msuwx

EPS is very noisy.... tons of variance in the placement/ strength/ timing of the 500mb feature. 500mb spaghetti looks like..... well, spaghetti.... across the Southeast 12/22-23.

Well, 12z Euro is different all right.

Different as in different from its previous runs.

Canadian was interesting. Looking at 500mb vort on the 6z Euro, if 12z pans out that way the 6z was at the end of the run, it will look a little different in the Carolinas on the 12z. We will see.

Don't agree with that assessment of GFS vs. UKMET/ ECMWF. The GFS continues to be much more robust with the 500mb feature than the Euro. There's just much more vorticity/ energy in the GFS version of the feature than on other models. The GFS ends up closing that off and tracking it in a slightly different fashion each run, but the theme of the disturbance being much more potent on the GFS continues.

Canadian remains quite icy with 12z run.

Canadian often does pretty well with CAD, especially its regional model. Here's the deal though....all models, operational and ensemble, essentially show there will be an arctic high moving from the Great Lakes through the Northeast US and then out into the Atlantic late in the work week. Thursday through Friday afternoon appears to be the time when the high will be in very favorable cold air damming position. The trend later yesterday and overnight was for most of the models to hold the most significant precipitation off until just after that prime CAD time range, when the high is slipping out into the Atlantic. It would only take a subtle change in timing for there to be significant ice concerns in the normally-favored cold air damming regions. The Canadian solution is not terribly unlike its previous runs...just a little more defined and slightly quicker with its 500mb feature, thus resulting in precip exploding while the high is still in prime CAD position. Bottom line, most likely the timing won't work out for significant ice problems, but it certainly remains within the realm of possibility.

GEM hops on the icy train with its 12z run.

Features are all still there on the 18z GFS. Vort moves in slightly faster....barely. But the players remain on the field.

Yes. Lots of sleet.

That's an ensemble mean with lots of spread in the members... operational is quite chilly. This is valid 18z..... heart of the event when already well north of 1" of liquid has fallen in Charlotte. 2m temps: 950mb temps:

Interestingly, the 6z GFS jumps on the initial wave that passed harmlessly to the south on the previous run. Lots of energy flying around.... just goes to show we have a long, long way to go before we have any real confidence in what will occur.

12z GFS essentially says enjoy your FROPA.

FYI, today’s system isn’t slower than expected. The heaviest precip was always tonight for the Carolinas. The reason some people missed out on the earlier (and icy) precip this morning is actually because the initial airmass was drier than modeled. Dewpoints were way below model projections yesterday afternoon, and that dry air was a lot for the initial round of isentropic lift-generated precip to overcome.

Don't think the Euro is gonna cut it

6z GFS spins the UL energy off into it's own semi-cutoff entity in the Gulf as it then loses connection with the northern branch.... then magically disappears into oblivion as it crosses Florida. GEM was much less consolidated with the UL energy......way more strung out. This *should* be a system more in the Euro's (and eventually UKMET's) wheelhouse. However, there is little chance of a piece of energy like this being modeled totally correctly from this range, obviously.

So does the RGEM

Not really, it's a clipper really. But even posting individual panels 10 days out for a single operational run seems silly.

This was always going to be a back-half winter. The fact that many cashed in for the early December storm was the true “rabbit out of the hat” scenario. I’ve maintained that we would begin the step down to a cooler pattern this past week with a largely cold pattern taking over, more often than not, and for a quite a while, once our Sunday system passes this weekend. The window, to me, for the favorable weather pattern for Southeast and East winter storms only really begins after this weekend’s system. And it always has. So no punting to me. There have been quite a few folks commit false starts, but we are about to receive the second half kickoff, and we’ve held our best plays for the second half. Time to play ball.

The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that.... The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting.

Relax. No guarantees, but the coming pattern (late January-February) looks about as good as it can look at this range. I feel the system next weekend is what opens the door for the pattern.

Well......EPS mean and control both have massive cold a shots around that time, as well as the Canadian ensembles (pictured). Not to the insane extent of the FV3 necessarily, but the signal is clear for cold.

Definitely possible in today's climate, but obviously, this would be quite an extreme outbreak, and therefore, quite unlikely. But boy...the lows on the mornings of the 27th and 28th are stupid cold.

I get the feeling once this colder eastern NA pattern arrives, it is going to want to really crank and stay for a while.

UKMet valid 0z Sunday.