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About msuwx

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  1. I could make an argument that's a snow sounding.
  2. The 925mb temperatures seem to be behaving very similarly to what the European model projected. Actual vs. model:
  3. 6z GFS ensembles could very well have been the warning shot.
  4. I think conservative is the way to go for the time being, and that's the way I continue to go in my public forecast. Way too many variables and too much uncertainty to be too whipped up into a frenzy at this juncture.
  5. Several ensemble members now have a stronger system, similar to what a few of the others models have.
  6. GEFS went way up on snow totals in the NW half of NC on the 6z run, compared to 0z.
  7. Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad.
  8. I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. I'm just excited we have something already.
  9. The outer eyewall was really contracting on the last frames we had from TJUA radar. The ERC completed, and then the outer eyewall rapidly contracted.
  10. Seriously doubt it. Yes, quite possible assuming it completes the ERC, as it appears it is.
  11. Barring negative interaction in some way with Cuba, I think Irma has a very good chance at strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. It's a big hurricane, so there's a limit to some extent, but I think the pressure could drop a decent amount.
  12. It is amazing the different from north to south in Charlotte. Lots of happy people to the north and west, unhappy folks from Center City and points south and east.
  13. Not a whole lot to add. I've got to hit the bed to be on the air dark and early. Interstate 85 Corridor just has to continue to be patient. Changeover should occur and still expect generous amounts. Raleigh area has been and remains extremely tricky to see how this will play out
  14. Always a concern. Hopefully the positive tilt orientation to this thing will fight that impact off. I will also say that I am issuing a 'radar hallucination freak-out watch' for this system. With the orientation of this thing and the way precip should blossom this evening, there will be screams of this missing people to the south by late today.