Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory 

no dude it'll be snowing heavily all day tomorrow! changing to sleet north of let's say Mahopac it'll stay all snow! It's going to be an over performer in my opinion people are going to be thinking all the sleet meanwhile the thump will overperform and stack

[kat5hurricane]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the models are even right with the progression of the sleet line.  Nothing except the outlier nam shows 4 or 5 inches. 

The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the models are even right with the progression of the sleet line.  Nothing except the outlier nam shows 4 or 5 inches. 

Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Your post is making it like the area isn’t seeing much lol…. I’m 30 miles north of the city and still could see a foot. 

Absolutely, like I said there are differences between this and most SWFEs. If we get clobbered for 5-6 hours before the sleet we’ll all do very well and no one will complain. Last Feb we did well, on the high end of expectations, Nov 2018 is another example and there are others where the snow came in gangbusters. But fundamentally this is a SWFE and the overall setup isn’t favorable for NYC heavy snow. Hopefully we luck out. And 30 miles north of the city, I assume in N Westchester maybe you won’t see much sleet and we dryslot before it comes. But on the low end we have to acknowledge the NAM is a possibility if we get crappy rates/snow growth to start. 

[Rmine1]

433
FXUS61 KOKX 241529
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1029 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with the forecast for the upcoming major
winter storm and prolonged cold conditions.

&&

Upton pre GFS. “No significant changes”Wait and see what changes(if any) in the next update.

regardless, if we can squeeze out snowfall rates of 1-2” per hour for 6-8 hours, we should still end up with a very significant snowfall. Then the sleet will just turn everything into cement. With extended cold in the forecast, whatever is left ain’t going anywhere fast

This is still going to be an extremely impactful event regardless of the potential mixing 

 

 

[Juturna]

As long as it’s messy enough to close school Monday, I’ll take it. Handicapped, and my snow cleaning crew ain’t digging me out till Monday I’m sure. My town has already canceled garbage pickup Monday as well.

[Snowman92]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The stores were a mess yesterday.  Schools might also close on Monday .

I know I am 40 miles straight NW of Sheepshead Bay now. Used to live there.

Costco here in Bergen was a warzone. I may squeeze out 12" but the craze around the boroughs was not required. Just stay off the roads in the ice

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual.

NAM sucks! I would toss but yes we will sleet maybe up to White Plains and than that sleet line will collapse again!

[jm1220]

I mean look, it’s not like we’re surging into the 40s after this and the snow/ice will be gone. It will be a very dense 6, 8 inches or whatever that will last a long time and over time will congeal into cement. NYC will have the same water content in whatever falls as Albany. 

[SACRUS]

15z RAP still snowing at 6PM FWIW

 

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual.

Could very well be right. But the nam and icon alone atm

[nycsnow]

The rap is pretty consistent showing this but how is the RAP with thermals?

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Could very well be right. But the nam and icon alone atm

The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer.

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down.

Primary could end up being a bit weaker which may prevent the changeover for an hour or two. This could add a few or even several inches to the totals.

[nycsnow]

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down.

So the models are never wrong with a storm ? We never had positive busts ?

Models are computer generated.  Lets see how the storm progresses tomorrow.  

[wxman]

The Rap is a foot plus forum wide.  Hoping and praying LOL

[nycsnow]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer.

For nyc area it was within an inch of what it showed for 6z

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I mean look, it’s not like we’re surging into the 40s after this and the snow/ice will be gone. It will be a very dense 6, 8 inches or whatever that will last a long time and over time will congeal into cement. NYC will have the same water content in whatever falls as Albany. 

Temperature will be below freezing throughout the storm

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, wxman said:

According to Gemini (aka "ask Jeeves"):

 

In 2026, the FV3 model (specifically in its High-Resolution Window and GFS implementations) is noted for a more conservative approach to "warm noses" (elevated layers of air above freezing) compared to older models like the NAM. 

 

Warm Nose Prediction Characteristics

• Layer Integrity: The FV3 tends to maintain colder column integrity better than the NAM. In winter weather setups, it often predicts a weaker or later-arriving warm nose, which can lead to forecasts for more persistent snow while other models might suggest an earlier transition to sleet or rain.

Sounds like it's averaging every post about it that has ever appeared in this forum.  A bit of circular reasoning going on?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer.

Sleet counts towards snow amounts . Its going to be cold tomorrow.  

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

So the models are never wrong with a storm ? We never had positive busts ?

Models are computer generated.  Lets see how the storm progresses tomorrow.  

Theres a primary pumping warm air and upper level lows tracking to the northwest, theres no reason for this not to change to sleet, it's not like it's even on the fence, the sleet line is to near I84 on the latest models. I am not saying we can't still get significant snow if the front end produces but the sleet is inevitable. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Juturna said:

As long as it’s messy enough to close school Monday, I’ll take it. Handicapped, and my snow cleaning crew ain’t digging me out till Monday I’m sure. My town has already canceled garbage pickup Monday as well.

Dsny will most likely not pick up garbage on Monday .

[Jt17]

The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer.

12z was snowier than 6z from overnight actually. It looks basically the same and is 100 miles south of the NAM


.

[SACRUS]

 

FWIW RAP - seems to always be the coldest in these situations

15Z

QPF

 

 

Sow (10:1) 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Theres a primary pumping warm air and upper level lows tracking to the northwest, theres no reason for this not to change to sleet, it's not like it's even on the fence, the sleet line is to near I84 on the latest models. I am not saying we can't still get significant snow if the front end produces but the sleet is inevitable. 

I agree. Im saying we dont know when that will happen. 

[nycsnow]

Backend snow included

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Temperature will be below freezing throughout the storm

Most likely yes except NJ coast and possibly southeast Suffolk. 

[donsutherland1]

The RGEM is late. Again.

Right now, taking into consideration the early 12z guidance, my thinking is that a reasonable worst-case (least snowy) outcome for New York City is 5" (no real change from previous thinking). A reasonable best case is 12" (down 2" from previous thinking). For now, I'm still thinking that a 6"-12" range for storm total snow and sleet captures the most likely scenarios.  Well north and west of the City, 12"-18" still appears likely. Areas south and east of the City and its nearby suburbs down to the central Jersey Shore and on eastern Long Island are in line for 4"-8". 

As a note, I am not fixated on any single model. My thinking takes into consideration the full range. No model has been dismissed at this time. Moreover, 100% of individual EPS members had a 6" or greater snowfall. I do think that the 12z HRRR was too snowy for New York City, but we'll see what the later guidance shows. By 18z and especially 0z, differences among the various models should narrow dramatically. 

All in all, this will still be New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or perhaps five years. Personally, given the long snow drought, including the record 1,456 consecutive days without a 4" or greater daily snowfall (that includes today), I'll gladly accept the outcome that appears likely. Of course, I appreciate even the smaller events.

[wilton_wx]

RAP tends to be good at less than 20 hours, once it gets farther out its tough to tell.  I think the NAM/GFS might be too progressive with the warm air.