IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

we all got phone alerts saying it was a life threatening situation. there's also the issue of people who were likely forced to be at work 

my phone got so many alerts its battery went dead...

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

my phone got so many alerts its battery went dead...

One of the first times I remember the emergency alert on my TV that wasn't a test.  My cable box looked odd, so I turned the TV on, and the alert was on.

[GrindOutWins]

I watched this all unfold live on TV/Internet. How hard is what happened being studied by the highest levels of meteorology right now? How could an outlier event like this occur so quickly? 

There was an abundance of rain/wind by midnight EST but then...boom. This phenomena just exploded over the course of hundreds and hundreds of miles. I'm not sure which would be more damaging long term: An event such as what just occurred, or a snowfall event that continued to train rates like that over such a widespread area. 

I mean, come on: This event just told Sandy, and basically every other Northeast storm ever to hold it's beer. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, GrindOutWins said:

I watched this all unfold live on TV/Internet. How hard is what happened being studied by the highest levels of meteorology right now? How could an outlier event like this occur so quickly? 

Well it was forecasted well to be honest. 

[nycsnow]

 

[psv88]

Problem is hundreds of thousands of people live in basement apartments. How can you evacuate that many people for a potential flood event?

[nycsnow]

The precinct that covers the area in Staten Island that got 10 inches of rain was holding 313 911 calls all at once last night. Wild 

[GrindOutWins]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well it was forecasted well to be honest. 

I do agree, actually. Rainfall totals, rates, potential for tornadoes, etc - it was all there. But come on: This was basically a 10/10 fruition event. Or was it? People are starting to wonder if storms like this are going to rapidly become the norm. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Smart.  Its tempting to stay and get video but dangerous.

Could've left the camera set up on a tripod.  That's what I would've done.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it was forecasted well to be honest. 

They are talking about changing the terminology now, like "remnant"- it doesn't do an event like this justice.  We're slowly going to start moving away from the Saffir Simpson scale and more towards an impact based scale, which is something I've wanted for years  This would be a Class IV flood event. (Or something thereabouts.)  Class V would be if the entire area got 10"+

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, GrindOutWins said:

I do agree, actually. Rainfall totals, rates, potential for tornadoes, etc - it was all there. But come on: This was basically a 10/10 fruition event. Or was it? People are starting to wonder if storms like this are going to rapidly become the norm. 

The scientific community knows, actually everyone knows.  It's just a matter of getting companies worried about their own profits out of the way.  I say let's threaten their existence the way they threaten ours.  Pull no punches.....

 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, GrindOutWins said:

I do agree, actually. Rainfall totals, rates, potential for tornadoes, etc - it was all there. But come on: This was basically a 10/10 fruition event. Or was it? People are starting to wonder if storms like this are going to rapidly become the norm. 

If this occurred 40 miles NW, nobody would be talking like you are. It’s unfortunate it all came together over NY metro.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Seeing some of the aftermath now, i think the effects from PTC Ida is arguably worse than either Irene or Floyd for the nyc metro area…. Sandy probably not but I can’t believe how high the death toll is getting

Ida for our area one could argue was a Class IV Flood Event.  Sandy would be a Class III Wind Event and a Class V Surge Event.

We need to switch to impact based scales.....

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They are talking about changing the terminology now, like "remnant"- it doesn't do an event like this justice.  We're slowly going to start moving away from the Saffir Simpson scale and more towards an impact based scale, which is something I've wanted for years  This would be a Class IV flood event. (Or something thereabouts.)  Class V would be if the entire area got 10"+

 

Meh that wouldn’t have changed anything. It’s NYC. Lots of people live there. They have places to go. All you can do is warn about impact and communicate that as best as you can. You can’t tell people what to do. You just need to  communicate things as best as you can. They have to take that info and do what they please. This was probably 1/100ish year event? Maybe more? Every time there is a risk of FFW, you aren’t going to keep people off the roads or have 300,000 people leave their basement apt. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If this occurred 40 miles NW, nobody would be talking like you are. It’s unfortunate it all came together over NY metro.

14 inches of rain? I think they would

This set records.....

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meh that wouldn’t have changed anything. It’s NYC. Lots of people live there. They have places to go. All you can do is warn about impact and communicate that as best as you can. You can’t tell people what to do. You just need to  communicate things as best as you can. They have to take that info and do what they please. This was probably 1/100ish year event? Maybe more? Every time there is a risk of FFW, you aren’t going to keep people off the roads or have 300,000 people leave their basement apt. 

1/500 year I think.  I dont think that really matters since we seem to get at least 2 of these every year.  This was our second or third.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh that wouldn’t have changed anything. It’s NYC. Lots of people live there. They have places to go. All you can do is warn about impact and communicate that as best as you can. You can’t tell people what to do. You just need to  communicate things as best as you can. They have to take that info and do what they please. This was probably 1/100ish year event? Maybe more? Every time there is a risk of FFW, you aren’t going to keep people off the roads or have 300,000 people leave their basement apt. 

