msuwx

Not trying to single you out, but the hyperbole-laden, emotional posts like this make the board unbearable at times. Warm days? Where?

While it isn't as aggressive as some other models, the 6z GFS actually beefed up the snow totals in much of NC compared to its 0z run. See the comparison below:

??

I think we’ve lost about 37 straight....

Yeah the wet bulb will probably remain above freezing in CLT throughout the precip time-frame. Going to take some great rates to overcome the 'warm-ish' boundary layer enough to accumulate. I'm not crazy about the overall look from CLT-GSP, but we will see. Radar looks good though.

Still looks like a significant NC hit is on the way at 45 hours. We will see.

Similar to 6z. Couple of tenths less.

12z GEFS snowfall mean vs. 6z:

I don't either. Personally, give me a moisture-packed system over one where people are hoping the light precip is heavy enough.

3km snapshot vs 12km NAM snapshot at the heart of the event. Very similar, and I would not pay a ton of attention to the PType algorithms near the transition line.

Exactly. This narrative that the 6z Euro was drier than the 0z is false. Watching the 12z NAM now, but through prior runs, this is not correct. The Euro has shifted toward the NAM, not the other way around.

Thanks. How much did you pick up?

Before that argument begins, can one of you north Georgia or Upstate SC folks pull up and post soil temps prior to our Saturday event a week or so ago?

Not out yet.

On the 12z Canadian, there's much less upper level (500mb) dynamics involved because of the handling of the vort moving out of the Rockies into the Plains Thursday morning. 0z GEM kept it rolling southeast and there was a degree of phasing of the system, leading to the NW side of our coastal low blossoming with precip. 12z GEM takes the Rockies vort to the ENE (rather odd-looking) and you get little to no interaction with it and our coastal system.

I really like the odds of a nice, west-east oriented area of overrunning snow with this system. The setup is ripe for that, assuming we get decent precip rates. The air aloft is plenty cold for snow, and only gets colder as the event unfolds. The question is will the band with the right balance of cold air/ precipitation overlap to generate snow be in northern SC, southeastern NC, further north, or will precip remain too light to really generate any accumulating snow in most places. Too soon to know.

That’s the old Euro bias.

Pet peeve alert.... This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range. But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming.

The 'it doesn't get cold anymore' narrative gets tiresome.

12z EPS for KCLT

That’s 4.5 days after the map you posted. So yes, that’s pretty quick rebuilding of the cold. But we will see....

Last frame of the 0z EPS

Even taking the 0z EPS at face value, that is nothing that resembles ‘warm.’

That is not even remotely correct.

Yep..... Looking Glass Falls in January 2018.