It's coming 1/31-2/1

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc is like 150 miles west 

It’s still a miss except for LI.

[MJO812]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It’s still a miss except for LI.

That run also has multiple lows

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It’s still a miss except for LI.

this is going to hit us hard mark my words

[SACRUS]

 

1/28 12z GGEM Total QPF

 

 

[NJwx85]

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

i think this happens saturday night into sunday 

[NJwx85]

Just now, MJO812 said:

That run also has multiple lows

Yeah, but it makes sense. This vort that swings through creates the first low.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Good sign. But tonight I’d say we need consistent positive trends to start. We all know the negatives-kicker diving SE, 6 different unconsolidated lows, positive tilt, closes off early. One or two of those need to trend in a positive direction at least. 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No, I just showed you the 250mb winds. The trough orientation is wrong.

The Canadian and GFS are not set in stone as any adjustmet in those 250 mb winds or trough alignment can shift the storm just far enough west to impact the immediate NYC metro - it happened before the Boxing Day storm and no reason it can't happen again - have to leave all options on the table IMO - throwing in the towel today is a big risk..

[TJW014]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/28 12z GGEM Total QPF

 

That's still almost a foot for coastal NJ and LI. Ratios will be high. 

[SACRUS]

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1/28 12z Summary Total QPF NYC

 

ICON: -0
GFS:  0.01
GFS Ai AIFS: 0.01
GGEM: 0.2

Updated

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

We need the Forky line drop.

He's still optimistic.

10 minutes ago, Juturna said:

But...I was told this was coming. Why would Rjay betray us like this? 

If I miss by 150 miles from day 6 sue me I guess 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS looks like it will be slightly worse.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

That's still almost a foot for coastal NJ and LI. Ratios will be high. 

The Jury will still be out deliberating till at least tomorrow - all options on the table IMO

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The Canadian and GFS are not set in stone as any adjustmet in those 250 mb winds or trough alignment can shift the storm just far enough west to impact the immediate NYC metro - it happened before the Boxing Day storm and no reason it can't happen again - have to leave all options on the table IMO - throwing in the towel today is a big risk..

I’m not throwing in the towel but I’m being realistic based on what I see, the trends and my experience.

[Juturna]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

He's still optimistic.

If I miss by 150 miles from day 6 sue me I guess 

[nycsnow]

Ukie basically goes due east from the Carolina’s lol

[psv88]

She’s alive! Oh Canada! 

[Rjay]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Ukie basically goes due east from the Carolina’s lol

6-12 for Bermuda

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m not throwing in the towel but I’m being realistic based on what I see, the trends and my experience.

also this is not an all or nothing storm for NYC immediate metro - still can receive advisory or WSW from this - I would lean toward throwing in the towel regarding a MECS or higher though

[psv88]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

also this is not an all or nothing storm for NYC immediate metro - still can receive advisory or WSW from this - I would lean throwing in the towel regarding a MECS or higher though

I mean this could be a major storm for eastern Long Island and SNE

[North and West]

.

[Irish]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sorry rjay its not coming

Oh it's coming!  Don't you dare lose hope!

[hooralph]

The legacy of the Boxing Day storm creates false hope for a miraculous comeback just like the 2004 Sox give fan bases false hope about coming back from 3-0 down and the 2016 Pats from coming back 28-3 in the 4th Quarter. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

This storm 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

Nostalgic "1980s Weather Channel WSW Alert During Local Weather" font.

[SACRUS]

 

UKMET was not worth posting.

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

which one of those numbers ( members) is the OP ?

[SACRUS]

1/28 12z GEFS Total  QPF

Mean qpf

 

 

 

[TJW014]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

Look at all those west members.