Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Friendly reminder 6z is usually full of shenanigans, let's keep the overreactions either way in check!


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I think you mean 18z an 6z (18z up next) and there’s much debate on how accurate that is. But your point about overreactions is valid lol

[Brian5671]

18Z GFS late last week had a crazy run with 30-50 inches of snow in PA and some nearby places-it was gone on the next run-but yeah the 18Z run (happy hour run) has shown some crazy solutions over the years

[Winterweatherlover]

19 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Friendly reminder 6z is usually full of shenanigans, let's keep the overreactions either way in check!


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At least we aren't in range yet to get 18Z Nam'ed. 

[Jt17]

I think you mean 18z an 6z (18z up next) and there’s much debate on how accurate that is. But your point about overreactions is valid lol

Oops yea meant 18z, but same applies to 6z lol


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[Brasiluvsnow]

I cant get over how they spit out amounts and predictions 5 days in advance as IMO its a joke,,,,,,here is what a quick search said for my area Sunday and Sunday nite = 

Sunday Day -Watching a potential winter storm. Cloudy with snow. High 12F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Sunday Night 11°

Watching a potential winter storm. Occasional snow showers. Low 11F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Icon is a bit south probably around 30 miles or so! 

[Joe4alb]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Icon is a bit south probably around 30 miles or so! 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

 

Actually its slightly north 

[NJwx85]

The GFS should be better this run. It’s ejecting the Southern energy faster and the Northern piece is a hair slower and further West.

[Franklin0529]

Yea the icon would've been a foot Plus. Gfs looking much better early on also 

[NJwx85]

The GFS is now very similar to the Euro with how it handles the Southern trough. Let’s see if it holds.

[Franklin0529]

GFS AI way north 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS should be better this run. It’s ejecting the Southern energy faster and the Northern piece is a hair slower and further West.

Just about to post that hopefully it hooks up with the northern branch 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Just about to post that hopefully it hooks up with the northern branch 

It’s already beginning to interact at 06z Saturday. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/20 18Z Total QPF

ICON: (120H)  in line with 12z
GFS: 0.3 - 0.4
GFS AID: 0.5 - 0.6
GEFS: 0.6 
Euro AI AIFS:  0.6 - 0.7
Euro : 0.9 - 1.1(+) through and more to come (144H)

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Actually its slightly north 

the low is ur right but the precip is a bit sharper and that's south. Good thing is the low is north and stronger that's what we need. sorry about that

[NJwx85]

She’s about to go boom

 

[SACRUS]

 

GFS AIFS Total QPF

[MJO812]

Gfs AI is well north

[Mr. T.]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

She’s about to go boom

 

Gotta look at the 500 maps! Keep posting (amazing to see a good phase if it happens).

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If the temp is 30-31 with the heavy freezing rain absolutely-a lot will just run off. When it gets below about 28 or so much more of it will accrete. 

Agree.  The pictured event took place with temperatures between 28 and 30.  It caused widespread power outages 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s already beginning to interact at 06z Saturday. 

Seems like its been slowly trending towards doing more of that too. Here's the last 7 runs.

[NJwx85]

Much better

[NJwx85]

Going to be a big hit. Surface is way North.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Going to be a big hit. Surface is way North.

Yep

[BoulderWX]

IF GFS is right, I'm going to see my family in NC - would be a once in a lifetime snowstorm for them verbatim

[BoulderWX]

Big improvement from 12z but does skirt east before the benchmark; nice run though 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Big improvement from 12z but does skirt east before the benchmark; nice run though 

There was no snow up here on 12z.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Big improvement from 12z but does skirt east before the benchmark; nice run though 

gfs catching up

[cleetussnow]

GFS made a big move north.  Wagons North.  Trends aligning favorable