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IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021


wdrag
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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where do you access these models?

Check this out from the 12z cycle yesterday, available by 1530z when less than 0.10" had occurred NYC while I was near 0.9" in extreme nw NJ. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=conus

Change the date and cycle. Change the area of interest down from CONUS to NORTHEAST.  Then go to precip and review 24 hour MEAN at the three 24 hour intervals provided.  Then click MAX and check for the same time. I do the same for snow.  Also, can look at hourly mean ptype/amount, ditto wind (found under FIRE).  It's a tool...imperfect but I and believe WPC think it's the best available, for now. 

EC has a lot of fans but is inadequate when it comes to convective release (secondary imo to the NCEP GFS). 

ANY questions: write me.  I could conduct a ZOOM on how to use all these tools in predictive sense, but all who participate must have pretty good internet. 

Screen Shot 2021-09-02 at 7.28.20 AM.png

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45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cranford, NJ is under water

People sitting on their roofs

Ch7 is live  there

Insane flooding there

20210902_090639.jpg

 

Yup.  I'm in Kenilworth right nearby and I lucked out, but all towns around me have spots where houses took on major water in basement (either creek, culvert, or just simply stormwater backup).  Can hear the choppers surveying impacts.

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For good chunk of NJ, Ida (even if remnants) will go up right with Sandy and Floyd in top 3 of impacts over last 30 years (Isaias and Irene not far behind).  Sadly, these events are coming closer together in time and with dramatic broader and intensity level impacts (wind or rain/flood, surge) respectively.

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1 minute ago, SleetStormNJ said:

For good chunk of NJ, Ida (even if remnants) will go up right with Sandy and Floyd in top 3 of impacts over last 30 years (Isaias and Irene not far behind).  Sadly, these events are coming closer together in time and with dramatic broader and intensity level impacts (wind or rain/flood, surge) respectively.

Busy year for the tri-state-Isaias last year, remnants of Elsa, Henri and now Ida this year which dumped incredible rains (all 3)

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Just now, SleetStormNJ said:

For good chunk of NJ, Ida (even if remnants) will go up right with Sandy and Floyd in top 3 of impacts over last 30 years (Isaias and Irene not far behind).  Sadly, these events are coming closer together in time and with dramatic broader and intensity level impacts (wind or rain/flood, surge) respectively.

Yeah the crazy thing is this was just the remnants of a storm barely energized by a trough and we still got Floyd like rains. 

It lasted maybe 6hrs. 

What will happen when a strong hurricane actually impacts us directly.

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11 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

8.58" here and counting...

Bound Brook and Manville must be wiped off the map...

I've never seen our town this bad

My official gauge was 8.81".  Crazy storm.   I've never seen the area this bad either.  Overall made out ok here.  4" of water in the basement, but that is gone now.  Have 6 industrial fans going now.  My pool looks like chocolate milk though since so much runoff ran into it.  Very grateful it wasn't worse.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah the crazy thing is this was just the remnants of a storm barely energized by a trough and we still got Floyd like rains. 

It lasted maybe 6hrs. 

What will happen when a strong hurricane actually impacts us directly.

I used to think if the real deal came up the coast, I could board the house up and get the hell out of dodge (like upstate NY or somewhere well inland) but with the way things have gone the last decade, I really don’t know where is safe anymore. I said it last night, but this region…anything can happen. Literally, anything. 

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58 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Check this out from the 12z cycle yesterday, available by 1530z when less than 0.10" had occurred NYC while I was near 0.9" in extreme nw NJ. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=conus

Change the date and cycle. Change the area of interest down from CONUS to NORTHEAST.  Then go to precip and review 24 hour MEAN at the three 24 hour intervals provided.  Then click MAX and check for the same time. I do the same for snow.  Also, can look at hourly mean ptype/amount, ditto wind (found under FIRE).  It's a tool...imperfect but I and believe WPC think it's the best available, for now. 

EC has a lot of fans but is inadequate when it comes to convective release (secondary imo to the NCEP GFS). 

