msuwx

12z NAM in BUFKIT is much less pronounced with the warm nose for KHKY that it was on the 6z run.... FWIW.

If the warmer temps aloft are correct, I think CLT stays sub-freezing at the SFC longer than RDU, at least a by a bit. However, I am not totally sold on the warmer aloft solution. Couple of normally-reliable tools aren't in that camp.

Well, been pouring through all available data for hours now, and it all depends on the temperatures 5-9k feet aloft for much of the region tonight into Sunday morning. NAM really warms temps in those layers later tonight....some other models do not. The NAM often does well in this situation, but I'm more hesitant than normal this time. Makes a massive difference in ground accumulations, especially around CLT-RDU corridor.

FYI.....for those concerned about what wording the RAH NWS uses publicly, you can expect them to really beef up their wording this afternoon.

Read this RE: NAM..... Just poured through the hour-by-hour profiles for KCLT in BUFKIT from the 6z NAM.... 12z wasn't in yet. Really fascinating. Even out to 3-4z Sunday, the dewpoint is ABOVE freezing from essentially the SFC up to around 5k feet. Then, extremely quickly and dramatically, EXTREME drying kicks in at 2k-4k feet over the next few hours... I mean extreme. Dewpoints drop 10s of degrees C at those layers as strong NE winds kick in at those levels. That is when the dynamic cooling really starts to kick in.... which is after the end of the 3k NAM's range that someone posted a moment ago. Interesting. Compared to the 6z GFS, the NAM atmospheric profile is warmer by a decent margin than the GFS at precip onset. BUT, this isn't due to a warm nose....it's the initial airmass. At this point, for that aspect of the system, I would still give a slight lean to the globals.

6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT.

Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.

EPS as well as the control increase once again..... the control run was crazy.

Best it's looked in 24 hour or so.

The 925mb temperatures seem to be behaving very similarly to what the European model projected. Actual vs. model:

6z GFS ensembles could very well have been the warning shot.

I think conservative is the way to go for the time being, and that's the way I continue to go in my public forecast. Way too many variables and too much uncertainty to be too whipped up into a frenzy at this juncture.

Several ensemble members now have a stronger system, similar to what a few of the others models have.

GEFS went way up on snow totals in the NW half of NC on the 6z run, compared to 0z.

Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad.

I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. I'm just excited we have something already.

It took a step at 6z for sure.

The outer eyewall was really contracting on the last frames we had from TJUA radar. The ERC completed, and then the outer eyewall rapidly contracted.