October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro is nasty here. Looks like it was drunk at 00z.

It seems to get drunk much more now a days.  It Must be hanging with their cousin more now, the Ukie. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro ai ensemble mean is stalled south of BID for awhile. 

So the AI’s are still bringing the more significant solutions? 

[Chrisrotary12]

Can we at least save Saturday? Sunday is for church and watching football.... but Saturday is for outdoor activities.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is why tracking a system 10 days out usually leads to disappointment. The envelop is so small for a region wide hit, it’s almost definitely not going to happen as depicted at that timeframe.

I’d favor the cape for real impacts right now and tapering off NW of there 

[Bostonseminole]

Euro still looks pretty good to me

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is why tracking a system 10 days out usually leads to disappointment. The envelop is so small for a region wide hit, it’s almost definitely not going to happen as depicted at that timeframe.

I’d favor the cape for real impacts right now and tapering off NW of there 

Haven’t been on in months…I just looked at this Monday night, so before that I knew nothing about it. Was actually nice not looking at this from 8-10 days out. 

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is why tracking a system 10 days out usually leads to disappointment. The envelop is so small for a region wide hit, it’s almost definitely not going to happen as depicted at that timeframe.

I’d favor the cape for real impacts right now and tapering off NW of there 

Guess you are throwing out the Euro again. 

[Ginx snewx]

5H is sick. Man give us this late January 

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

5H is sick. Man give us this late January 

That would be a nice track for a snowstorm... but alas

[CCHurricane]

12Z NAM (12km) an absolute mess

[Bostonseminole]

15 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

12Z NAM (12km) an absolute mess

yeah, pretty Meh

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That would be a nice track for a snowstorm... but alas

What happens in September…the atmosphere will remember….. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

12Z NAM (12km) an absolute mess

The NAM model is a mess. 

[weatherwiz]

The NAM very well may go out on a very sad demise 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

5H is sick. Man give us this late January 

That happened this past winter.

[Anyone that's a Patriots fan should be glad that the Bills did not beat the Broncos. If the Bills had won, the AFC Championship Game would have been played in that blizzard, and I don't think the Pats beat the Bills in those conditions. If anyone is equipped to play in those conditions, it's Josh Allen.]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That happened this past winter.

[Anyone that's a Patriots fan should be glad that the Bills did not beat the Broncos. If the Bills had won, the AFC Championship Game would have been played in that blizzard, and I don't think the Pats beat the Bills in those conditions. If anyone is equipped to play in those conditions, it's Josh Allen.]

I didn't need a blizzard to feel this way.

[dendrite]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What happens in September…the atmosphere will remember….. 

50s/60s and rain?

[Brian5671]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The NAM model is a mess. 

A complete miss lol

[Brian5671]

36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM very well may go out on a very sad demise 

When does it stop running?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

When does it stop running?

I think Oct. 6 unless its been pushed back again. 

[dendrite]

It’s still coming west at 84hr, but yeah…not looking like a major impact that run. It’s better than 6z.

Can’t trust the 12k nam past 6hr anyway.

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON and its members still pretty good

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A complete miss lol

Sign me up for that outcome.  

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

@CoastalWx will like this run

[dendrite]

Yeah ICON is a doozy. RGEM is pretty far east, but wet enough to ruin the weekend.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man let’s lock that German run . Thats a ripper 

[weatherwiz]

Pretty stout LLJ. 

[dendrite]

Pretty good back bent warm front and LLJ on the Rufus despite the low initially hooking west toward the Delmarva. Then it dumbbells back around toward the islands for round 2. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, we would take icon, but that’s still kind of a JV model to me