Welcome to American Weather

Ridingtime

Members
  • Content count

    1,152
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Ridingtime

  • Rank
    I pray for snow
  • Birthday 05/16/1987

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    LLBG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Jerusalem, Israel

Recent Profile Visitors

574 profile views
  1. Intensity forecasts were way off too. Most models showed at least a cat 3 by Tampa and a stronger storm overall. Humbling for forecasters no doubt
  2. Jeez where is that?
  3. Noticing this dry pocket nearing the eye and wondering if it could impact the core/eye soon?
  4. Possibly the healthiest it has looked all day so far
  5. What is the best link to observe this?
  6. I'd be happy being wrong (not the type who roots for landfalling intense canes), but it is hard to ignore the consolidation and trends, not just in the OP models, but ensembles too. When you see a tight cluster of ensembles trend over each run more south, more west, more landfalling, and continue extreme intensity forecasts, why wouldn't you start realistically worrying about this?
  7. I think it is getting safer to say an OTS solution is now much less likely than a major impact somewhere on the East US coast. And if so, this hurricane season may end up being the most memorable since 2005
  8. Just out of curiosity, how in the world were they able to record such detailed data back then about a hurricanes track and intensity without satellites and all of the weather instruments we have today?
  9. Is there any reasonable hope to hang on at this point that it won't get there? And if it does, what is a quick description of what we can expect to take place? (I know it has been discussed a lot already, but there also seems to be a lot of misinformation or hyperbole, and I am looking for a realistic view on what would happen)
  10. I've been thinking this too. Since when has a category 4 hurricane simply stalled and dissipated over one location for this long and is that due to climate change or just an unfortunate set up of steering currents?
  11. Likely scenario is that the power went out along with his Wifi. I imagine cell towers aren't doing too good either at the moment.
  12. Right now, models are showing a very insane amount of cold in Turkey, across the Black Sea, and those regions of Europe. However, the cold is basically grazing Israel and not going deep enough to give us a seriously good snow storm. The cold essentially gets cut off and then lingers but doesn't go south where I'd want it. However, I'm hoping over the next few days we start to see the block building more in a way where it pushes the cold more south. Regardless, this is a massive Scandinavian block, and one that will definitely alter the weather pattern that we've been having up until now across the hemisphere where the polar jet has been too strong and keeping away the real cold air. I wouldn't be surprised if its effects eventually reach the northeast too.
  13. Hi everyone, Recently many of the models have continuously shown a very extreme blocking high forming in the Arctic region over NE Europe and West Russia. You can see it here in the latest 0z Euro: From my experience tracking weather living in Israel, I have never seen a block this strong and in this location and want some help understanding it's possible implications, especially for winter weather here. It is clear that the models are all having a hard time forecasting what it will do for southern regions of Europe and Israel. Some show an extreme cold outbreak occurring as south as Turkey but then moving west across Europe beneath the block, only to then get pulled back into the ridge, likely thanks to a strong 960mb (!) low also being forecasted off the UK coast. Other solutions have shown a cold air trough digging south enough to give Israel snow thanks to the block. Some solutions show weak troughs that miss Israel all together. In short, there is still a lot of variance, likely because we are still 7 days out, but also because the block itself is so unusual in strength and location. I'd love to hear some points from anyone else. Especially: 1) What has happened before when other blocks like this formed in this region? Usually during the winter we can Scandinavian highs or blocks over the UK but again rarely a block in this region. 2) What is the implication of a block this strong? It literally goes off the charts in most of the model runs 3) Is this block connected to any known indices. I thought it may be connected to the AO but I'm seeing that the AO forecasts aren't really being impacted by this block and keeping the AO mostly positive. 4) Would it be fair to say that a block in this magnitude would send cold air more south than being forecasted, increasing the chances Israel would get this cold? Thanks in advance for your input and Happy Holidays to all!
  14. The Euro needs to be dethroned from its place of superiority and placed on a level equal to that of the GFS. The NAM needs to be chucked entirely. And short range models, such as the RGEM should always be taken seriously. People, mets included it seems, had their incredible love of snow bow down too strongly to the Euro and neglect models that went against their hopes and wishes. All while giving an unreasonable amount of credence to a bipolar model known as the NAM. Consider this storm a wake up call.
  15. To all those following this, I have been providing daily weather updates on a Facebook page www.facebook.com/jerusalemwf. If you'd like to keep knowing about this incredible snowy pattern that is about to unfold in Jerusalem, follow the posts there.