Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Maine in ****ed on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Yeah I'd think intuitively that's a bit aggressive. But I prefer that look to the unphased shunt for sure. I'll take my chances with a phase...no chance with meager dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Someone fire up the lawn thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: LOL I'll take the under in latitude on that. Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: LOL Dryslotted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GGEM is beautiful though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 hehe, we swinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I’m confused by some of the commentary in here. So the NAM is wrong because it’s a whiff, and the gfs is wrong because it’s to far north. Are people expecting this to land exactly in the thread the needle area we need it to be as the most likely scenario? Sell that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Gives me my long awaited firehose albeit liquid form. Please go back south. Return to sender, address unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 The funny thing is... the position of that low is so high stakes for impact profile that the standard error seem ginormous ... but in reality, it may not be so bad. Having said that? That's as fair as I'm going to be for the GFS because this model seems to spraying solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3+ inches of rain to a full on snowstorm in Maine. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m confused by some of the commentary in here. So the NAM is wrong because it’s a whiff, and the gfs is wrong because it’s to far north. Are people expecting this to land exactly in the thread the needle area we need it to be as the most likely scenario? Sell that This is a magical block that focuses all desirable weather toward SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m confused by some of the commentary in here. So the NAM is wrong because it’s a whiff, and the gfs is wrong because it’s to far north. Are people expecting this to land exactly in the thread the needle area we need it to be as the most likely scenario? Sell that You must be new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Push the GFS a bit south and that would be perfect....we get stuck right in the stinger tail of WAA in SNE and can't cool off. Kind of suspect though given that ULL track. There's a black hole forming in the upper atmosphere from ACY to the benchmark that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m confused by some of the commentary in here. So the NAM is wrong because it’s a whiff, and the gfs is wrong because it’s to far north. Are people expecting this to land exactly in the thread the needle area we need it to be as the most likely scenario? Sell that No one is saying that it's wrong, just that it seems unlikely to hug that much given a highly anomalous block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Give me my long awaited firehose albeit liquid form. Please go back south. Return to sender, address unknown. You would get coc blocked in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You would get coc blocked in that. That's playing with fire with H85 hanging around 0C. If that came to fruition and we were isothermal for the entire length of that column I think my house would cave in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Push the GFS a bit south and that would be perfect....we get stuck right in the stinger tail of WAA in SNE and can't cool off. Kind of suspect though given that ULL track. There's a black hole forming in the upper atmosphere from ACY to the benchmark that run. This is actually a bias in the GFS I have noticed over the years ... When the lower troposopheric thickness layout offers less resistance, it loves to foist its surface reflections around the top/polarward side of the mid level centers. ... you end up with these laterally inverted circulation plumes with cold moving E under warm moving west lobes of atmosphere... This could also be related to what Scott has been hammering re the BL warm bias in this model too. It just really seems like it's missing a set of physical equations that govern that lower thickness medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 i said it yesterday...shunted south or rain and here we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The funny thing is... the position of that low is so high stakes for impact profile that the standard error seem ginormous ... but in reality, it may not be so bad. Having said that? That's as fair as I'm going to be for the GFS because this model seems to spraying solutions. Like a dong just spraying all directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: This is a magical block that focuses all desirable weather toward SNE. I believe several GEFS members have some of these amped up members with this type of scenario, You get an early clean phase and your open to getting these tracks, I don't know why some think this is only operating in a 100 mile path, You get a low of that strength, And its can over come a lot of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 One thing about both the CMC and GFS...ptype aside, it is like a 48 hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just as this is bounded on the with side by the RNA teleconnected ridge, it's northward progression is limited by the NAO block. Sell this hugger scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Thursday night Red eye SFO-pwm cancel uncancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Push the GFS a bit south and that would be perfect....we get stuck right in the stinger tail of WAA in SNE and can't cool off. Kind of suspect though given that ULL track. There's a black hole forming in the upper atmosphere from ACY to the benchmark that run. Yeah, back to the science, you can see the best focing looks S & W of where the SLP is when looking at the 06z Friday graphics. May not change the precip type but you can argue for as southward correction in track given the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: That's playing with fire with H85 hanging around 0C. If that came to fruition and we were isothermal for the entire length of that column I think my house would cave in. Quite sure with the amount of wind i would be seeing and the paste here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 We are right back to a long duration, days and days of early rain flipping to heavy wet snows it seems . Def not progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: i said it yesterday...shunted south or rain and here we are There's the attitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Looks like the -NAO blocking was weaker that run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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