Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[eduggs]

With this kind of high amplitude trof hanging back over the central US on the RGEM there's a chance a surface reflection lingers on Monday and we could score a bit more snow. SNE has a better chance, but we still have a shot to extend this.

 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

Basically unchanged. Maybe a tick drier

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Mixing by 5/6 PM

 

 

 

Primary problems 

[winterwarlock]

why did they have to go 18 inches though...why not 8-14 that seems more appropriate..IMO its because they have fallen in love with the nbm 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Basically unchanged. Maybe a tick drier

Can see the dry slot in Jersey 

[Wannabehippie]

It is all going to be about how close that secondary low is tucked in to the coast off of NJ. Even a small move east or west will affect if/when we change over. Right now they all, except for the GFS, want to tuck that secondary low fairly close to NJ before moving away.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

If you want less sleet you seem to want either the primary to die early and coastal to form well south of the area (best case scenario for NYC and points south and east) or the primary dies out and coastal is weak and it's snow to a dry slot, the rgem has a pretty strong secondary tracking close to the coast hence the prolonged sleet, at least that's how I'm reading it. Personally I wouldn't mind prolonged sleet vs dry slot but if you don't want sleet you probably want a surpressed and south secondary I'd think.

[eduggs]

ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam.

[Wxbear25]

8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

If you want less sleet you seem to want either the primary to die early and coastal to form well south of the area (best case scenario for NYC and points south and east) or the primary dies out and coastal is weak and it's snow to a dry slot, the rgem has a pretty strong secondary tracking close to the coast hence the prolonged sleet, at least that's how I'm reading it. Personally I wouldn't mind prolonged sleet vs dry slot but if you don't want sleet you probably want a surpressed and south secondary I'd think.

Sleet isn’t caused by the surface reflection, it’s caused by the mid-levels.

If you want less sleet, you either want less well defined mid-level features to the west so the warm tongue isn’t as strong (It would also result in less precip due to less WAA, but still) or you want the entire thing to shift southeast

 

[Wannabehippie]

7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

If you want less sleet you seem to want either the primary to die early and coastal to form well south of the area (best case scenario for NYC and points south and east) or the primary dies out and coastal is weak and it's snow to a dry slot, the rgem has a pretty strong secondary tracking close to the coast hence the prolonged sleet, at least that's how I'm reading it. Personally I wouldn't mind prolonged sleet vs dry slot but if you don't want sleet you probably want a surpressed and south secondary I'd think.

UKie is currently showing a weaker secondary that doesn't really get going until it is south of Cape Cod.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam.

Where do you see 2 feet?

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam.

Its' all about trends now...we are aware of the mixing gradient

[SHELEG]

Icon looks nasty.

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18Z

Total QPF / Snow/Sleet (10:1)

NAM (84H): 1.2 / (9.7)
RGEM: 1.1 / (7.0)
GFS: 1.4 /  (13.5)
GEFS: 1.5 / (12.8)
Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / (12.1)

[eduggs]

We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

[winterwarlock]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam.

i think its a joke model but that is has backed off and is usually a snow lovers dream may be saying something..its now the least snowiest model out there

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

We probably won't know until Saturday or Sunday since a hour or two quicker transfer means a huge difference in ptype. 

[TriPol]

22 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yeah that’s the best call. More in the very northern parts of NJ and NYS is looking at 12-16

There are no weather models or forecasts that show this.

[BoulderWX]

No idea how mt Holly is coming up with widespread 12-18. This is going to be a great storm but those numbers state wide are insane. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Where do you see 2 feet?

Kuchera.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, TriPol said:

There are no weather models or forecasts that show this.

That shows what? 

[Metasequoia]

Would the 18Z Icon be snow to sleet for NYC?

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

No idea how mt Holly is coming up with widespread 12-18. This is going to be a great storm but those numbers state wide are insane. 

They start high and then adjust lower 

central Jersey will be in 4-8 range by tomorrow 

south Jersey will be 3-6 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

i think its a joke model but that is has backed off and is usually a snow lovers dream may be saying something..its now the least snowiest model out there

12z GFS was snowier but let's see if it holds now. 

[TriPol]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

That shows what? 

North and West receiving more snow than NYC mid to south NJ or Eastern LI. Excluding the ICON (a joke) everyone gives the immediate NYC area more snow.

[BoulderWX]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

They start high and then adjust lower 

Yes I know I just think it’s wildly high based on guidance. I have no doubt the they’ll adjust downward by tomorrow.  

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

If you follow the new england forum they will disagree. It has not been a stellar season at all, including NNE. Only the upslope areas have really done well. Everyone else is average. 

Also, good luck basing your forecast on the Icon.

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

There are no weather models or forecasts that show this.

odd post...most models are showing 6-12 not 12-18

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

I wouldn't hug an unreliable model, we know this is a possible outcome but no other model is showing that sharp of a cutoff and widespread 20+ amounts north of NYC.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

Well they average like 5x we do so yeah