It's coming 1/31-2/1

[cleetussnow]

30 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

Lmao. I know the set ups are completely different. It’s just been a while since we’ve had a miller A work out in our favor


.

Let's just stomp this idea out right now.  This is not going to cut.  The closest we would get is a coastal runner, and that's going to be a dry(er) solution for most - and is not likely with a 530 DAM isobar over Kentucky.  No.

[North and West]

Let's just stomp this idea out right now.  This is not going to cut.  The closest we would get is a coastal runner, and that's going to be a dry(er) solution for most - and is not likely with a 530 DAM isobar over Kentucky.  No.

I hope you’re correct, and you know more than I do. My main concern would be a thaw + rain.


.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

9 minutes ago, North and West said:

I hope you’re correct, and you know more than I do. My main concern would be a thaw + rain.


.

Better chance of OTS  than cutting

[203whiteout]

I got 30” on LI

Big one for me in CT was Nemo in 2013. 40”


.

[TJW014]

I think the biggest uncertainty we're going to have with this system is the energy coming from northern Canada. That has a lot to interact with over the next few days as it does a 360 degree loop over James Bay. 

[Prue11]

10 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

Big one for me in CT was Nemo in 2013. 40”


.

Yeah 30” for me during that one on LI

[donsutherland1]

IMO, this remains a closer call than with the most recent storm where I believed it would not be suppressed. I still think the most likely scenarios are either up the coast (track and distance from the coast to be determined) or out-to-sea (lesser probability). The scenario of an inland cutter is probably the lowest probability right now. This is based on the forecast pattern. Synoptic details can't be resolved accurately at this timeframe. We'll see where things are by Wednesday or Thursday.

[NEG NAO]

4 hours ago, BoulderWX said:

 

Still can go OTS or just close enough IMO

[Prue11]

We have a ways to go with this one. Going to be a fun week

[NEG NAO]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, this remains a closer call than with the most recent storm where I believed it would not be suppressed. I still think the most likely scenarios are either up the coast (track and distance from the coast to be determined) or out-to-sea (lesser probability). The scenario of an inland cutter is probably the lowest probability right now. This is based on the forecast pattern. Synoptic details can't be resolved accurately at this timeframe. We'll see where things are by Wednesday or Thursday.

For NYC have any 2 storms on record had accumulations over 10 inches each within a week of each other ? 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

For NYC have any 2 storms on record had accumulations over 10 inches each within a week of each other ? And was one of them over 12 inches ?

1994 Feb 8/9 (10)and Feb 11 (12.8)

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

For NYC have any 2 storms on record had accumulations over 10 inches each within a week of each other ? 

New York City has seen just one 10" or above snowstorm one week or less following a 10" or above snowstorm: February 3-4, 1926 (10.4") and February 9-10, 1926 (12.4"). The shortest interval between 10" or above daily snowfalls is 14 days: March 2, 1896 (10.0") and March 16, 1896 (12.0"). Records go back to 1869.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1994 Feb 8/9 (10)and Feb 11 (12.8)

February 8-9, 1994 is listed as having 9.0".

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

I got 30” on LI

Hi Tat, I remember you from the old NYC Metro forum.

While reminiscing...how did you do with the great [forgotten]storm of 1978?  Third week of January(?).  It was a blown forecast; it was supposed to change to rain.

I got 16 inches, here.  Ended with a period of freezing rain/drizzle which left a shiny glaze on the surface.  I wish I had a photo.
 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City has seen just one 10" or above snowstorm one week or less following a 10" or above snowstorm: February 3-4, 1926 (10.4") and February 9-10, 1926 (12.4"). The shortest interval between 10" or above daily snowfalls is 14 days: March 2, 1896 (10.0") and March 16, 1896 (12.0"). Records go back to 1869.

So this would be a once in a   lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City has seen just one 10" or above snowstorm one week or less following a 10" or above snowstorm: February 3-4, 1926 (10.4") and February 9-10, 1926 (12.4"). The shortest interval between 10" or above daily snowfalls is 14 days: March 2, 1896 (10.0") and March 16, 1896 (12.0"). Records go back to 1869.

Well that stat says keep your enthusiasm in check.

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

February 8-9, 1994 is listed as having 9.0".

It was maybe Central Park so safe to round to 10

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

So this would be a once in a   lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together

Yes, assuming it occurs.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

So this would be a once in a   lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together

If this storm hits the way it looks, this would be a HECS. 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It was maybe Central Park so safe to round to 10

Central Park and JFK Airport had < 10". LaGuardia had 10".

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park and JFK Airport had < 10". LaGuardia had 10".

I would assume that never happened in recorded history within a week of each other - in NYC. BUT it p[robably happened way back when in that area - Maybe when Moses was still wearing short pants........

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Well that stat says keep your enthusiasm in check.

Well just because Central Park can't, there's a much bigger forum area out there that can.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

So this would be a once in a   lifetime event(s) 2 MECS so close together

We could end up with a moderate event say 4-6 inches-that's on the table too

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

This is NOT where you wana be 5/6 days out lol. This will end up a cutter if this trends anything like ANY big storm ever


.

I wouldn't say every big storm has trended that way.

[SACRUS]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

February 8-9, 1994 is listed as having 9.0".

Thanks, Don

 

NYC: 1994

February 8	22	14	0.82	7.2
February 9	19	14	0.47	1.8
February 10	19	7	0.00	0.0
February 11	25	15	1.09	12.8

 

 

LGA:

February 8	24	15	0.80	9.2
February 9	20	14	0.34	1.3
February 10	18	7	0.00	0.0
February 11	26	16	0.70	9.6

 

 

EWR:

2/8-2/9: 12.9
2/11:  17 (* many have talked of this to be skewed but SI had similar totals from my recollection) 
 

JFK:
2/8 -9 : 9.5
2/11: 11

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We could end up with a moderate event say 4-6 inches-that's on the table too

yes the odds would favor that you would think - BUT it still can be a MECS at least can't discount it yet IMO

[Brian5671]

2/5/10 and 2/10/10 was a close miss....

[JonClaw]

18z GFS about 185 miles SE, OTS after dropping some snow on Georgia and the Carolinas.

[Brian5671]

Go with ensembles at this range-OP models still a bit out of range

[Tatamy]

29 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi Tat, I remember you from the old NYC Metro forum.

While reminiscing...how did you do with the great [forgotten]storm of 1978?  Third week of January(?).  It was a blown forecast; it was supposed to change to rain.

I got 16 inches, here.  Ended with a period of freezing rain/drizzle which left a shiny glaze on the surface.  I wish I had a photo.
 

There was 17” inches where I was.  I was a junior in HS at the time and had never seen something of that nature that I was old enough to remember.  The 70s and 80s were lean times for snow lovers in the NY area.  Snow changed to mixed precipitation during the day before it ended.  My only source of weather info at the time was WINS and WCBS plus TV news at night.  People have it so much better today.