dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just as this is bounded on the with side by the RNA teleconnected ridge, it's northward progression is limited by the NAO block. Sell this huggerscenario. I don't see it being this amped too, but it only goes over ORH. I don't know how you can say a global scale block can have a low track inside the BM, but it's not possible to reach the lat of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The guidance is def going with a better cutoff now...limiting the eastward progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 That is a lot of QPF getting thrown back into NH and ME. I would pay good money to ride that out in the observatory at Mt. Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The guidance is def going with a better cutoff now...limiting the eastward progression. Except the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don't see it being this amped too, but it only goes over ORH. I don't know how you can say a global scale block can have a low track inside the BM, but it's not possible to reach the lat of ORH. I didn't mean its a physical impossibility, but I hedged agsinst it. I think the block makes a normally unlikely track bodily over sne even less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Some of these other model solutions should of had the SLP closer to the coast instead of chasing the convection offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 CMC would be a nice middle ground....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: CMC would be a nice middle ground....lol. Dave Kingman squaring up a fast ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 This setup is a bit odd in that we usually have significant -NAO blocking accompanied by an antecedent cold airmass. The PV split and - - PNA may cause the downstream blocking to be more easily overcome as a result. Anyway best bet right now, imo is going 70/30 12z GFS/0z Euro right now - which would be pretty close to the BM.... Seems like the envelope of 12z guidance is right around the BM as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC would be a nice middle ground....lol. Where are you seeing it? Not on Tidbits yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I'll take the 6z JMA, thanks Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Where are you seeing it? Not on Tidbits yet. Its out on some of the other vendor sites...it's a pretty nice look. But obviously one of many possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 BTV isn't getting 2.5" of QPF in this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: BTV isn't getting 2" of QPF in this lol. Probably not, but Ji was dancing a jig this far out back in Mar 01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Its out on some of the other vendor sites...it's a pretty nice look. But obviously one of many possibilities Yep, we could work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I think the GEM, as awful a model as it is, has the best idea right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Anyone feeling any more confident on any solution? Lol the definitive posts here and their I told you sos. It is a clusterf right now. The weenies on the bus go round and round. GFS is plausible, NAM is plausible, ICON is plausible, Euro is plausible. Regarding this GFS run, Brian Jeff, Gene, Whites getting a monster storm. Pf Too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Those that can see the Canadian, is it a slow moving, loopy type appeal, or progressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably not, but Ji was dancing a jig this far out back in Mar 01. There were some way North runs back then too, settled out halfway. I would think this may do the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Those that can see the Canadian, is it a slow move, loopy type appeal, or progressive? loopy doopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 One of the trends you don't want to see to avoid warmth is the main shortwave making it much further north than previous runs before congealing south of SNE...we're seeing on some of these runs like the GFS, the main ULL gets up into NW PA before sliding ESE. The allows a lot of mid-level warmth to move north. OTOH, you take some of those 30" blizzard runs from 2 days ago on the Euro, the ULL never makes it north of southern OH and goes east from there. It's a relatively subtle shift, but it can cause some ptype headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Those that can see the Canadian, is it a slow moving, loopy type appeal, or progressive? Hoth Man, you can loop the CMC on TT, just go to the MSLP Precip tab, non frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: One of the trends you don't want to see to avoid warmth is the main shortwave making it much further north than previous runs before congealing south of SNE...we're seeing on some of these runs like the GFS, the main ULL gets up into NW PA before sliding ESE. The allows a lot of mid-level warmth to move north. OTOH, you take some of those 30" blizzard runs from 2 days ago on the Euro, the ULL never makes it north of southern OH and goes east from there. It's a relatively subtle shift, but it can cause some ptype headaches. Yeah I mentioned earlier how GFS has been pushing that primary further and further up into the Lakes before transferring. Still not sure I buy it with the block, but that would not help us here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Anyone feeling any more confident on any solution? Lol the definitive posts here and their I told you sos. It is a clusterf right now. The weenies on the bus go round and round. GFS is plausible, NAM is plausible, ICON is plausible, Euro is plausible. Regarding this GFS run, Brian Jeff, Gene, Whites getting a monster storm. Pf Too. Yeah, I don't know how anyone can pick out any one model run out and say this is the most likely scenario, Right now, It is still being sorted out, But you get a real clean stronger/earlier phase, And these northern solutions can happen, There are going to be some that get hosed by the eventual outcome, No getting out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hoth Man, you can loop the CMC on TT, just go to the MSLP Precip tab, non frozen Good man, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 You can see the changes from 36 hours ago. Look at both how much farther north (as Will said) the shortwaves come and just how much more consolidated they are (vs. nearly separate 36 hours ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Didn't everyone say the Canadian was garbage last night? and the Nam had the best idea?...LOL. Weenies gone wild. Best of luck peeps. We'll be praying for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Didn't everyone say the Canadian was garbage last night? and the Nam had the best idea?...LOL. Weenies gone wild. Best of luck peeps. We'll be praying for you. you guys make up a lot of sh it, go back to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You can see the changes from 36 hours ago. Look at both how much farther north (as Will said) the shortwaves come and just how much more consolidated they are (vs. nearly separate 36 hours ago). The fuse got lit at 12z with a stronger Northern s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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