East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[EasternLI]

It's ensemble time range right now. OP runs are fun to speculate on.

[mikem81]

I see maybe 2 rain storms on this map

[SnoSki14]

For shits & giggles Icon is OTS so don't worry about OP runs.

[eduggs]

That's an impressive H5 progression on the GFS. Suddenly there looks to be nothing to stop this from blasting precip. back to Toronto, Ottawa, and even deeper into the Quebec interior. SLP in ALB is not a great track for us. And this could probably go to Syracuse. I take little comfort from the ensembles. Hopefully 0z at least stops the bleeding and we can start clawing back some ground.

[SnoSki14]

Two runs ago it whiffed and you think it's going to Syracuse?

The OP run is further west than the westernmost ensemble track. 

Does that mean it can't eventually be an inland runner, no, but it's way too early to jump the gun. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

I see maybe 2 rain storms on this map

Yep op is an outlier 

[Yanksfan]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep op is an outlier 

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

I see maybe 2 rain storms on this map

Stay right there…

[EasternLI]

Jim is awesome and this is a great thread to summarize the situation.

 

[wdrag]

HI!  Glad there is still a ballgame for the weekend.  Will post an updated thread title at 8am Wednesday when I know I have the time. 
 

Will do a a semi thorough review at 1030pm but not attempt a successful adjustment til 8am Wed.   Suspect will also start the Friday morning thread at 8am Wed.
 

Everything needs to be on the table in advance in the forum  we learn from each other.

Fwiw, the 17z WPC D4-6 do not have the 12z ensembles incorporated.   Tonight’s 5z issuance should be, Ithink a little further west and confident of a substantial event near ATL to interior N.C.  VA.  
 

more as time allows overnight or Wed AM.  On call. Walt

[MJO812]

[EasternLI]

[Franklin0529]

Eps pretty far east. Anything from suppressed to inland runners on the table.

[jm1220]

We have a few days before we start needing to worry about track. The big signal for now is a storm, not much else specifically. 

[Yanksfan]

15 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Eps pretty far east. Anything from suppressed to inland runners on the table.

I think it’s safe to say an OTS track is off the table. The ensembles  are east of the OP cause it’s showing stronger confluence hence the offshore track. My gut tells me it goes to the BM or just inside.

[White Gorilla]

It would be quite something if we are looking at a potential triple phaser.  Keeping expectations reasonable for now and the possibility of a swing and a miss.  Big storm signal is nice to see for sure. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yesterday: 

Storm absolutely crushed ots.

Today:

Storm absolutely cutting inside.

Only 5 days left to hold it exactly how it's shown today. 

what exactly is causing such a variance in tracks? Isn't there some kind of error correction code that can be programmed into these models to make them not vary so much?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Jim is awesome and this is a great thread to summarize the situation.

 

"thread the needle" is the most important group of words to take from that

[TheManWithNoFace]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what exactly is causing such a variance in tracks? Isn't there some kind of error correction code that can be programmed into these models to make them not vary so much?

 

There's subtle input differences that lead to a distinct bifurcation of potential outcomes. 

[Shades]

48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what exactly is causing such a variance in tracks? Isn't there some kind of error correction code that can be programmed into these models to make them not vary so much?

 

Chaos theory

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/chaos-theory

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

"thread the needle" is the most important group of words to take from that

We could really use some confluence to force an offshore track. A vigorous trough like that will want to cut somewhere. The ridge out west nudging east would also help. 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

Dramatic ICON run. WoW

Most of us would take that in a heartbeat. That's a State College, Binghamton, Albany, Worcester jack. Doesn't matter this far out, but I felt more comfortable with it missing east last run.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Jim is awesome and this is a great thread to summarize the situation.

 

Jim is good, however, that is not a true -NAO block. That is a pop up thumb ridge, if it really even sets up that way

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We could really use some confluence to force an offshore track. A vigorous trough like that will want to cut somewhere. The ridge out west nudging east would also help. 

I want mature, wrapped up mid-level lows with a bombing surface low. I don't want to suppress that. I just want the trof to go neutral further east. The past few runs it's just setting up too far west. The vortmax doesn't need to swing west all the way out to CO. It might as well take a more direct route through IA, MS, AL and all the way down to northern FL. It can go to town from there. A severely negatively tilted cutoff in western VA is going to be a problem for us.

[jm1220]

The ridge axis out west is also not in a great place for an offshore track right now. We'd like for it to be over Idaho or Montana not the west coast. Hopefully something can nudge it east. 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Jim is good, however, that is not a true -NAO block. That is a pop up thumb ridge, if it really even sets up that way

 

[Rjay]

Confluence is notably further south this run

 

[brooklynwx99]

much more confluence as opposed to 18z thanks to more phasing of the ocean storm with the TPV early on… let’s see where this goes

[Rjay]

Confluence continues to be further south.

S/w not as amped up as the 18z run.

[USCG RS]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We could really use some confluence to force an offshore track. A vigorous trough like that will want to cut somewhere. The ridge out west nudging east would also help. 

Yup. This is exactly what I was saying and why I think the coast torches. Unfortunately. 

[Rjay]

Ends up an ugly run lol