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Ridingtime

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About Ridingtime

  • Rank
    I pray for snow
  • Birthday 05/16/1987

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    LLBG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Jerusalem, Israel

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  1. Likely scenario is that the power went out along with his Wifi. I imagine cell towers aren't doing too good either at the moment.
  2. Right now, models are showing a very insane amount of cold in Turkey, across the Black Sea, and those regions of Europe. However, the cold is basically grazing Israel and not going deep enough to give us a seriously good snow storm. The cold essentially gets cut off and then lingers but doesn't go south where I'd want it. However, I'm hoping over the next few days we start to see the block building more in a way where it pushes the cold more south. Regardless, this is a massive Scandinavian block, and one that will definitely alter the weather pattern that we've been having up until now across the hemisphere where the polar jet has been too strong and keeping away the real cold air. I wouldn't be surprised if its effects eventually reach the northeast too.
  3. Hi everyone, Recently many of the models have continuously shown a very extreme blocking high forming in the Arctic region over NE Europe and West Russia. You can see it here in the latest 0z Euro: From my experience tracking weather living in Israel, I have never seen a block this strong and in this location and want some help understanding it's possible implications, especially for winter weather here. It is clear that the models are all having a hard time forecasting what it will do for southern regions of Europe and Israel. Some show an extreme cold outbreak occurring as south as Turkey but then moving west across Europe beneath the block, only to then get pulled back into the ridge, likely thanks to a strong 960mb (!) low also being forecasted off the UK coast. Other solutions have shown a cold air trough digging south enough to give Israel snow thanks to the block. Some solutions show weak troughs that miss Israel all together. In short, there is still a lot of variance, likely because we are still 7 days out, but also because the block itself is so unusual in strength and location. I'd love to hear some points from anyone else. Especially: 1) What has happened before when other blocks like this formed in this region? Usually during the winter we can Scandinavian highs or blocks over the UK but again rarely a block in this region. 2) What is the implication of a block this strong? It literally goes off the charts in most of the model runs 3) Is this block connected to any known indices. I thought it may be connected to the AO but I'm seeing that the AO forecasts aren't really being impacted by this block and keeping the AO mostly positive. 4) Would it be fair to say that a block in this magnitude would send cold air more south than being forecasted, increasing the chances Israel would get this cold? Thanks in advance for your input and Happy Holidays to all!
  4. The Euro needs to be dethroned from its place of superiority and placed on a level equal to that of the GFS. The NAM needs to be chucked entirely. And short range models, such as the RGEM should always be taken seriously. People, mets included it seems, had their incredible love of snow bow down too strongly to the Euro and neglect models that went against their hopes and wishes. All while giving an unreasonable amount of credence to a bipolar model known as the NAM. Consider this storm a wake up call.
  5. To all those following this, I have been providing daily weather updates on a Facebook page www.facebook.com/jerusalemwf. If you'd like to keep knowing about this incredible snowy pattern that is about to unfold in Jerusalem, follow the posts there.
  6. So far so good: pretty incredible to see this continue to be forecasted as another serious snow for Jerusalem - third year in a row, which is really unusual. It all is looking to happen this coming Wednesday, heaviest Wednesday night and ending Thursday morning. Check out the latest Euro 850 temps and 500mb anomaly maps: GFS precip amounts are about .50 inches when the cold truly arrives so half a foot of snow. Not too shabby at all. Also the latest 18z GFS is showing some redevelopment of the storm too adding additional snow possibly Thursday night into Friday. That requires further monitoring. Either way, I'll hope to keep you all up to date and better yet, provide you with pics and videos throughout the event.
  7. I just noticed in my first post above the Euro maps change as the website updates the latest model run. The website that I view the Euro is: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html From now on I'll save the images and then upload them here. Here is latest 12z Euro: The trough is still looking excellent for cold air and snow. I was with jconsor tonight, a meteorologist who lives in Jerusalem and a member here too, and was able to see the better detailed Euro maps with him. One of the interesting trends to note is that the low is trending more cut off and thus keeping the precip around for longer since it is moving out more slowly. The 850's are also staying quite cold after the storm, which would allow for the snow to actually stick around instead of melt quickly like what occurs after most Jerusalem snows. All in all, models are still showing good trends and good snow. More updates to come as we get closer.
  8. Hey guys, Every year since I have moved to Jerusalem from NYC I have started discussions on its winter weather, especially when a possible snow storm seemed imminent. I've been here for 3 years and ironically, each winter there was a snow event, with each one progressively greater than the one before it. Snow in Jerusalem is simply majestic, and I have followed up these threads with lots of pics and videos during the events. Well here we are at my 4th year here and the models for the past couple of days have been really keen on showing solutions for snow in Jerusalem and higher elevation spots throughout Israel. A massive ridge building over western Europe the next couple of days will allow for an intense trough to form east over the western parts of Russia that will surge arctic air down south right into Israel. A storm system approaching Israel this weekend, likely bringing rain (and possible mix of snow), may then intensify right around the onset of this cold air Tues-Wed, bringing a significant amount of snow into Jerusalem. Let's start with the 0Z GFS data plots for Jerusalem: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=lljr Keep in mind that typically for snow, Jerusalem at it's altitude needs to have the 500mb temps at -25C or below. 