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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

I prefer the 12z to the 18z; both have roughly the same snow but 18z has more rain over the corridor 

Probably wiser to pay more attention to the 500mb changes at this range and not so much r/s lines and amounts just yet. We saw some positive things all around at 18z. Now we rest up for Dr No in a couple hours.

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Now is the time we wish we had a kicker closing in. 

Except the kicker phases and tugs the now NNW. How often is a low that tracks over Mertle Beach and Wilmington NC “too far west”.  I’m starting to really rethink the order of what’s most important. Honestly it’s like 90% the phasing with the enegy behind. If the storms going to cut NNW due to that it really doesn’t matter what’s going on before that. Although the further SE start does give us a few more hours in the cold sector which matters when it’s snowing 1-2”/hr. Plus makes for an earlier occlusion which will limit the warm air intrusion west of the track. But to get a “clean” storm and a track east of the bay we really need a delayed phase or slower phase with the backside energy. 

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