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msuwx

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Everything posted by msuwx

  1. msuwx
    Writing off 21 days with tons of arctic air in the pattern is an interesting position.
  2. msuwx
    Clearly seems to be beginning an ERC which will probably help the wind-aspect of this system for coastal Florida. Also, if that is the case, could cause weakening once inland a little more quickly than expected.
  3. msuwx
  4. msuwx
    Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas.
  5. msuwx
    Stronger system, much more pronounced warm nose ahead of it at 60-63 hours. ULL is much deeper at that point over MS/AL compared to 6z.
  6. msuwx
    This (12z) NAM run looks like it will turn out fun.
  7. msuwx
    Folks complaining about the overnight runs must not have been paying attention this winter. At least it's something.
  8. msuwx
    Not exactly correct.
  9. msuwx
    The Euro took a big step west with the diving energy in the Plains compared to its 0z run. Significant adjustment IMO. 0z: 12z:
  10. msuwx
    6z GFS is definitely still a hit of snow for a lot of the region. But yes, it is a later, further east phase/ digging.... not what most would want. 6z compared to 0z:
  11. msuwx
    I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late.
  12. msuwx
    I have not dug deeply into the longer range this morning, but when I did yesterday, I saw nothing at all that signaled an end to winter anytime soon.
  13. msuwx
    That was it! And yes they did.... that areas has had it rough!
  14. msuwx
    I still have painful memories of an event a few years ago. Looked good for a big Charlotte snow.... went to dinner and huge flakes were flying. Felt good about my forecast. Walked out of dinner to head to the hotel..... and sleet was falling. Knew it was over then. That's the event that I vowed to never take the NAM's warm nose projections lightly.
  15. msuwx
    Prior to this winter, I don't think there has been a more prolific screwzone in the region than the Charlotte metro....especially western and southern Charlotte metro. It's nice to finally see that reversed a bit.
  16. msuwx
    Say what you will, having 3 winter weather events, to some degree, in 20 days is very impressive to me. Some spots in western NC had snow on snow on snow, which is pretty dang rare (I've never experienced it personally before), outside of the higher mountain spots.
  17. msuwx
    You should try on for size the volume of high school basketball games we’ve had to cancel this month.
  18. msuwx
    I think there’s just more uncertainty than normal that that snow band will set up and exactly where it will. Probably better to play it very conservative and ramp-up than the other way around. could be one of those things where a lot of the accumulations that do occur or mainly on the grassy and elevated surfaces with it taking a while for the surface temperatures to cool. Then again, if this band performs well with rates as some previous setups have done, that won’t matter much.
  19. msuwx
    This one is quite vexing because of the lack of support for the UL-induced band with the RGEM and NAM. I still feel fairly confident it happens….but what a low confidence forecast.
  20. msuwx
    That's some random other little low that developed by hour 57. Not the main low. The main upper forcing is just arriving.
  21. msuwx
    Yeah a lot of the modeling is consolidating around the idea of that nice band of snow/ snow showers working through western and central NC. Entirely dependent on upper levels though, so time will tell.
  22. msuwx
  23. msuwx
    Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January?
  24. msuwx
    Looking at 500mb vort….the Canadian was really, really close to a biggie.
  25. msuwx
    Haha. It’s not a thing. Nobody tells us what to say or not say. Our management trusts us to lead the coverage as we deem it appropriate.
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