EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Leaving sensible weather impacts aside, you have to objectively love the trend on the GFS looping the past 5 or so runs at hr 72 at H5-- a steady trend north and deeper, with an earlier cut-off. Our primary now makes it into Western NYS...That's much better than where we stood at this time yesterday... Imo chances for a track close to or inside the BM has greatly increased from yesterday. Do you think that the NAM's depiction of snow to the coast is realistic (I.e. the storm can bomb out to that intensity to allow for that much cooling)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I'm going to get Dec 92'ed again, aren't I? Mm... the most sensible, objective assessment for where things should align based upon all available data at this time does not , at this time, include a future that ends nearly as well for you that far N... no - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So my initial thoughts looking over the latest models. I like seeing that southern lead shortwave shooting out ahead and than being captured by the northern one. What that does is cuts off the ML warming sooner allowing for a more rapid transition to snow as the MLs get cranking. Having the EPS north of the OP is a good sign. I wonder if what we have is the Euro historical tendency of holding back energy in the SW and ejecting slower. The NAM/GFS/ICON are all crippling storms as currently modeled. Let see what 12z brings today. If @OceanStWx is online I'd like to hear about the model sensitivity right now. The 00z suite still has the bulk (even more than 12z yesterday) of the variance explained by a north/south dipole off the New England coast. So much of the ensemble differences are between north/south positioning not east/west or strength. The upper air pattern that supports that is somewhat convoluted, but does show that there was some sensitivity to initialization. Namely the wave dropping down the West Coast. Mean modeled heights were lower than observed (opposite of the sensitivity pattern) so some corrections SE may happen today. But the northern stream modeled heights are actually higher than observed, so maybe not. It's not a strong pattern, so strong moves one way or another shouldn't be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Whats Ur Gut say Mossup Mauler Cumberland crippler Lights out Lincoln Guts says the banana and OJ I had this morning were not enough. Honestly IDK. Tricky Dicky situation as all phase capture storms are. If it does phase and slow near the coast its Katy bar the door. Full moon goons are the best. Green flag GEFS have not changed in days with -Sds, Red Flag Euro Op and a bunch of EPS members, buckle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I hate tricky dickies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Dick Trickle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Doaaw you think that the NAM's depiction of snow to the coast is realistic (I.e. the storm can bomb out to that intensity to allow for that much cooling)? Also lots of drainage from the N /NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thats what we like to see in the big ones I recall when Wx4cast posted these how valuable they were for slow staller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm going to get Dec 92'ed again, aren't I? I might too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Also lots of drainage from the N /NE Thanks. 2002 Christmas noreaster surprised many with a similar cold and snowy ending. At the coast we were supposed to briefly change to snow but ended up with 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Straight up easterlies at 250 mb is definitely something to be aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Fuzzy clustering run last night, so I'll see what I can glean out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The 00z suite still has the bulk (even more than 12z yesterday) of the variance explained by a north/south dipole off the New England coast. So much of the ensemble differences are between north/south positioning not east/west or strength. The upper air pattern that supports that is somewhat convoluted, but does show that there was some sensitivity to initialization. Namely the wave dropping down the West Coast. Mean modeled heights were lower than observed (opposite of the sensitivity pattern) so some corrections SE may happen today. But the northern stream modeled heights are actually higher than observed, so maybe not. It's not a strong pattern, so strong moves one way or another shouldn't be expected. Thanks. Convoluted to say the least than. 12z suite will definitely give some answers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Fuzzy clustering run last night, so I'll see what I can glean out of that. At this point are we in or out of the game up this way? Do we need a few more ticks north to get into the good stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Straight up easterlies at 250 mb is definitely something to be aware of. Tandy Andy's favorite. That increase has been steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, tunafish said: At this point are we in or out of the game up this way? Do we need a few more ticks north to get into the good stuff? If that phases with all that east inflow and you with a good DP drain, its pretty much a shutdown situation on the Maine coast IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 the fish are gonna get all screwed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thanks. Convoluted to say the least than. 12z suite will definitely give some answers though. Rolling it forward to the 12z raobs, the 00z Euro is actually closest to observed. Euro sensitivity matches the GEFS too (the majority is explained by a north/south positioning difference). I think we really want to see heights falling below forecast just downstream of the wave later today, with higher heights through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes late today into tomorrow. That's a pattern that seems to produce what the weenies want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: If that phases with all that east inflow and you with a good DP drain, its pretty much a shutdown situation on the Maine coast IMHO National guard deployment all of New Eng? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm going to get Dec 92'ed again, aren't I? We will know soon enough, I haven't had a real good feeling for this, Just don't like the way the whole precip field and H5 low gets squeezed out under the block in a NW-SE trajectory, That is why i want to see the primary get as far north and west before that all takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, tunafish said: At this point are we in or out of the game up this way? Do we need a few more ticks north to get into the good stuff? We definitely need several more ticks to get in on anything worthwhile. It could really be a sharp northerly cutoff too. EEN to PSM is probably closer enough to still have some hope, but north of that needs help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Even the 1992 storm brought 6 inches (of snow) as far south as western Long Island on the last day. Obviously not the same type of storm but can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Rolling it forward to the 12z raobs, the 00z Euro is actually closest to observed. Euro sensitivity matches the GEFS too (the majority is explained by a north/south positioning difference). I think we really want to see heights falling below forecast just downstream of the wave later today, with higher heights through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes late today into tomorrow. That's a pattern that seems to produce what the weenies want to see. Yeah, I was thinking we will see some sort of compromise in between the OP GFS/EUro runs at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The fuzzy clustering has two good groups (out of 5) for New England (but about half the members because a lot are clustered around the ensemble mean which is good). What those two groups have in common are faster and stronger primary low development, and deeper/faster 500 mb trough development with the northern stream and weaker NAO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Do you think that the NAM's depiction of snow to the coast is realistic (I.e. the storm can bomb out to that intensity to allow for that much cooling)? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Yes. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: The fuzzy clustering has two good groups (out of 5) for New England (but about half the members because a lot are clustered around the ensemble mean which is good). What those two groups have in common are faster and stronger primary low development, and deeper/faster 500 mb trough development with the northern stream and weaker NAO ridging. The faster stronger development is key, That's what we want to see, The sooner the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 92 and that is not temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z NAM already looks slightly better out the 27 on all fronts. Higher heights over the Northeast, and deeper shortwave over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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