It's coming 1/31-2/1

[JustinRP37]

Looking at the history that Don has posted, it seems like the odds are heavily against a massive storm within a week of another major storm. For that reason, I tend to think this one won't directly impact us. However, if we see it trending that way by tomorrow, then I think it could be game on. I just don't get the sense that it is going to happen. If it did, we would need some areas to start moving snow banks around like in other big seasons as there isn't much room for more snow. I would love to see it personally. 

[MANDA]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That kicker is stronger and in a terrible spot. To have any chance it needs be North of the border on Sunday morning.

Not to mention that a closed upper low on the SC coast at 06Z Sunday is heading essentially due east.  Just not a good look in my opinion.

Just not closing off in the right place and trof axis which at that point is neutral is too far east.  Wind max has already rounded the base of the trof. and add the kicker to that and you have an OTS solution as depicted.

If we are going to get anymore than a coastal fringe up here there needs to be rather significant changes in how the 500MB flow evolves over the next several days.  Not saying that is impossible just commenting on the way the EURO has things progged now.

[Winterweatherlover]

I said a few days ago I hate tracking these big storms in Atlantic because the models will almost definitely lose the storm or show it way OTS at some point. Sometimes they come back, sometimes they don't but this isn't like last week where we basically knew consistently we'd get at least some decent snow for days.

 

Of course when these type of storms do hit they are our are biggest bombs but they miss about half as often as they hit.

[SnowGoose69]

This is highly likely to just close off way too early but I would not rule out the chance of a modest snowfall here potentially, I just doubt we are likely to see a monster storm in this area

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

This is highly likely to just close off way too early but I would not rule out the chance of a modest snowfall here potentially, I just doubt we are likely to see a monster storm in this area

Given the amount of snow on the ground I think I might even prefer a moderate snowstorm to whiten the snow vs a blizzard. While a blizzard on top of what we have would give historic amounts on the ground it would also be totally exhausting.

[Winterweatherlover]

8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Looking at the history that Don has posted, it seems like the odds are heavily against a massive storm within a week of another major storm. For that reason, I tend to think this one won't directly impact us. However, if we see it trending that way by tomorrow, then I think it could be game on. I just don't get the sense that it is going to happen. If it did, we would need some areas to start moving snow banks around like in other big seasons as there isn't much room for more snow. I would love to see it personally. 

I'm amazed in 2010 we didnt get any back to backs but I guess not. The MA region I believe did as there were the back to back storms that hit them to our south.

[mikem81]

This looks dead based on the EURO direction last few cycles.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, mikem81 said:

This looks dead based on the EURO direction last few cycles.

It's way too early to say dead and I'm even half on the fence if I'm rooting for this storm lol. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

This looks dead based on the EURO direction last few cycles.

It improved somewhat from 6z. Anyway I wouldn’t write it off especially for coastal areas until Thursday. 

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

This looks dead based on the EURO direction last few cycles.

It ain’t dead, not by a longshot.

would I say the most likely scenario is a massive snowstorm? No.

but I’m not sure how you can look at the upper-levels and say this is dead, especially considering it’s not like we need to fundamentally change the setup for it to work out

[Nibor]

Euro over the last 4 long runs.

[BoulderWX]

Definitely not a 'dead' threat for those on LI or the coast; I wouldn't be giving up hope on the coastal plain -- I don't think it will be monster but even a glancing blow will add to the already impressive totals that are down. 

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Euro over the last 4 long runs.

Look at the first map in that loop, that was the model cycle that gave us the massive hit.  Upper low closing off over eastern KY/TN and the trof was already starting to tilt negative.  Much more the look of a big MA/NE snowstorm.

[North and West]

This looks dead based on the EURO direction last few cycles.

Quick question - and I presume a lot of this is based on emotional states - how come we always think storms trend north and west (great name, btw), but now suddenly this looks like it’ll miss us and the show’s over?

I assume a lot of it has to do with what you nerds deem “atmospheric” and “dynamics” and “wind” and “steering.”

Anyway, I love a good snowstorm, but after digging out the plow-in, I’m fine if it skirts by.


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[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Euro being a total miss- does EPS agree ?

Yes its hideous. Not one ensemble member would bring snow to the area 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go. 

If it clobbers NYC, they will dump it in the East, and Hudson rivers again.

[Stormlover74]

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes its hideous. Not one ensemble member would bring snow to the area 

I've not looked yet but that is surprising and not a good signal.  I would have bet there would have been some at least some ensemble members with a decent hit.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I've not looked yet but that is surprising and not a good signal.  I would have bet there would have been some at least some ensemble members with a decent hit.

I posted it above

[jdj5211]

This just has the feels of a miss….and partially because we can’t get this lucky, it just doesn’t happen.


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[Stormlover74]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

This just has the feels of a miss….and partially because we can’t get this lucky, it just doesn’t happen.


.

But sometimes when it wants to snow it does. With that said we've had misses before only to get hit a week later

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Euro being a total miss- does EPS agree ?

Go check and let us know

[Jt17]

Ukie and Euro pretty brutal runs, but GFS, GFS AI and Canadian were either slightly better or the same compared to 6z. Maybe just a weird one of run from our European friends


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[mikem81]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Ukie and Euro pretty brutal runs, but GFS, GFS AI and Canadian were either slightly better or the same compared to 6z. Maybe just a weird one of run from our European friends


.

Not sure we’ve ever seem a good storm when Euro is complete whiff 100 hours out 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Not sure we’ve ever seem a good storm when Euro is complete whiff 100 hours out 

We have. Every model was a whiff for boxing day 72 hours out

[mgerb]

Something to consider from the MA thread, which makes sense. In other words, somewhat small changes upstream can really make a difference (in either way, of course). 

[psv88]

Too early to write this one off...give it until Thursday. If the EPS dont show any hits, we move on 

[Snowlover11]

Yikes.

[mikem81]

5 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Something to consider from the MA thread, which makes sense. In other words, somewhat small changes upstream can really make a difference (in either way, of course). 

Not sure exactly what to make of this, but tomorrow is really last day for material changes from OTS to coastal. Its not going from nothing to storm in last 72 hours. Boxing Day was a long time ago and im hoping the models have improved since then

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Not sure we’ve ever seem a good storm when Euro is complete whiff 100 hours out 

Generally no, but in cases like this where the setup is semi complicated with a ton going on we've seen it happen.