Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[EastonSN+]

The inverted trough feature may clip us even if the coastal low does not.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Euro isn’t interested so maybe you’ll see some waves at the beach starting Sunday morning 

Euro hasn't been good at all

[Nibor]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro hasn't been good at all

You can keep saying this all you want it doesn't change the fact that it's a much better skilled model than the GFS and CMC. Unless it corrects west it's a major red flag.

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro hasn't been good at all

I think we also need to put in perspective that its not JUST the EURO. EURO has never favored a storm, but ensembles and ops even of the most bullish models have wavered quite a bit in the last 48 hours. I like a S NJ for this and going with a coastal grazer for now

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

You can keep saying this all you want it doesn't change the fact that it's a much better skilled model than the GFS and CMC. Unless it corrects west it's a major red flag.

is it better than Euro AI?

[North and West]

It’s won’t pan out there. We’re still 4-5 days out. You don’t want to be in the bullseye at this range 

.

[Nibor]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is it better than Euro AI?

Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC.

If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.

[SleetStormNJ]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro hasn't been good at all

Its a model, not an oracle.  I see it both ways, Euro is a good weather model, but if one setup/type of storm gives me pause with Euro here - its these.  I'm still waiting on my 40 inches the Euro promised me in January 2015.

[JonClaw]

Good trends overnight. Remains to be seen if the GFS caves to the Euro or vice versa.

The biggest difference between the two that I see is that piece of energy in Canada at 500mb.

On the GFS, it dives down. On the Euro, it stays closed off which messes up the timing.

 

 

Someone who knows way more than me can provide a better explanation of what's going on here.

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

RGEM at 84 looks like 00z ggem

I don’t like seeing the 10 trillion little vortmaxes ahead of the trough as well. Those spawn convection and string our storm out. We need for a main vortmax to consolidate. 

[SACRUS]

The AI (GFS / EUro) Total QPF

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

15 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC.

If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.

I hear you, I would love the euro on board too but it has been predicting terrible this year! We'll see what happens we should have consensus by tomorrow evening!

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC.

If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.

The last I saw was that the AIFS held an edge 4-5 days out but they were comparable within 3 day or shorter timeframes.

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The last I saw was that the AIFS held an edge 4-5 days out but they were comparable within 3 day or shorter timeframes.

 

Interesting summary on model scoring and performance from the all mighty AI:

 

Why the Euro still “wins” — but can mislead

The Euro:

• Excels at 500 mb pattern evolution

• Handles blocking better than most

• Is more conservative with amplification

That means:

• It often looks right early

• It resists dramatic coastal solutions

• It avoids overreaction

But in snowstorm setups:

• That same conservatism can equal early suppression

• It may be “right” synoptically but late on sensible weather

• It often makes small late corrections that have huge snowfall implications

This is why many historic Northeast storms looked “meh” on the Euro at Day 4… until Day 2.

[SACRUS]

 

Re-weight models:

• Euro / UKMET → pattern control, blocking, timing

• GFS / CMC → sensitivity to phasing and coastal capture

• Ensembles → probability space and risk envelope

• AI models → early signal detection, persistence recognition

This is why a west-leaning GFS + west-leaning GEFS can be taken seriously even if the Euro “scores better” overall.

---

Bottom line

• Yes, the Euro is statistically the best model overall

• But that ranking is dominated by 500 mb and synoptic skill

• Northeast snowstorms depend on lower-level and mesoscale details that are not heavily weighted in those scores

• As a result, model rankings ≠ snowfall accuracy

• For East Coast storms, trend consistency and ensemble behavior often matter more than raw skill scores

[Santa Claus]

[RU848789]

TWC just had a great set of visuals/animation for both the GFS and Euro runs and also demonstrating what's "steering" all of this, i.e., the big upper level low/trough moving south from Alaska towards off of Seattle, which drives the upper level ridge in the Rockies which drives the upper level trough in the eastern US which our eventual surface low rides along, showing how if the trough is too "flat" the storm heads way SE of the benchmark and we get a whiff or not much (Euro), while if the trough is sharper/deeper it drives that surface low NE-ward towards the benchmark and we get a bomb (GFS). 

As one might expect, without enough data (and conflicting data) on all of these features (especially that Gulf of Alaska low), the TWC is predicting a bit of a blend of the GFS/Euro, leaning more towards the Euro, but still giving some heavy snow for the coast and less inland, somewhat like the Euro-AIFS, with maybe 3-5" for 95/NW and 5-8" SE of 95 to the coast.  Will try to post the video, but for now, here's the pic of their thoughts for the storm: it's not a formal forecast, but their purple is usually 5-8" and dark blue is usually 3-5".  It's not a bad "forecast" IMO.  

[SACRUS]

Creeping back GFS weighted im sure

Day 4-5

[Freezing Drizzle]

10 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

Related to what's called geophagia, the eating of earth, usually clays. Some think that this phenomenon is due to a deep instinct to consume minerals and to adsorb toxins in the gut.  I recall that it's most common with women.

[nycsnow]

84 hr 12z nam is a weak 1006mb low sliding off the Carolina’s lol

[sussexcountyobs]

15 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Related to what's called geophagia, the eating of earth, usually clays. Some think that this phenomenon is due to a deep instinct to consume minerals and to adsorb toxins in the gut.  I recall that it's most common with women.

I'll pass. I have spaghetti and meatballs tonight. 

[psv88]

Grazer coming. Follow the seasonal trends 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Brutal but one must accept the reality here. 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Brutal but one must accept the reality here. 

The reality that there’s still multiple different solutions on the table?

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Brutal but one must accept the reality here. 

too many opinions here. the pros say something might happen, probably won't. go through this all season in boating/fishing season....will we get seasick or rocked at sea or not? if we stay home, the weather will be better than forecast, if we go out, it will be worse.....can't win. 

[EastonSN+]

If that inverted trough can move a bit further east we can get an ok snowfall.

[EastonSN+]

That invt trough has up to .5 qpf. 

Worst case here is we are right between the two.

[WeatherGeek2025]

I'm sticking with what the Euro AI shows but you already know that cause I say it a million times! Euro AI is the new king in town!

[STORMANLI]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'll pass. I have spaghetti and meatballs tonight. 

Apologies if this is in the banter category, but The B52s might suggest a Rock Lobster.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If that inverted trough can move a bit further east we can get an ok snowfall.

They do usually move east over time but sometimes they never happen at all. Probably the least predictable of the different features.