Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

Geez, so conservative. We can always bump up if needed. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 17
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even verbatim the Op Euro would produce massive front end snow to the coast...the air mass in place ahead of it is fairly cold despite the high exiting.  Models at this range in such setups as that will never resolve thermals correctly...you'd hold a 040-050 wind for an extended period there with snow and would not flip over til the 850 low was almost here.

If you look at the boundary level on the 12z Euro at 10m you will have a stiff easterly flow across LI and along the Jersey shore.  Ocean temps are in the upper 40s which is 5-8 degrees above normal for this time of the year.  That will not hold the cold air in those coastal areas.  The ageostrophic flow which will be present just inland with the vector you described will hold that cold air at least for a time there.  I do not see massive front snow to the coast with this run.  In any case it’s all hypothetical at this point anyways.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

Like my Italian grandfather used to say, “Madone”.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was just about to post that lol Even if this thing was to play out as the op Euro just depicted, that would be a heavy front end dump to rain to dry slot. What you definitely don’t want is for it to cut any further west than what it just did

Of course that track seems extinct these days...it seems now its benchmark or east or west of the Apps...the track over top of us seems to never happen anymore for whatever reason

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

30+ inches lol Without a -NAO block in place? Lol good luck with that 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was just about to post that lol Even if this thing was to play out as the op Euro just depicted, that would be a heavy front end dump to rain to dry slot. What you definitely don’t want is for it to cut any further west than what it just did

Yeah, the high in place before the storm would help get everyone a front end dump. If it were to track further west then that would be in jeopardy 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Of course that track seems extinct these days...it seems now its benchmark or east or west of the Apps...the track over top of us seems to never happen anymore for whatever reason

Fast Pac flow?   You are right-seems like more offshore tracks past 10+ yrs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If it does track inland that means it fully phased and would likely be extremely strong (960s) aka major coastal flooding/winds. 

Really bad timing with full moon on Monday

However given our pattern thus far a big inland cutters seems unlikely. Atlantic City has a top 5 snowy Jan already.

The coastal low is the more favored track. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think any attempt to track inland will play out as a double-centered tucked storm, the 500 mb evolution does not support much inland movement of mild air, but of course the North Atlantic is remarkably warm just offshore too, whether that remains true after the earlier storm comes and goes through the Gulf of Maine remains to be seen. My numbers are based on this model consensus for rapid or explosive deepening verifying, if later model runs back off that idea then I would withdraw those numbers. Snowfall rates of 3-4" an hour are possible with that kind of explosive development. But I do anticipate a large gradient as I said, a lot of the NYC metro could see mixing so snowfalls might be around 9-15" for many, 15-24" across parts of n NJ and Yonkers-White Plains, 24-30" further north and west. It would come down for about 24h at 1-3" an hour in some places (if these early indications prove correct). Would say there is more potential for the eventual track to be east rather than west of what is now shown, a certain amount east is good in general for snow potential, especially with similar rapid development. Blizzard of Feb 1899 not that different an evolution from what I can see on historical maps, of course the depth of inland cold air greater and probably the Atlantic not as warm, but track is quite similar. That storm gave NYC 16" and DC 20" (in the city rather than at DCA location now). Some similarity to 93 storm but can't see this tracking into the Hudson valley or even New England as the 500 mb low tracks northeast rather than north-northeast or north. 

Anyway, exciting winter compared to how it was looking in December. Like the grips guy says on the golf commercial, feels good huh?

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, LIJohn said:

For Long Island, is this going to be a blizzard or rain/coastal flooding type of event?

 

35 minutes ago, LIJohn said:

Is there a realistic chance of snow or is more than likely rain?

 

 

33 minutes ago, LIJohn said:

Dude, ok.

Good afternoon John. I generally should but rarely do take the “read more before you post”, advice from the well versed forum members. For instance don’t ask i m b y questions and more. Be respectful to the pro Mets and harassed moderators and fellow forum members .. all easier said. I have found it a lot more fun to listen to the member opinions backed by various model opinions to be both educational and entertaining. I’ve actually learned a few things, very few, but still real. As you read you will feel the passion and strengths of the forum membership. Again my favorite. I look forward to the Hot topic red tag which usually appears when computer projections start having fun with us. Finally never take a weenie comment personally. Im sure all the givers have also been on the receiving end. It’s a badge of initiation so in your case well done along with your ‘like’ and ‘laughter’ comments. I prefer the weenie emoji rather than several other,  less flattering that could have been used. Stay well, enjoy reading and ‘still’, never hesitate to comment when you feel the need. As always …

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Too early to tell.  

Given the current state of the tele's, combined with a storm bombing out in the deep South, I really do not see this as a storm for the immediate coast. Someone is going to get a serious blizzard, however, that someone is unlikely to be the coast Imo. Would love to be wrong, though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • wdrag changed the title to East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...