Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 So what initially looked like what would be a good solution ended up looking like the Euro. Lead southern s/w shoots out ahead not allowing for a sooner/cleaner phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya, what happened The northern stream looked like it was weaker in the later panels which allowed the southern s/w to get out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, qg_omega said: Why should this storm bomb south of long island? Am I missing something? Its a bowling ball pattern as the storm gets shunted south of the block, not that it matters much since the airmass is beyond stale and maritime. I am not understanding the hype with this storm? It's conditional ...that's why. There's been a dearth of excitement in the weather world... really since the January white hurricane ... and so, the mania that is pretty much the entire Meteorological community of hoi polloi, enthusiasts and even some professions ... is in withdraw symptoms and particularly ready to pounce on potentials - to which ... this is/was. Add to that vulnerability, there have been sporadic model cycles from both dependable and non-dependable model for historic this or that .. all saddled beneath a deep point in a negative NAO burst ... something we have/had not seen in quite some time, which only adds to the fever pitch of the dystopian drug. I'm being snarky/sarcastic to some degree, yes... however, there is some truth to all that. People that engage in this stuff can become a bit prone and thus persuaded by matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Its possible towards some of the other globals, It looked like it would have a sooner faster phase over the upper ohio valley only to close off further south and east. Yes it was better early on. Honestly that's probably all that its worth assessing right now, the NAM being the NAM. Confluence over the NE was stronger, BUT, that can be overcome for most if the initial phase continues to trend more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: We went from like 3" qpf with more to come at 6z to .5" at 12z. Gotta love the consistency. Speaks more to the instability of the model than anything else. Wait on the big league data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So what initially looked like what would be a good solution ended up looking like the Euro. Lead southern s/w shoots out ahead not allowing for a sooner/cleaner phase. Really need to see the euro have a better run than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: as i soon as i consider driving for the event, the Nam takes me from 15 inches to zero smh Ji!!! Where are you considering chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: why folks so worry about the NAM, let's see what the rest of the guidance shows.. I don't heavily weigh it yet but it's certainly worth looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yes it was better early on. Honestly that's probably all that its worth assessing right now, the NAM being the NAM. Confluence over the NE was stronger, BUT, that can be overcome for most if the initial phase continues to trend more amped. Yeah there was a little more over QUE back west this run but if this had gone nuts with phasing i don't think it would have mattered, The phase was a little more dirty, Looked like it was going to go to town then just shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Ji!!! Where are you considering chasing? after seeing the NAM....Garrett county, Maryland LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Why should this storm bomb south of long island? Am I missing something? Its a bowling ball pattern as the storm gets shunted south of the block, not that it matters much since the airmass is beyond stale and maritime. I am not understanding the hype with this storm? I'm not sure what your question is...it's pretty clear if this could go to town to the south of LI if we get a pretty good phase. It's not certain obviously, but if it does, then it would be an extremely high impact storm. Both coastal flooding and probable interior heavy wet snow (and prob even to coast too if in the right spot). I suggest looking up weather history of very deep upper lows to our south....you don't need a fresh arctic airmass for snow on those. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997 and Dec 11-12, 1992 are classic examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Speaks more to the instabilifactorsthe model than anything else. W ait on the big league data. I believe this speaks to the precariousness of needing many factors Lining up for a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's conditional ...that's why. There's been a dearth of excitement in the weather world... really since the January white hurricane ... and so, the mania that is pretty much the entire Meteorological community of hoi polloi, enthusiasts and even some professions ... is in withdraw symptoms and particularly ready to pounce on potentials - to which ... this is/was. Add to that vulnerability, there have been sporadic model cycles from both dependable and non-dependable model for historic this or that .. all saddled beneath a deep point in a negative NAO burst ... something we have/had not seen in quite some time, which only adds to the fever pitch of the dystopian drug. I'm being snarky/sarcastic to some degree, yes... however, there is some truth to all that. People that engage in this stuff can become a bit prone and thus persuaded by matters. Had 8 inches in four hours two weeks ago....doesn't get much more impressive than that. Not to mention the strongest Nor'easter in history in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Speaks more to the instability of the model than anything else. Wait on the big league data. My only takeaway was that it looked good early on. The later hour stuff is totally unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure what your question is...it's pretty clear if this could go to town to the south of LI if we get a pretty good phase. It's not certain obviously, but if it does, then it would be an extremely high impact storm. Both coastal flooding and probable interior heavy wet snow (and prob even to coast too if in the right spot). I suggest looking up weather history of very deep upper lows to our south....you don't need a fresh arctic airmass for snow on those. Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997 and Dec 11-12, 1992 are classic examples. Yeah I think we've seen enough big hits on the models in recent days to know what the risk is of high end impacts for at least parts of SNE. Not sure how you would write off this storm so easily as to say "I don't see the hype"... like discussed yesterday it's a very low floor (as in 0" snowfall) to a very high ceiling (as in feet) depending on the specifics. That was an odd post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Surprised so much analysis here. shortwave looked good early, no need to sweat details. Lets see if euro comes back a bit today, if not....we toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 hours ago people were excited by the NAM...now this I've been worried about this event for 2 days now. Lots of inconsistency. 1 step forward, 2 steps back Let's see what GFS and Euro 12z have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Probably some afternoon sun on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I believe this speaks to the precariousness of needing many factors Lining up for a bomb No, it' the NAM. Watch the rest of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah I think we've seen enough big hits on the models in recent days to know what the risk is of high end impacts for at least parts of SNE. Not sure how you would write off this storm so easily as to say "I don't see the hype"... like discussed yesterday it's a very low floor (as in 0" snowfall) to a very high ceiling (as in feet) depending on the specifics. That was an odd post. It's high stakes like we said...you can make an argument for both a historic system and not much at all. But to dismiss the potential outright at this stage isn't learning from past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I think we've seen enough big hits on the models in recent days to know what the risk is of high end impacts for at least parts of SNE. Not sure how you would write off this storm so easily as to say "I don't see the hype"... like discussed yesterday it's a very low floor (as in 0" snowfall) to a very high ceiling (as in feet) depending on the specifics. That was an odd post. That kid is a troll. He lives in NYC and spends weekends with his parents at their place in the Adirondack’s. He’s been trolling our forum for years. Thought folks knew that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 48 minutes ago, weathafella said: Mark Rosenthal looked a lot younger 25 years ago. Then again who didn’t? I know I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Last night we had the fresh prince from bel air in here, Today you get sasquatch from the daks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 If the NAM was showing a bomb and a foot plus for everyone, then the group would love it and be praising it right now. But because it shows nothing, it blows. In all seriousness, have to think this thing struggles to gain enough latitude to get us in the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That kid is a troll. He lives in NYC and spends weekends with his parents at their place in the Adirondack’s. He’s been trolling our forum for years. Thought folks knew that I don't think he's a straight troll but he definitely leans on the glass half empty side of things most of the time. I mean even if not in the game the model drama is really entertaining...but everyone on here is savvy enough to know the risks and rewards with a system like this. Hey maybe it craps the bed and is forgettable but maybe it does a Dec 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That kid is a troll. He lives in NYC and spends weekends with his parents at their place in the Adirondack’s. He’s been trolling our forum for years. Thought folks knew that Far from a kid Kevin, in fact I went to Cornell (Atmospheric Science) same time as Will but thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That kid is a troll. He lives in NYC and spends weekends with his parents at their place in the Adirondack’s. He’s been trolling our forum for years. Thought folks knew that He's not wrong. Odds favor a dull solution for most of us IMO. That said, these systems can become high end if a lot of things go right. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Far from a kid Kevin, in fact I went to Cornell (Atmospheric Science) same time as Will but thanks for playing. Shouldn't you have a red tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Far from a kid Kevin, in fact I went to Cornell (Atmospheric Science) same time as Will but thanks for playing. Then you wouldn’t have ever asked that embarrassing question if you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If the NAM was showing a bomb and a foot plus for everyone, then the group would love it and be praising it right now. But because it shows nothing, it blows. In all seriousness, have to think this thing struggles to gain enough latitude to get us in the goods. Its comical Like the rest of the models Had any clarity Gaining latitude may be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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