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  1. Well, sufficed it is to say ... we have reasonable to above normal confidence for a strong, westerly based NAO blocking event throughout the latter middle and extended range, and ..related too, an event that is trackable. We could go into a lot of discussion about the NAO for its own identity and evolution, but, the focus of this thread is on the event scheduled to impact the MA/NE regions from roughly March 1 through the 3rd or 4th, which is obviously directly related. Firstly, this is not likely to be a 'clean' snowy storm. Expectations for rain...perhaps a lot of it, should be in play, particularly in the first half of this. In fact, as is, the models are hitting at cold rain that transitions to snow as the mid levels close off and dynamics work into the N-NW arc of the low circulation. Wind swept cat-paws over to 'parachutes' with occasional thunder. Therein enters a reasonably good chance that a large area will eventually transition to a lot of snow! One thing that is interesting is that the 500 mb heights deepen some 6 to 10 DAM as the axis passes quintessentially underneath LI by about 2 or 3 Deg latitude, descending to 528! That's nooooot usually a rain event at those depths - red flag. This is early speculative on details that are certainly going to change, but ... the focus on this as a meaningful event is warranted at this time (in my mind) as it has some more hemispheric scaled events behind it's emergence. Those tend to have a bit more confidence for occurrence at extended leads. There are a lot of correct-able facets about the details ... we can iron those out as the week progresses. For now, there is a decent agreement from all operational model sources, for an important event of wind and QPF, and one that is associated to the total behavior of the NAO.
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