850mb temps can be around 1-2C to produce snow as long as the 500mb temps are in good shape. So as you can see in those plots above, between hours 144-168 are pretty ripe for snow. At times, 500 mb temps get down to -32C, which is really rare for Jerusalem any time of the winter. Having the 850mb get as low as -3C is certainly helpful too. The main bulk of precipitation is currently forecasted to start at the beginning of this time period and last for 12 hours before tapering off. Here is the 0Z GFS ensembles: They are pretty consistent showing the cold air trough and definitely cold enough air at the 500mb level. Let's look at the latest 0z Euro: This is definitely an incredible solution for snow, as that trough is the most intense/cold I have seen it forecasted yet. Here are 0z Euro ensembles: The cold air here isn't as extreme, however they have been trending colder over the past few days. Being 144-168 hours out, a lot can obviously change. However, there are a couple of reasons to seriously look at this threat: 1) the models have been consistently showing a snow signal like this for the past 2-3 days and 2) The cold air trough orientation brings in the air directly from Russia north to south and keeps it over land, preventing it from moderating warmer had it been situated in a more west to east fashion going over the Mediterranean. 3) To my eye, the models are trending only colder and wetter. Another point to mention is this rain event forecasted for Saturday-Sunday. The Euro has been pretty insistent on keeping the temps too warm for snow. However, the GFS continues to show 500 mb temps at the -25 to -26 C range with 850 temps around 2-3 C. This could potentially allow for a rain/snow mix over the weekend. Since the Euro isn't showing that though, I am doubtful we'll end up seeing that. If you want to be part of this discussion, I'd really appreciate any and all input on what I am posting. I especially would appreciate knowing the data plots of the Euro if you have access to that being that my access to Euro data is limited. And if this pans out, I look forward to sharing the experience with all of you, pics, videos and all. Thanks and Happy New Year!
  9. This thread has been mesmerizing. It's like looking at my paradise, my wildest snow weenie dreams. I must experience something like this in my lifetime.
  10. I am pretty sure there are rumors going around that another big storm is coming some time soon, hence this weather blog post: http://weather-it-is.blogspot.co.il But all signs (models, forecasters, etc) point to a pretty warm and dry next week or so. The next time I am going to expect a chance of snow here will probably be in January.
  11. News to me, where did you see that?
  12. Awesome, thanks Don for this info!
  13. Fascinating info Don. If you get the chance, I would love to hear more of your statistical analysis regarding such indices like the AO, NAO, etc for Israel, particularly with your thoughts on what the winter ahead could hold. It's crazy all together that we are just in the beginning of winter and snow most often occurs in Israel in January and February. The CFS however does seem to be showing below normal precip and above normal temps for those months, so I am less hopeful that we'll snow again this winter. Still, would like to hear your take on that. Also, to everyone else, I updated my iCloud album with some pics from today where you can see a lot of the aftermath throughout the city. Lots of snow is still on the ground, particularly in parks and grassy areas. Just got finished sledding actually! Glad to hear some of you NE folks finally got some nice snow recently too, enjoy it! https://www.icloud.com/photostream/#A6JEsNWnJHwHMl
  14. Hey guys! So the storm is over, the dust is settling - what a trip! While the Friday night event was indeed quite heavy, and intense at times, it definitely was not worse or as accumulative as Thursday night. The temps were also not their greatest during the first half and a lot of the snow fell very wet, not really sticking to things so well. Although, I can say that it had more of a ferocious intense bite. Walking back from synagogue, a thundersnow boomed out the loudest I have ever heard. It was much windier and more blizzard-like. Then after 12am, I do believe the temps got colder, and the snow thus drier. Even though I didn't stay up much of the night to see that, I did wake up from time to time to check on it, and the snow fell very heavily throughout the night. I woke up to around 12-14 inches on the ground Saturday morning. That includes the first batch Thurs morning, melting, the huge second batch Thurs night into Fri morning, then some more melting and compacting, and then what fell Fri night into Sat morning. When you take it all together you then have: 3 inches total Thurs morning 12 inches total Thurs night into Fri morning 7 inches total Fri night into Sat morning Coming out to a 22 inch snow storm total! Pretty incredible for Jerusalem, and particularly early December, standards. The rest of Saturday it stayed cloudy and some melting occurred. However, I'd say now there is still a good 10 inches on grassy surfaces, and 6 or so inches on the streets and sidewalks. What is crazy is that no one has shovels here and the plows are non-existent on neighborhood streets, particularly small ones like mine. So for an example, the whole parking lot here is just snow, and cars are literally stuck, and the same can be said about most of the cars parked on the streets. Another factor is the incredible amount downed trees and branches all over the place. Almost every tree sustained damage it appears from the heavy snow accumulating on leaves that have yet fallen since autumn was not yet completely over here. So many roads are blocked, some parked cars are destroyed, there's a lot of wood everywhere. Essentially, the next couple of days are going to be rough, messy, slushy and inconvenient for a lot of us while we probably will just have to wait for the melting process to take care of things and the city to start cleaning up. With all that being said, this was a storm I'll never forget and something I thought I'd never witness in Jerusalem. I feel very fortunate that the 3 years I have chosen to live here, there was a snow fall each year, and they got progressively more intense each year (3 years in a row with snow is very rare all together too). Being the snow weenie that I am, I am obviously hoping for more snow this winter and in the rest of the years ahead. And I can't help but wonder, is this the pinnacle and the end of my Jerusalem snow experiences just because statistically anything more is practically impossible? But who knows, I thought the same thing after last years snow too, and things don't always have to follow numbers and statistics Oh and global warming! haha /sarcasm Regardless, I am a happy snow loving dude and very glad I was able to share this experience with ya'll. Hope you guys get snow like this where you are. Happy winter everyone!