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MJOatleast7

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  1. MJOatleast7

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    Yup the first one went to like 949 mb or something crazy like that off HAT...actually performed as modeled https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_North_American_blizzard
  2. MJOatleast7

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    Yes, have to avoid the one-eyed pig. Hopefully it stays away
  3. MJOatleast7

    Coldtober model and pattern disco

    also delivers big rain to Cape Cod from Michael/CFP
  4. MJOatleast7

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    Was confused for a minute, then oh yeah..."RI means Rapid Intensification", not "Rhode Island"...my bad
  5. MJOatleast7

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    That paper seemed to suggest that it isthe Gulf Stream mainly, not so much the Greenland or tropical SST anomalies, that are the driver for NH winter patterns. Do you agree that our NAO state would be driven mainly by the GS SST anomalies (really warm and centered right along the GS this year) and that it shows a strong signal for +NAO?
  6. MJOatleast7

    September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall

    countering this, it seems is Mangkhut barreling west into Asia as a Cat 4 ... not recurving .. usu correlated with a warm surge in the CONUS in about 10 days, no? That would put warmth into the last week of Sept. - What the GFS is signaling.
  7. MJOatleast7

    July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

    And just down the lake...
  8. MJOatleast7

    July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

    Anyone catch this odd little spin east of HAT?
  9. MJOatleast7

    Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

    Thunderstorm may have gone overhead.
  10. MJOatleast7

    Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

    GFS also looked a hair colder, RS line farther SE, more of a warm core. Wow
  11. MJOatleast7

    Long lasting intense Cold for New England

    Christmas 1980 comes to mind. BOS hit -8 that morning and although there was a strong wind, some locations in the burbs probably hit -10. Oddly I can't find official records on wunderground, but I remember hearing on the radio a forecast for -10 to -15 actual in the burbs. This was after a high in the upper 30s the previous day. Jan. 2003 also had a min about -7 in BOS, so probably then too.
  12. MJOatleast7

    Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

    Rocket fuel.
  13. def ticked colder on the 12z GFS...
  14. MJOatleast7

    Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

    Of course it makes a difference if the pattern actually produces or not...I think many of us would feel better about a 2-week pattern that gave a few nickel-and-dimes plus a bigger event but would feel cheated if the same pattern with the same temps was dry and gave us a dusting or 2.. I guess some on here are afraid of the latter.
  15. MJOatleast7

    Fall 2017 Model Mehham

    Arctic shots will help knock down the SSTs anyway, even if no storm results. So going forward it's a good thing, SSTs are still crazy warm
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