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About msuwx

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  1. Many NC locations, including the big cities, just finished about a 14 day stretch yesterday where every single high temperature was below average. Many days quite a bit below average. So while we missed out in the brutal arctic stuff, it has been far from warm.
  2. Once the sun sets, the Earth emits outgoing longwave radiation. A layer of clouds blocks that outgoing longwave radiation, trapping the heat in. As the radiation continues, temperatures can actually warm a decent amount.
  3. I’ve made no changes to my map from early this morning. Charlotte metro will struggle to get to and/ or stay below freezing.
  4. I am leaving things status quo for now....but the warmer solutions are especially evident around the CLT metro.
  5. The wet bulb map will be pretty useless until we see how much quick cooling we see early this evening before clouds thicken up.
  6. As I mentioned earlier, the southward trend has definitely stabilized and even reversed in some instances. No changes to my earlier map. But gut says its going to be difficult to get the Hwy74 corridor below freezing for any real long length of time. We will see. **Edited to clarify Hwy 74 corridor Gastonia-CLT-Monroe**
  7. I posted this a couple hours ago... ”This is my map, prior to the mid-morning model guidance arriving. I reserve the right to adjust if necessary later today. As usual, the area of highest uncertainty is at the fringes of the sub-freezing air, which unfortunately includes the CLT and RDU metros. Those in the red-shaded area especially, be prepared for the potential of power outages. Once you start getting ice accumulations above 0.25", the power grid begins to experience failures.“
  8. Most of the 6z suite came in slightly warmer for Charlotte proper and the immediate metro. Or at least the colder/ southward trend seemed to stop. We shall see.
  9. GSP will hoist some watches shortly. Now is the time with their afternoon forecast package.
  10. It’s had its ups and downs. Did fairly well with convection. It was way too cold with the event a couple weekends ago. It was pretty good with the last weekend. Did well with the rate of clearing today.
  11. Yeah it could be the GRAF. I’m not at a computer right now to check.
  12. The big reason the 12z Euro is 'warmer' than the 0z for Tuesday is that the 500mb energy goes negative tilt over the central Gulf Coast, and the surface low matures and is much stronger, much sooner on the 12z compared to the 0z. The overall signal has not changed, and there are going to be tons of changes as the models resolve: - the depth of the cold, arctic air - the strength, orientation of individual short waves - the strength, placement of the CAD-inducing high - many other moving pieces. I strongly suggest folks to check their emotions with the wild swings that are sure to come.