msuwx

FWIW, the RGEM is locked in to the idea of really hammering the I-40 corridor from AVL-HKY-SVH-GSO with significant ZR for multiple runs now, including the 12z coming in now.

I would not be so quick to write off the end of January. There’s a lot of things to like in the overall pattern the last week or so of the month

I believe you are correct.

I wouldn't say there's one specific threat to be excited about, but I see tons of signs that we at least have chances coming over the next few weeks. This time of the season, if you can maintain near or slightly below average temps, magic can happen. Doesn't have to be 10 days of 20 below average deviations. The NAO and AO are looking to be favorable, and the EPO and WPO are finally getting more favorable. The one thing I don't like is losing the +PNA, but it is what it is.

Not trying to single you out, but the hyperbole-laden, emotional posts like this make the board unbearable at times. Warm days? Where?

While it isn't as aggressive as some other models, the 6z GFS actually beefed up the snow totals in much of NC compared to its 0z run. See the comparison below:

??

I think we’ve lost about 37 straight....

Yeah the wet bulb will probably remain above freezing in CLT throughout the precip time-frame. Going to take some great rates to overcome the 'warm-ish' boundary layer enough to accumulate. I'm not crazy about the overall look from CLT-GSP, but we will see. Radar looks good though.

12z NAM in BUFKIT is much less pronounced with the warm nose for KHKY that it was on the 6z run.... FWIW.

If the warmer temps aloft are correct, I think CLT stays sub-freezing at the SFC longer than RDU, at least a by a bit. However, I am not totally sold on the warmer aloft solution. Couple of normally-reliable tools aren't in that camp.

Well, been pouring through all available data for hours now, and it all depends on the temperatures 5-9k feet aloft for much of the region tonight into Sunday morning. NAM really warms temps in those layers later tonight....some other models do not. The NAM often does well in this situation, but I'm more hesitant than normal this time. Makes a massive difference in ground accumulations, especially around CLT-RDU corridor.

FYI.....for those concerned about what wording the RAH NWS uses publicly, you can expect them to really beef up their wording this afternoon.

Read this RE: NAM..... Just poured through the hour-by-hour profiles for KCLT in BUFKIT from the 6z NAM.... 12z wasn't in yet. Really fascinating. Even out to 3-4z Sunday, the dewpoint is ABOVE freezing from essentially the SFC up to around 5k feet. Then, extremely quickly and dramatically, EXTREME drying kicks in at 2k-4k feet over the next few hours... I mean extreme. Dewpoints drop 10s of degrees C at those layers as strong NE winds kick in at those levels. That is when the dynamic cooling really starts to kick in.... which is after the end of the 3k NAM's range that someone posted a moment ago. Interesting. Compared to the 6z GFS, the NAM atmospheric profile is warmer by a decent margin than the GFS at precip onset. BUT, this isn't due to a warm nose....it's the initial airmass. At this point, for that aspect of the system, I would still give a slight lean to the globals.

6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT.

Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.

EPS as well as the control increase once again..... the control run was crazy.

The 925mb temperatures seem to be behaving very similarly to what the European model projected. Actual vs. model:

6z GFS ensembles could very well have been the warning shot.

I think conservative is the way to go for the time being, and that's the way I continue to go in my public forecast. Way too many variables and too much uncertainty to be too whipped up into a frenzy at this juncture.

Several ensemble members now have a stronger system, similar to what a few of the others models have.

GEFS went way up on snow totals in the NW half of NC on the 6z run, compared to 0z.

Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad.

I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. I'm just excited we have something already.

It took a step at 6z for sure.