wxsniss Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6z Nam, Gfs, Gefs, Icon all big hitsCoincidence or is there new data ingested e.g. energy by gulf of Alaska...? Icon's solution would have significant damaging impact on eSNE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 That was the best run of the GEFS by far... H5 with a fantastic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Yup maybe some new data ingested..that the Euro didn’t have yet?? Man the Euro is a shadow of its old self..especially if it jumps on board today at 12z?? Pattern argues for what the 6z runs just showed...makes more sense meteorologically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Man the Euro is a shadow of its old self.. So is America, if you believe that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The data is 6 hours newer, to be precise. Ka pow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Looks to me like the Euro had its usual mid-range burp run. I remember it doing that during one mid-range run with last March's storm amid a long series of consistent outputs. Anyone else think the GFS is pushing that primary too far up north into the Lakes? I would think it would transfer faster than that...Anyway, I'd expect to get a better handle on the actual outcome today. The shortwaves should be well sampled, so I'd expect less spread in the ensemble means this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Models now keying on the rapid crash in temperatures Friday morning. NAM/ICON showing ths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 EPS are more bullish than OP so it's not like the euro is giving no support to a big solution. Let's see what 12z brings. I got a feeling the OP will bump north today...even if it isn't a full fledge nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, GFS with the stupid insane T-Td spread again on the soundings. Tossed. Has almost a 6F T-TD spread at ORH at the height of the CCB. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 There are our players. Both look pretty swole to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Has almost a 6F T-TD spread at ORH at the height of the CCB. Lol. What the hell is causing that? Time of year? That's an embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: There are our players. Both look pretty swole to me. Avocado ice cream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What the hell is causing that? Time of year? That's an embarrassment. Yeah I don't get it. Whatever the cause of it...it's tossed. If we have wetbulb zeros below 925mb in that type of precip, it ain't gonna be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't get it. Whatever the cause of it...it's tossed. If we have wetbulb zeros below 925mb in that type of precip, it ain't gonna be rain. If someone isn't careful, that's a recipe for a bad forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 You just hope everyone is paste . Hills, valleys, coasts. Regionwide 31-32 degree shutdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If someone isn't careful, that's a recipe for a bad forecast. Cough, cough, Pete B. I still haven't forgiven his 3/13 forecast. I was in the ballroom at 60 State for an annual meeting that morning watching fatties pound down through the floor to ceiling windows, trying to guess at how many multiples off his accumulation forecast would be. It was a big multiple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You just hope everyone is paste . Hills, valleys, coasts. Regionwide 31-32 degree shutdown How can everyone be the same temp? When has that ever happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 has to be a glich? no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, GFS with the stupid insane T-Td spread again on the soundings. Tossed. See .. I heard/read what you said yesterday, re the day-time heating stuff... but I think the problem is purely hygroscopic thermodynamics in this model. It's simply failing to saturate the BLs everywhere, and that has a nasty feedback of being way warm biased when approaching pseudo-adiabatic - in other words it can't see the latter at all. Buut that's me own speculation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: How can everyone be the same temp? When has that ever happened Oct 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Oh wow, just looked at 6z Nam. How I hope that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 So my initial thoughts looking over the latest models. I like seeing that southern lead shortwave shooting out ahead and than being captured by the northern one. What that does is cuts off the ML warming sooner allowing for a more rapid transition to snow as the MLs get cranking. Having the EPS north of the OP is a good sign. I wonder if what we have is the Euro historical tendency of holding back energy in the SW and ejecting slower. The NAM/GFS/ICON are all crippling storms as currently modeled. Let see what 12z brings today. If @OceanStWx is online I'd like to hear about the model sensitivity right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Oh wow, just looked at 6z Nam. How I hope that's right. Oneonta crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Well... obviously that's less savory as a series of runs. It's probably less than deterministically ideal to have to rely upon the NAM beyond 60 hours to be the most accurate when assessing threats. That's the nice way of putting things. The Euro being D4 was a red flag to me. Is the model infallible ? No... buuut, is the model rarely wrong at that range? Yes. If it's any consolation ... it still likes the slow moving cold event D8.5 through 10... So, in the spirit of sarcasm/commiseration ... if, or perhaps when, this thing completes its theft of the last 7 days of your lives ... you won't have to wait long to start tapping the mania sap of the next delusion - muah hahahaha. Anyway, the 06z GFS coming back a bit more robustly is actually intriguing considering that Euro .. You now, frankly, part of me wants the Euro to be wrong - because the (admittedly) pettiness in me gets annoyed when one model garners the reputation and therefore, power over either deterministic confidence, and/or everyone's sense of gaiety and well-being ...whatever reason people engage in this silly hobby or profession for. Whenever I see a tweet tsunamis occur just because of a single Euro run, and/or everyone else is riveted into this manic euphoria joy posting frenzy, or the opposite, somber morass ... simply because of that model's run, it's a major put-off for me. I really wanna see a big hit when that model shows less, and vice versa. That fact that we rarely do, if ever .. is acknowledged, ... I don't deny the tools skill. But the whole thing of it lords over ... and I don't like it particularly when it is wrong sometimes. In fact, if I really analyzed the 'feeling' ...it may not even be the Euro that is annoying - it's the knee jerk line toeing of the people that use it perhaps. hmm. Here's a prediction : The NAM comes in unraveled and Judas and that will really be a dark nadir in the tenor waiting for the big correction of the Euro that's coming at 1... That would be deviantly fun to witness ... I'm kidding of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 hours ago, JC-CT said: Gotcha. Lol I knew exactly what you were saying, it was well Iconnic lol. Quite the quandary after reviewing every piece of data known to man this morning, geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Lol I knew exactly what you were saying, it was well Iconnic lol. Quite the quandary after reviewing every piece of data known to man this morning, geez Whats Ur Gut say Mossup Mauler Cumberland crippler Lights out Lincoln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Leaving sensible weather impacts aside, you have to objectively love the trend on the GFS looping the past 5 or so runs at hr 72 at H5-- a steady trend north and deeper, with an earlier cut-off. Our primary now makes it into Western NYS...That's much better than where we stood at this time yesterday... Imo chances for a track close to or inside the BM has greatly increased from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I wish eversource or whoever is in mass had a prop wager for million plus w out power. Prob get in now on 100-1 odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I'm going to get Dec 92'ed again, aren't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 is it time to start posting the SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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