There's also people who probably dont even have access to communications devices, I suspect.  The most vulnerable.  I don't know how you reach them.

 

[Intensewind002]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Ida for our area one could argue was a Class IV Flood Event.  Sandy would be a Class III Wind Event and a Class V Surge Event.

We need to switch to impact based scales.....

 

What scale are you using?

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The precinct that covers the area in Staten Island that got 10 inches of rain was holding 313 911 calls all at once last night. Wild 

My friend works there. They were all flood jobs. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

What scale are you using?

None lol.  I'm saying we need to develop one like this, it would be similar to the Modified Mercalli scale for earthquakes (vs the Richter scale.)  The relative classes would signify how extreme (and rare) something is vs the worst that could happen (reasonably) and has to also take into account the physical size of the area impacted.

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

14 inches of rain? I think they would

This set records.....

 

Right but the coverage wouldn’t even be close. It happen end in the biggest city of the country. We’ve had these events happen before. But now it Occurred in NY. These tropical systems interacting with a trough would have flooded the colonists.  

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1/500 year I think.  I dont think that really matters since we seem to get at least 2 of these every year.  This was our second or third.

But both were tropical systems. Tropical systems are going to unload on someone.  Unfortunately both happened to be near NYC.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right but the coverage wouldn’t even be close. It happen end in the biggest city of the country. We’ve had these events happen before. But now it Occurred in NY. These tropical systems interacting with a trough would have flooded the colonists.  

I have a prime example of another event like that which was about 80 miles further east.....I don't know if you can obtain the precip maps to this one but if you can, look up the Islip deluge from August 2014.  Very comparable in terms of max rainfall but it was shifted 80 miles to the east.  Close to 14 inches of rain in 3 hours.  The standing state record.

There's also the August 2011 extreme rainfall event (pre Irene), that was centered 25 miles east of the city (in my area), 10 inches of rain in less than 6 hours.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

But both were tropical systems. Tropical systems are going to unload on someone.  Unfortunately both happened to be near NYC.

Yes, we've had three of these so far this season already.  All rain events.  Had 2 last year.  But one of those more of a wind event than a rain event (Isaias).  Depends on what side of the storm you're on.  Isaias last year had a very Sandy-like feel (in terms of wind, not surge of course) and was relatively dry here on the eastern side.  Did see reports of tornadoes on the Jersey shore.  Nothing like the two EF3 we have had this summer though.

 

[Intensewind002]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

None lol.  I'm saying we need to develop one like this, it would be similar to the Modified Mercalli scale for earthquakes (vs the Richter scale.)  The relative classes would signify how extreme (and rare) something is vs the worst that could happen and has to also take into account the physical size of the area impacted.

 

Yeah that’s actually a good idea, we can still keep the old scales and warnings. But adding a more coherent scale on ALL types of impacts would be a lot better than just wind.

[donsutherland1]

Some additional photos from the flooding and its aftermath:

Photos:

1-3: Harrison, NY; 4: Larchmont, NY; 5-6: Scarsdale, NY

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right but the coverage wouldn’t even be close. It happen end in the biggest city of the country. We’ve had these events happen before. But now it Occurred in NY. These tropical systems interacting with a trough would have flooded the colonists.  

The question is are they happening more frequently now? Well, to answer that in a different way, our average precip seems to be going way up if you compare 30 year precip norms now vs let's say a few decades ago.  I hate it.  There is nothing I dislike more than sticky, muggy tropical humid weather lol.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Yeah that’s actually a good idea, we can still keep the old scales and warnings. But adding a more coherent scale on ALL types of impacts would be a lot better than just wind.

Yes it makes it much more efficient to communicate to the public with.  Keep both and use them both differently.  Nothing wrong with describing a historic event like this in a multitude of ways.

[uncle W]

as bad as the storms were this Summer the record for the biggest rain fall still stands...

11.83" 09/21-23/1882

11.80" 10/08-10/1903

..9.19" 11/07-08/1977

..8.45" 04/15-16/2007

..8.19" 08/21-23/2021

..7.76" 09/13-14/1944

..7.19" 09/01-02/2021

..7.01" 10/12-13/2005

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The question is are they happening more frequently now? Well, to answer that in a different way, our average precip seems to be going way up if you compare 30 year precip norms now vs let's say a few decades ago.  I hate it.  There is nothing I dislike more than sticky, muggy tropical humid weather lol.

We are getting warmer. And that means more moisture. But could it also be an unlucky stretch too? The 50s had some rough floods as well. It’s tough to point fingers and Blame it on CC.