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  1. So UKMET comes in south and blasting right across Florida into Gulf. Euro now stalling and scraping the Florida coast. Awesome. Crystal clear.
  2. Looks like its going to wind up coming into Florida at roughly the same location as its 12z run though.
  3. FYI, today’s system isn’t slower than expected. The heaviest precip was always tonight for the Carolinas. The reason some people missed out on the earlier (and icy) precip this morning is actually because the initial airmass was drier than modeled. Dewpoints were way below model projections yesterday afternoon, and that dry air was a lot for the initial round of isentropic lift-generated precip to overcome.
  4. 6z GFS spins the UL energy off into it's own semi-cutoff entity in the Gulf as it then loses connection with the northern branch.... then magically disappears into oblivion as it crosses Florida. GEM was much less consolidated with the UL energy......way more strung out. This *should* be a system more in the Euro's (and eventually UKMET's) wheelhouse. However, there is little chance of a piece of energy like this being modeled totally correctly from this range, obviously.
  5. Not really, it's a clipper really. But even posting individual panels 10 days out for a single operational run seems silly.
  6. Is the Pattern change still trending in the right direction for SE cold and snow?

    I known models are still having a time. 

    Thanks for reading 

  7. This was always going to be a back-half winter. The fact that many cashed in for the early December storm was the true “rabbit out of the hat” scenario. I’ve maintained that we would begin the step down to a cooler pattern this past week with a largely cold pattern taking over, more often than not, and for a quite a while, once our Sunday system passes this weekend. The window, to me, for the favorable weather pattern for Southeast and East winter storms only really begins after this weekend’s system. And it always has. So no punting to me. There have been quite a few folks commit false starts, but we are about to receive the second half kickoff, and we’ve held our best plays for the second half. Time to play ball.
  8. The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that.... The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting.
  9. Relax. No guarantees, but the coming pattern (late January-February) looks about as good as it can look at this range. I feel the system next weekend is what opens the door for the pattern.
  10. Well......EPS mean and control both have massive cold a shots around that time, as well as the Canadian ensembles (pictured). Not to the insane extent of the FV3 necessarily, but the signal is clear for cold.
  11. Definitely possible in today's climate, but obviously, this would be quite an extreme outbreak, and therefore, quite unlikely. But boy...the lows on the mornings of the 27th and 28th are stupid cold.
  12. I get the feeling once this colder eastern NA pattern arrives, it is going to want to really crank and stay for a while.