Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so Central park is getting 18 inches

Still 4 days out

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Still 4 days out

i know im posting it on my weather page i think its going to end up being a good forecast!

 

will post snowmap later

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Still 4 days out

Less then 4 days.

[SACRUS]

 

1.00 - 1.25 now centered in the NYC/NJ area

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i know im posting it on my weather page i think its going to end up being a good forecast!

 

will post snowmap later

I've tracked storms long enough to 4 days is still an eternity for things to change. I will say given the wide swath of precip and depth of the cold there's enough wiggle room in all directions where I can't see that much going wrong with this. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I've seen enough, i'm making my forecast completely based on the Euro AI model. I think it's the best model and it hasn't wavered at all for this storm or the last one! I will add the the ratio on this so we're getting 1.2 corbin going with 15:1 on my forecast so Central park is getting 18 inches

I'm not gonna say it's impossible because in this set up, they could get near 18 inches. What is impossible is them ever accurately measuring 18 inches. Especially in a long duration storm, they usually f up as only they can. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm not gonna say it's impossible because in this set up, they could get near 18 inches. What is impossible is them ever accurately measuring 18 inches. Especially in a long duration storm, they usually f up as only they can. 

my forecast

 

Central Park 18

Boston 18

Washington DC 19

Philladelphia 17

[Jt17]

I'm not gonna say it's impossible because in this set up, they could get near 18 inches. What is impossible is them ever accurately measuring 18 inches. Especially in a long duration storm, they usually f up as only they can. 

Even the steam grate CP measures their snow on top of should be frozen this time.


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[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

I wonder if models are holding onto the primary too long. 

[Franklin0529]

Storm starts in what 90 hrs? Beautiful place to be. Biggest snow storm in 10 years

[Winterweatherlover]

Looks like temps start in the single digits during the storm, max out in the mid 20s in NYC.

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Storm starts in what 90 hrs? Beautiful place to be. Biggest snow storm in 10 years

Doubt it'll top January 28-29 for us coasties. Had 20.5" here, but everyone will get to enjoy this one 

[eduggs]

The ECMWF is 12-18 hours of snow then light mix/dryslot with possibly some steadier mix or snow at the tail end. That would include a very solid "thump."

[Wannabehippie]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Looks like temps start in the single digits during the storm, max out in the mid 20s in NYC.

Depending on the wind direction, do you think that even the mid 20's might be overdoing it?

The soundings I am seeing across the models are incredibly cold

 

[Jt17]

GFS and Euro AI would be a lot more fun than this run of the Euro. All the whining that the dryslot arrived too soon and it it's drizzling even after 10-12 inches of snow would be annoying. lol


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[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if models are holding onto the primary too long. 

Only if the upper levels as depicted are too amped. If future runs are a little "flatter," the primary will weaken sooner.

[WeatherGeek2025]

is there an app i could use to make a professional snowmap?

[TriPol]

I'm gonna get weenie tagged for this, but...

With over 1 inch of precip, temps in the single digits, teens and 20s...

I think this is underdone. I think NYC gets 18 to 24 inches if we get over 1 inch of precip. Other factors will, of course, be the wind and the thermal profile, especially how quickly the column cools once rates increase and whether we get sustained banding.

 

[brooklynwx99]

everything still looks good here for a significant snowfall, some sleet potential at the end when precip is dying down notwithstanding

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

GFS and Euro AI would be a lot more fun than this run of the Euro. All the whining that the dryslot arrived too soon and it it's drizzling even after 10-12 inches of snow would be annoying. lol


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That would be the biggest storm in years. If you're complaining about that then find a new hobby 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Looks like temps start in the single digits during the storm, max out in the mid 20s in NYC.

The ECM and CMC show upper 20s at NYC late Sunday night. With flatter solutions a day ago, this was low 20s.

[Jt17]

That would be the biggest storm in years. If you're complaining about that then find a new hobby 

I'm not going to complain. I'm telling you what's going to happen in this forum because it happens every time.


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[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is there an app i could use to make a professional snowmap?

what do you mean by making? There are free websites that offer premium services, like pivotalweather, and tropicaltidbits to view weather model maps. Not sure about making one.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I'm gonna get weenie tagged for this, but...

With over 1 inch of precip, temps in the single digits, teens and 20s...

I think this is underdone. I think NYC gets 18 to 24 inches if we get over 1 inch of precip. Other factors will, of course, be the wind and the thermal profile, especially how quickly the column cools once rates increase and whether we get sustained banding.

 

I like 12-18 inches right now

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The ECMWF is 12-18 hours of snow then light mix/dryslot with possibly some steadier mix or snow at the tail end. That would include a very solid "thump."

Euro has it starting early Sunday morning with the heaviest during the day.

[SACRUS]

 

12Z Euro Total QPF storm

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I like 12-18 inches right now

I'd go 6-10 or 8-12

[eduggs]

I don't mind a little sleet. But with the way the UK, ECM, and CMC are evolving, the duration of overrunning is shortening. The ptype mix is indicating that the best dynamics have shifted north and we get dryslotted. If precip. blossoms thereafter as the hang-back trof approaches and a new surface reflection forms south of LI, then that would change the tenor and mitigate any lull. It could be the difference between a relatively quick hitting 6-10" and a long duration 10-18".