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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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CMC is more like the reg GFS.  Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker)

The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough 

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Just now, griteater said:

CMC is more like the reg GFS.  Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker)

The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough 

Ain’t much a 1044MB high can’t fix for us 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

CMC is more like the reg GFS.  Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker)

The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough 

If those GL lows weren't such a fixture most of the time I would tend to have more faith in this v16 run

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

CMC is more like the reg GFS.  Both of these are a little quicker bringing in the storm (1/2 day quicker)

The Para is a full on winter storm with a better setup with the damming high. It doesn’t have the closed low there just north of the Great Lakes like the GFS reg which doesn’t allow the sfc high to build south quick enough 

Thanks. Is it all timing ? What else needs to go right to get better? 

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16 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Thanks. Is it all timing ? What else needs to go right to get better? 

The storm wave is moving from the SW states into Missouri, then ESE into NC. It’s an odd setup but not unprecedented. That track makes sense with a -PNA / -NAO. We want to see the ridge go up quicker and stronger behind the wave to help it not gain as much latitude. With the surface high north of the Great Lakes, we just want to see that area around and north of the Great Lakes free of any short waves / closed lows - instead we want to see clean ridging building in there behind the departing early week storm and upstream of (behind) the 50/50 low complex off the Canadian Maritimes. The Para gave all of this a good effort 

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

It was the best wave pass of any run I’ve seen from any model (AZ to N OK to TN), it just didn’t have the good, damming high pressure out in front. It looks like the para is stuck at hr105 

To be honest, I feel more confident in the high than I do QPF at this point. It's hard for those La Nina waves to hold up across the country.

I picked Burlington out of thin air and there's too many 0.0s for my liking.

ecmwf-ensemble-KBUY-indiv_qpf_24-1187200.png

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Euro being a stick in the mud should give everyone great pause. There's pretty stark differences in its ensembles too. Temper your expectations in case the models slide into a Euro-ish direction today. That being said, if the euro and ensembles hop on board, we have a great (dare I say elite) long term signal.

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14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Euro being a stick in the mud should give everyone great pause. There's pretty stark differences in its ensembles too. Temper your expectations in case the models slide into a Euro-ish direction today. That being said, if the euro and ensembles hop on board, we have a great (dare I say elite) long term signal.

Ross,  As always thanks for jumping in... 

Assume you mean euro ensembles have differences with respect to other model ensembles and not 'stark differences' among their own individual panels.  Haven't looked.  If I'm not mistaken though it was the euro that saw this signal originally several days ago before the other models caught on.  So we got that hope going for us. B)

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20 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Euro being a stick in the mud should give everyone great pause. There's pretty stark differences in its ensembles too. Temper your expectations in case the models slide into a Euro-ish direction today. That being said, if the euro and ensembles hop on board, we have a great (dare I say elite) long term signal.

You're the pro so you're seeing things I'm not I am sure. I'm concerned that the flow looked so progressive on the euro. If we can slow it down like we had yesterday at 12z then I think we've got a pretty good signal. 

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10 hours ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Roxboro in good shape once again.  They never lose.

 Lmao nothing has ever been Truer. I’m getting Married next Saturday Carrigan Farms(outside)  in Mooresville NC . So it wouldnt surprise me one bit if the “fun gossip” threat occurred and we paid money and then no one could get here lol 

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