ANY questions: write me.  I could conduct a ZOOM on how to use all these tools in predictive sense, but all who participate must have pretty good internet. 

Screen Shot 2021-09-02 at 7.28.20 AM.png

yes please re:zoom

 

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55 minutes ago, doncat said:

8.10" total here on west shore si... Hope all are ok. Most impressive rainfall in my 61 years.

saw some abandoned cars on Albee ave and Drumgool rd...the little creek that runs there flooded down the block from P>S> 36 on Jefferson Blvd...

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32 minutes ago, FPizz said:

My official gauge was 8.81".  Crazy storm.   I've never seen the area this bad either.  Overall made out ok here.  4" of water in the basement, but that is gone now.  Have 6 industrial fans going now.  My pool looks like chocolate milk though since so much runoff ran into it.  Very grateful it wasn't worse.

9.37" here on the other side of town...no water in the basement, luckily

my pool looks great besides a bunch of leaves in it...

helping out my neighbor with a flooded basement and a buddy down the street we ripped out his carpet this morning.

no cornhole tonight :(

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11 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.  

VO2vpw3.png

In case nobody updated this (haven't checked), FYI, forecast for flooding for the Raritan increased to just about the same record level seen for Floyd in 1999, at least at Bound Brook, peaking around 1-2 pm, then declining, as per the graphic. Let's hope Bound Brook, in particular, can handle this (although evacuations have been ordered - let's hope the mitigations they put in place keep it less severe than back then). Flooding on the Delaware at Lambertville will reach moderate flood stage (looks the same as last night's prediction) and will reach major stage on the Passaic at Little Falls, as per the graphics below (the link allows anyone to look at predicted flood levels for any river in the area). Most roads have improved and are reopening, but not River Rd or 18 and 1 in many locations, especially near streams/rivers. Horrible storm with so many tragic outcomes (8 dead in NY/NJ, so far and incredible damage all over). Nobody could've anticipated 8-12" of rain and so many tornadoes, even with predictions of 3-6" of rain and possible severe storms.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps/region.php?rfc=marfc

Also, my very good friend is a firefighter in Hillsborough (certainly my personal hero for today) and was doing water rescues all night, but they couldn't reach 2 who died, as per the report linked below. Helicopter rescues being made in some towns in NJ and more are missing. Just tragic.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2021/09/nj-weather-2-people-die-in-submerged-vehicles-in-hillsborough-during-ida-flooding.html

ACPQv6B.png

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53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah the crazy thing is this was just the remnants of a storm barely energized by a trough and we still got Floyd like rains. 

It lasted maybe 6hrs. 

What will happen when a strong hurricane actually impacts us directly.

I think the word "remnants" is extremely deceptive as the amount of rainfall that will fall has nothing to do with the intensity of the storm, it has to do with a variety of external factors.  Some of the most destructive and damaging storms were 40 mph TS or even TD.  Intensity <> Impact

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Check this out from the 12z cycle yesterday, available by 1530z when less than 0.10" had occurred NYC while I was near 0.9" in extreme nw NJ. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=conus

Change the date and cycle. Change the area of interest down from CONUS to NORTHEAST.  Then go to precip and review 24 hour MEAN at the three 24 hour intervals provided.  Then click MAX and check for the same time. I do the same for snow.  Also, can look at hourly mean ptype/amount, ditto wind (found under FIRE).  It's a tool...imperfect but I and believe WPC think it's the best available, for now. 

EC has a lot of fans but is inadequate when it comes to convective release (secondary imo to the NCEP GFS). 

ANY questions: write me.  I could conduct a ZOOM on how to use all these tools in predictive sense, but all who participate must have pretty good internet. 

Screen Shot 2021-09-02 at 7.28.20 AM.png

Great stuff Walt - this is why it's so great to have a pro like you (and many others) on the board.

Also, look at that graphic vs. the radar composite - fairly decent match...

rJavEpe.jpg

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