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  1. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    12z NAM in BUFKIT is much less pronounced with the warm nose for KHKY that it was on the 6z run.... FWIW.
  2. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    If the warmer temps aloft are correct, I think CLT stays sub-freezing at the SFC longer than RDU, at least a by a bit. However, I am not totally sold on the warmer aloft solution. Couple of normally-reliable tools aren't in that camp.
  3. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Well, been pouring through all available data for hours now, and it all depends on the temperatures 5-9k feet aloft for much of the region tonight into Sunday morning. NAM really warms temps in those layers later tonight....some other models do not. The NAM often does well in this situation, but I'm more hesitant than normal this time. Makes a massive difference in ground accumulations, especially around CLT-RDU corridor.
  4. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    FYI.....for those concerned about what wording the RAH NWS uses publicly, you can expect them to really beef up their wording this afternoon.
  5. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Read this RE: NAM..... Just poured through the hour-by-hour profiles for KCLT in BUFKIT from the 6z NAM.... 12z wasn't in yet. Really fascinating. Even out to 3-4z Sunday, the dewpoint is ABOVE freezing from essentially the SFC up to around 5k feet. Then, extremely quickly and dramatically, EXTREME drying kicks in at 2k-4k feet over the next few hours... I mean extreme. Dewpoints drop 10s of degrees C at those layers as strong NE winds kick in at those levels. That is when the dynamic cooling really starts to kick in.... which is after the end of the 3k NAM's range that someone posted a moment ago. Interesting. Compared to the 6z GFS, the NAM atmospheric profile is warmer by a decent margin than the GFS at precip onset. BUT, this isn't due to a warm nose....it's the initial airmass. At this point, for that aspect of the system, I would still give a slight lean to the globals.
  6. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT.
  7. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.
  8. msuwx

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    EPS as well as the control increase once again..... the control run was crazy.
  9. msuwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    No meteorological way for a 919mb hurricane to be a Cat 2.
  10. msuwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Wind verifications are always exceedingly difficult.
  11. Best it's looked in 24 hour or so.
  12. msuwx

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    The occurrence of sleet, such as around Charlotte, was expected and doesn’t really mean anything one way or another as far as the eventual outcome tonight. The sleet pellets are largely due to evaporation aloft.
  13. msuwx

    March 12th-13th ULL Discussion

    Yep.... it's tied to precip intensity. US 52 and I 40 were/ are very slushy when heavier snow occurs. March sun does its think when rates diminish.
  14. msuwx

    1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    The western metro is driving me crazy. Gastonia only around 0.5" to at most 1".
  15. msuwx

    January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

    The combination of the dynamics kicking into high gear slightly too late as well as this bone dry air is why you are seeing the models struggle to generate as much precipitation in the Triangle region. Look at that 900-ish layer as the precip approaches on the latest HRRR. Is it correct? Time will tell.