Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 39 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Mine did pretty well this winter so far! (I'm not doing it lol) You're one of the posters I respect the most so you have free rein to do whatever you want in regards to starting threads. You and Rob should have green tags. Bx and I are grateful for both of you. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Just can never remember so much flip flopping. It has had fails but this last week if runs was just horrendous. You look at the last 4 days of Euro runs and then compare it with this, it's actually crazy. Last 16 runs of the gfs 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: You're one of the posters I respect the most so you have free range to do whatever you want in regards to starting threads. You and Rob should have green tags. Bx and I are grateful for both of you. I have someone else in mind. @Allsnow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 Just now, jm1220 said: I have someone else in mind. @Allsnow We love him too lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 He's getting possibly the blizzard of the decade for our sub named after him just as Randy did in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Did anyone post the 3z RAP? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 SPC is forecasting a thundersnow risk! ...Discussion... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period. Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will lift north-northeast during the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection is not particularly high. Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along the northwest-north side of the cyclone. Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops within this warm-advection regime. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has a nice band near coastal NJ not too far south from NYC. Sometimes bands end up elsewhere than modeled. IMO its impossible for any model to pinpoint exactly where any extreme amounts will fall caused by banding - have seen that happen in many storms over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: Did anyone post the 3z RAP? Snows itself out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: Did anyone post the 3z RAP? That low does NOT want to move wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? One area I think that is overdone is the NAMS 42 inches on the Ocean County coast . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? Upton hedging with 3-23" lol Mt. Holly has a crazier 1-25" for Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snowfall rates can jackpot with thunder snow. Though I have seen it go either way. Either heavy snow, or a change to sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Sref is very consistent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO its impossible for any model to pinpoint exactly where any extreme amounts will fall caused by banding - have seen that happen in many storms over the years. They usually end up further NW than forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? One area I think that is overdone is the NAMS 42 inches on the Ocean County coast . Dry slot, boundary layer warms to mixed precip, storm track much further east of benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Is that stuff in central pa hitting the ground? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 14 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: Snowfall rates can jackpot with thunder snow. Though I have seen it go either way. Either heavy snow, or a change to sleet! 12/30/00 was sure as hell no change to sleet and that must've been 4" per hour when it was the once I heard thundersnow. Was literally blinding heavy snow. The rain line wasn't too far east in Suffolk County, Long Beach lucked out for once that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref is very consistent much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM Nam is too aggressive imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM Idk anyone who thinks this will drop 40 inches but 20"+ is certainly a decent possibility. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Latest NBM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Upton hedging with 3-23" lol Mt. Holly has a crazier 1-25" for Philadelphia "I'm playing both sides that way I always end up on top" Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What are current NWS forecasts for the contest sites? I will put those into the contest (30 entries, now closed). Never mind, I found the map ... 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK, 17.1" EWR ... I am sure I saw higher values earlier so they have cut back slightly. They don't specify LGA so I took a map interpolation for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, TriPol said: I thought the story was that he died of natural causes. I checked with three different AI programs, ChatGPT, perplexity, and Grok and two of three say official cause was natural causes. ChatGPT which I originally used without checking the others did have the suicide story but apparently that's incorrect. Should have known better than to trust one source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 HRRR drops 25 inches on nyc 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: HRRR drops 25 inches on nyc How? Weather balloon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: What are current NWS forecasts for the contest sites? I will put those into the contest (30 entries, now closed). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Thanks, Don, I found an earlier version that was a bit less aggressive. Will use your later one instead. What would you say for LGA (they don't specify) ... I will say 21.5" given the other data. These were the earlier ones 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK ... 17.1" EWR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Thanks, Don, I found an earlier version that was a bit less aggressive. Will use your later one instead. What would you say for LGA (they don't specify) ... I will say 21.5" given the other data. These were the earlier ones 17.1" NYC, (est 18" LGA) ... 20.3" ISP ... 19.3" JFK ... 17.1" EWR Seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now