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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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Our good winter for snow in the NC High country continues.   Has been a generally good run for 48 days since 11/29 above 4500’

 

 

144A5EDF-1925-42C6-9007-4EAD6B8BD053.png

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8 hours ago, griteater said:

Yeah we’re not far off in the mid and extended range. One thing to watch for is to see if the pattern can become more suppressed than currently shown - sometimes that happens on the modeling in the bigger -NAO’s like this 

Not a huge fan of the tendency for lower heights out west.  But with a tPV up in central/eastern Canada and a big -NAO you can get NW to SE moving systems kind of like what's shown on the 6z GFS, out in time anyway.  I think pretty soon, we'll start to see some legit big dogs show up.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Not a huge fan of the tendency for lower heights out west.  But with a tPV up in central/eastern Canada and a big -NAO you can get NW to SE moving systems kind of like what's shown on the 6z GFS, out in time anyway.  I think pretty soon, we'll start to see some legit big dogs show up.

Hey, been waiting for you to show up.  Turn those Shields off!!!

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So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

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Honestly was surprised this morning, a quick trace in Mt. Pleasant that was sticking to the roads for about 15-20 minutes.  

D70474C3-0D95-4F6F-A2FA-77A6DD0B181C.jpeg

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

That's one way to look at it...  but really it is only "half" of prime climo time.  The average snowfall for RDU for February/March is only slightly lower than the average snowfall for December/January...  

I'll start getting worried if we haven't seen anything (observation, not models), by Valentine's.  

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

I would not be so quick to write off the end of January. There’s a lot of things to like in the overall pattern the last week or so of the month

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34 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Surprise this morning in Dry Fork 2213d8c722f54d0dcf1a5b5530d92ce4.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

I was at the farm in Stuart this morning and getting the very light flurries but noticed the radar really filled in nicely with the heavier returns just east towards Martinsville.  Glad you got a surprise!

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6 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Not a huge fan of the tendency for lower heights out west.  But with a tPV up in central/eastern Canada and a big -NAO you can get NW to SE moving systems kind of like what's shown on the 6z GFS, out in time anyway.  I think pretty soon, we'll start to see some legit big dogs show up.

This was a nice call. GFS immediately delivered a big dog fantasy run within just a few hours lol.

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35 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Snowing north of 40 on the euro at day 6.5

That's the one I'm not going to sleep yet on.  Possibilities out there for supportive temps are not totally out of the picture.  At least not yet anyway.

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Pretty good support for a classic wedge event around day 9.  Block over Greenland with split Lows under it creates a nice stationary high on the modeling. Just need a system to eject before it breaks down. 

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7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Pretty good support for a classic wedge event around day 9.  Block over Greenland with split Lows under it creates a nice stationary high on the modeling. Just need a system to eject before it breaks down. 

Yeah that was lights out for someone if it was right 

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10 hours ago, eyewall said:

So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

I’ll be honest, been back in Raleigh this winter, and it has accidentally snowed more than I can ever remember.

Just today we had an intense snow squall that coated the ground.

And it has rarely been mild or warm this winter. While we may have missed on the blockbuster snow so far, it has certainly felt like winter.

Having grown up in the South, that is something to talk about.

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1 hour ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

What part of Raleigh?  I normally score just north of Leesville and didn’t get anything today.

Creedmoor/540

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1 hour ago, Avdave said:

Im off 540 and 40 and had not one flake here

Have had nothing so far by Jordan Lake. Not even a flurry.

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13 hours ago, Snowacane said:

Have had nothing so far by Jordan Lake. Not even a flurry.

We had a good 10 minutes of snow in Rolesville.

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6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Nice snow on Day 9 of the Euro. 

Looks like snow breaks out for most of NC then turns back to raging ice storm on last frame if I’m looking correctly 

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I haven't seen a true CAD wedge snow to ice storm in years like modeled on the day 9/10 Euro. Would be nice.

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