Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Volcanic Winter]

Not caught up in the thread but wow 18z Euro has a shift west + a healthier northwestern precip shield. I had just told my wife to write this thing off, not about to believe the GFS on an island again. 

Positive development if this repeats next run. Euro has been locked in on nothing. 

[nycsnow]

Ukie eps

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yes they mutual aided is for a tanker

that's all that matters euro ai came out way west is what missed

[tdp146]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will be staying up until 5 with my newborn.

Been there. Good luck

[JustinRP37]

Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will be staying up until 5 with my newborn.

one day in the future you will be waiting up for them to get home, and worried as hell.....especially when they shut the phone off so you don't bother them....

[Juturna]

Wagons west! 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table. 

Totally fair, just for my thinking the parallels to the follow up storm a week after 1/25 are undeniable. 

Of course hoping for a better outcome.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table. 

march 2017...and the day before mitchell volk warned that he thought it was possible for the city and nearby suburbs; he was correct; the sleet line went all the way up though north jersey still had a good storm; we had a few inches and the shore had so little a guy posted himself bass fishing in ocean county during " the blizzard"....and he caught a few.....

[JonClaw]

Euro stopped closing off that damn Canadian vort this run!

[NYER72]

Bernie Rayno was saying on Accuweather (yesterday) that this only had a 15% chance of being a SECS. Recall someone saying he was ALWAYS wrong?!

[jm1220]

Good signs at 18z for sure, if 0z doubles down and adds support from the GGEM it’ll be reason for real optimism. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

we still have 3 days to go and a lot can happen but if it's all the same I am going to go back and reread 10 or 15 pages of posts that were giving this thread last rites and giggle,,,,,,,,in other news keep coming west baby !!!

 

[Blizzardo]

12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yes they mutual aided is for a tanker

Off topic.. is that old camp still out there with a bunch of white shacks and buildings on it? I lived out there for like 5 months working on them old buildings and shacks many moons ago! Lol

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Good signs at 18z for sure, if 0z doubles down and adds support from the GGEM it’ll be reason for real optimism. 

Guess I’m going to work on 4 hours sleep tomorrow 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Guess I’m going to work on 4 hours sleep tomorrow 

I dont stay up anymore I just look at how many pages there are since I went to bed-lots I know it's good...

[TJW014]

If 18z trends hold on with the 0z suite I'd say the odds for warning level snows increase significantly for NYC. 

Still, I'm cautious. We've had the rug pulled out beneath us before. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Guess I’m going to work on 4 hours sleep tomorrow 

Very fragile setup like others are saying with a ton of pieces to work out. Could easily go a couple hundred miles back east. But there’s a way for the pieces to come together for a big hit-a phase in the right place, the confluence easing a little and enough ridging ahead of it to allow for a tucked in track. And enough wave spacing to have our storm with enough room to consolidate into a major nor’easter. 

[JustinRP37]

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

march 2017...and the day before mitchell volk warned that he thought it was possible for the city and nearby suburbs; he was correct; the sleet line went all the way up though north jersey still had a good storm; we had a few inches and the shore had so little a guy posted himself bass fishing in ocean county during " the blizzard"....and he caught a few.....

Yes! I think that was the one. I was still in tuckahoe and it quickly went to sleet then plain rain. Then I knew we had a massive bust. 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I dont stay up anymore I just look at how many pages there are since I went to bed-lots I know it's good...

i don't stay up.....but men of a certain age do not sleep all night; so when i have my 3 am wake up i check and usually see it has either fallen apart or looks good....then by morning it will be the opposite. happens every time and people here live and die by runs that mean nothing until a day or so before.

[Shades]

15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table. 

Longtime lurker. Usually lurking for reasons gratefully worded. The models don't care what anyone feels about them. 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Very fragile setup like others are saying with a ton of pieces to work out. Could easily go a couple hundred miles back east. But there’s a way for the pieces to come together for a big hit-a phase in the right place, the confluence easing a little and enough ridging ahead of it to allow for a tucked in track. And enough wave spacing to have our storm with enough room to consolidate into a major nor’easter. 

We’re getting a lot more recon data in models to hopefully the trend keeps Going 

[wthrmn654]

12 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Off topic.. is that old camp still out there with a bunch of white shacks and buildings on it? I lived out there for like 5 months working on them old buildings and shacks many moons ago! Lol

I think so. I haven't been in the islands in so many years like when I was a kid lol

[nycsnow]

Upton knew it was coming

Something else to note which has been
consistent in the EPS Ensemble is that through the last 3 runs
(18z 2/18 - 06z 2/19) there has been a pretty large cluster of
member lows that are lying just northwest of the mean low
location. This gives some confidence to an eventual continued
northwest trend even though the ECMWF has consistently been one
of the farther/drier solutions. The latest 12z run however has
actually had a slight tick to the northwest. This is a trend
worth monitoring.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yes! I think that was the one. I was still in tuckahoe and it quickly went to sleet then plain rain. Then I knew we had a massive bust. 

Mar 2017 was the second worst bust where I live other than Mar 2001, maybe even actually worse. 12”+ predicted, ended up 4” maybe all washed away by the end. Utterly horrendous. Other than that disaster 16-17 was actually a decent winter. 

[nycsnow]

It is possible that there may be better agreement with tonight`s
guidance as one of the many players is now over the CONUS upper
air network and may be sampled better. This is a vigorous
shortwave that is currently diving south along the west coast.
This shortwave will have some influence on another shortwave/mid
level close low farther north in Canada. This interaction could
be important because the northern energy may end up being the
main driver that digs down and helps spin up the surface low.

 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Mar 2017 was the second worst bust where I live other than Mar 2001, maybe even actually worse. 12”+ predicted, ended up 4” maybe all washed away by the end. Utterly horrendous. Other than that disaster 16-17 was actually a decent winter. 

In my old stomping grounds the biggest bust was Jan 2015. Interestingly, that one was a Euro bust to the GFS.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

In my old stomping grounds the biggest bust was Jan 2015. Interestingly, that one was a Euro bust to the GFS.

Juno.  The Euro and NAM were too far west

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Juno.  The Euro and NAM were too far west

And the bust was a rug pull within 24 hours. Horrendous.

[WeatherGeek2025]