.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM Saturday...
During the day Sunday the front will move from approximately the
foothills of NC eastward to roughly the I-95 corridor by late
afternoon before the front stalls. This front will be accompanied
by a band of showers and tstms that will be leftover from upstream
activity the day before. As typical this time of year, instability
will be marginal for svr weather; however deep layer wind shear will
be abundant. Thus well have to closely watch temperature trends
during the daytime Sunday and to what extent heating will contribute
to instability. In any event, given the low end potential for svr
convection, much of southern and southeast portions of central North
Carolina are highlighted as marginal in the SWODY2.
By late in the day Sunday the southern portion of the upper trof
will attempt to close off while gradually pivoting to negative tilt
by Sunday night. Vigorous forcing for ascent ahead of this
negatively tilting upper trof, by way of phasing of the northern
stream right entrance region coupled with the southern stream left
exit region of the upr jets, the GFS and European models both show
surface low pressure development along the southern end of the front
over eastern or southeastern Georgia Sunday night. Should this
indeed happen, the large scale upward forcing assoc with the surface
low lifting NE across the coastal plain of the Carolinas coupled
with the abundant moisture advection from the Atlantic could support
a heavy rain event across parts of central North Carolina late
Sunday and Sunday night. In fact, some localized flooding of poor
drainage areas looks like a possibility Sunday night despite current
drought situation. In addition, a svr convection potential will
exist east and southeast of the surface low track and in conjunction
with the warm sector Sunday and Sunday night, thus we`ll have to
closely watch that track.
As if these elements werent enough, as the low exits to our east
and cold air wraps around from the north, BL temps will rapidly
fall, and both the GFS and European suggest that the rain may
briefly mix with some wet snow mainly along and north of the highway
64 corridor during the 9Z to 15Z time frame on Monday morning. Given
the short duration of this wintry mix event, the antecedent warm
surface conditions, and given the fact that the boundary layer
temperatures will be marginally cold for wintry precip anyway, we
believe that any wet snow that falls will have very little if any
impact Monday morning.
Its worth noting that the NAM is much more progressive with both
the surface front during the day Sunday and subsequent low pressure
development along it. In fact, its low pressure development along
the front doesnt happen until the system is well to our east, thus
resulting in a non-event for us for our area Sunday night.
Unfortunately however, that model solution is an outlier among the
In terms of temps Sunday and Sunday night, high temps on Sunday of
course will be dependent on cloud coverage and precip timing and
placement. But right now it looks like most of central NC should see
high temp readings from the upper 60s across the Triad to mid 70s
across our southeast zones. Lows Sunday night will happen just
before sunrise Monday morning behind the departing cold front.