IDA remnants OBS-nowcasts (storm total rain and/or unusual flooding, wind damage-power outage, gusts ~45+ MPH) Wed-Thu morning Sept 1-2, 2021

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

These tropical systems always seem to deliver.

Model review:

UKMET was the most consistent.  RGEM/CMC did well at the end but were too far south until about 48 hrs out. HRRR did well-pinpointed the high totals along and north of I-95   Interesting to see the models correct south at the last second yesterday, that's been rare-usually the north trend continues right up to go time. 

Hope folks are checking the SPC HREF, which WPC follows closely for its D1-2.  VERY VERY good. 

[WE GOT HIM]

6 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

buy/rent a dehumidifier and hit the moisture hard.  drop desiccant everywhere you feel like, it’s a hell of a lot easier to remove than mold and a hundredth as dangerous and costly as mold is.  be liberal with bleach on spots if you think you have mold growth.  if you have the means get a professional early before it starts manifesting because it’s like bedbugs, an ounce of prevention is a pound of cure.

area mold professionals will be busy and charging accordingly.  if you put some work in over the next few days you will save yourself a lot of time money and stress.

Thanks man, really soild advice.

I already put the dehumidifiers into hose mode and have fans going.

Low dew point will help today too

[MJO812]

Another pic of Cranford , NJ

[kat5hurricane]

9 hours ago, Rjay said:

Cross Island Parkway.  My father-in-law sent this.

 

 

Holy. That's literally walking distance from my place. That portion of the Cross Island floods a lot (the Bell Blvd. exit in particular) but never anything like that.  Those cars going under is absolutely frightening, I hope those people made it out ok.

[MJO812]

Mother and son were killed in their basement in Queens after the flooding broke the wall outside and water drowned them inside.

[snywx]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Alternate  side parking suspended 

Yeah all the cars are parked on the highways 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Anyone have a link or site to see how much rain actually fell in each area ? Thanks in advance

 

[psv88]

In PA and supposed to be driving back to LI today…I think I’m going to push it back a day…

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hope folks are checking the SPC HREF, which WPC follows closely for its D1-2.  VERY VERY good. 

where do you access these models?

[Winter Wizard]

Worst natural disaster in the Northeast since Sandy 

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, user13 said:

Thanks man, really soild advice.

I already put the dehumidifiers into hose mode and have fans going.

Low dew point will help today too

yep open all available doors/windows, the sun and low humidity will help.  Good luck.

[SnoSki14]

Wow just noticed several rivers will approach Floyd levels of flooding or set new records.

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Not sure how this doesn't match or exceed Sandy. It looks like all the coastal areas that flooded in Sandy flooded here too, as well as the widespread inland areas that flooded last night that were pretty much unscathed in Sandy. Flooding rains aren't as exciting to the media as a landfalling hurricane-equivalent superstorm, but I have a feeling when the insurance claims are all in, this will be comparable or exceed the Sandy costs. 

Apples and Oranges. Sandy was a long duration devastating high wind and surge event while this was a shorter duration devastating freshwater flooding event. It's essentially a pick your poison situation but hard to compare the two because the events were very different in terms of the type of impact. I think this was scarier because it happened so suddenly making it hard to prepare especially for people on the road (and why they were driving in this is beyond me).

[Brian5671]

Larry next however just looks like a wave/high surf producer here

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where do you access these models?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Larry next however just looks like a wave/high surf producer here

Keeps shifting west but this will most likely be a fish .

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where do you access these models?

Check this out from the 12z cycle yesterday, available by 1530z when less than 0.10" had occurred NYC while I was near 0.9" in extreme nw NJ. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=conus

Change the date and cycle. Change the area of interest down from CONUS to NORTHEAST.  Then go to precip and review 24 hour MEAN at the three 24 hour intervals provided.  Then click MAX and check for the same time. I do the same for snow.  Also, can look at hourly mean ptype/amount, ditto wind (found under FIRE).  It's a tool...imperfect but I and believe WPC think it's the best available, for now. 

EC has a lot of fans but is inadequate when it comes to convective release (secondary imo to the NCEP GFS). 

ANY questions: write me.  I could conduct a ZOOM on how to use all these tools in predictive sense, but all who participate must have pretty good internet. 

[WE GOT HIM]

[wdrag]

Have placed my final review in the original IDA thread and answered a question on how to access some pretty good predictive data that I think WPC relies upon, maybe more so than specific ensembles for the first 48 hours. 

[Yanksfan]

6 fatalities now reported in NJ. Sad situation.

[doncat]

8.10" total here on west shore si... Hope all are ok. Most impressive rainfall in my 61 years.

[SleetStormNJ]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cranford, NJ is under water

People sitting on their roofs

Ch7 is live  there

Insane flooding there

 

Yup.  I'm in Kenilworth right nearby and I lucked out, but all towns around me have spots where houses took on major water in basement (either creek, culvert, or just simply stormwater backup).  Can hear the choppers surveying impacts.

[SleetStormNJ]

For good chunk of NJ, Ida (even if remnants) will go up right with Sandy and Floyd in top 3 of impacts over last 30 years (Isaias and Irene not far behind).  Sadly, these events are coming closer together in time and with dramatic broader and intensity level impacts (wind or rain/flood, surge) respectively.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, SleetStormNJ said:

For good chunk of NJ, Ida (even if remnants) will go up right with Sandy and Floyd in top 3 of impacts over last 30 years (Isaias and Irene not far behind).  Sadly, these events are coming closer together in time and with dramatic broader and intensity level impacts (wind or rain/flood, surge) respectively.

Busy year for the tri-state-Isaias last year, remnants of Elsa, Henri and now Ida this year which dumped incredible rains (all 3)

[SnoSki14]

Just now, SleetStormNJ said:

For good chunk of NJ, Ida (even if remnants) will go up right with Sandy and Floyd in top 3 of impacts over last 30 years (Isaias and Irene not far behind).  Sadly, these events are coming closer together in time and with dramatic broader and intensity level impacts (wind or rain/flood, surge) respectively.

Yeah the crazy thing is this was just the remnants of a storm barely energized by a trough and we still got Floyd like rains. 

It lasted maybe 6hrs. 

What will happen when a strong hurricane actually impacts us directly.

[FPizz]

11 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

8.58" here and counting...

Bound Brook and Manville must be wiped off the map...

I've never seen our town this bad

My official gauge was 8.81".  Crazy storm.   I've never seen the area this bad either.  Overall made out ok here.  4" of water in the basement, but that is gone now.  Have 6 industrial fans going now.  My pool looks like chocolate milk though since so much runoff ran into it.  Very grateful it wasn't worse.

[guinness77]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah the crazy thing is this was just the remnants of a storm barely energized by a trough and we still got Floyd like rains. 

It lasted maybe 6hrs. 

What will happen when a strong hurricane actually impacts us directly.

I used to think if the real deal came up the coast, I could board the house up and get the hell out of dodge (like upstate NY or somewhere well inland) but with the way things have gone the last decade, I really don’t know where is safe anymore. I said it last night, but this region…anything can happen. Literally, anything. 

[weathermedic]

Finished with 4.56 inches total at my station.

[uofmiami]

4.66" in Syosset and 4.48" in Muttontown for the storm.

[HailMan06]