region wide,) but there will certainly be some major jackpot areas over 2'.

I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this

[dseagull]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this

We shall see. GFS was consistent for days.  Unchanged, largely. 

 

As always, snow totals are always the focus... which has always fascinated me.   This will be a fairly historic blizzard for more, if for no other reason than the speed of pressure drop and potency of the low.   This is a textbook storm, and will be referenced for years to come.  I see zero evidence that this will be a region wide bust. 

[ILoveWinter]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM
 

6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Snowman makes an appearance only to put his cards on one of the least snowy models? Not much of a surprise there. 

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this

Because you like what it says. You can’t believe a storm can be this catastrophic. But we learned with Sandy that indeed, things can sometimes be catastrophic. But the experts who do this professionally are indeed worried and cannot just dismiss repeated modeling showing a widespread catastrophic snowfall. They would be remiss not to. Peace.

[Franklin0529]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the jackpots will be the Jersey shore, Long Island and New England as shown on the RGEM. I also think the NWS amounts are going to bust much too high. The NAM is on crack and it’s skewing the NBM which NWS loves to use. Not criticizing them just think they are going too much NAM and that’s a very huge mistake. I believe the RGEM is going to nail this

What about the GFS? That owned every other model on this storm? You're such a weenie. 

[Neblizzard]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here are my thoughts….i’m going with the RGEM. RGEM all the way. It’s been the most consistent for days and hasn’t budged. Great model. Makes the most sense. I think the NAM is about to go down in an epic flaming dumpster fire. It’s going to have its hugest bust ever. GFS has been downgrading amounts since Friday evening. Ride the RGEM
 

6z RGEM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026022206&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Have a Shirley temple.  It’s on me.