It's coming 1/31-2/1

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its January. Spring can wait until March. 

April

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Aigfs is nice hit for LI. 4 straight runs of correcting  nw

[Roger Smith]

My gut feeling is that if you drive that much arctic air into the eastern Gulf, there will be a more vigorous northward return flow up the east coast. A storm that gets trapped and shunted east like the GFS is trying to depict would likely be less dynamic. Such intrusions of cold air are associated with superstorms like Mar 1993 and the Blizzard of Feb 1899. So the models with more robust northward tracks are probably handling this better.

[nycsnow]

It’s still right there, but would like to start seeing some hits by tomorrow 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

[EasternLI]

Zero complaints on the 6z GEFS. Inching closer.

[EasternLI]

[EasternLI]

[guinness77]

This is guaranteed to get me weenied but I want to see a storm as bad as most of you but can a sub-980mb please not verify because that would be insane for this time of year and be a huge problem. 

[Yanksfan]

Wow big jump west by the 6z GEFS. The mean shows a nice hit for a lot of the area.

[nycsnow]

Ensembles look good on the gfs

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Wow big jump west by the 6z GEFS. The mean shows a nice hit for a lot of the area.

Question is was the GFS suite an overcorrection? It was the furthest off shore for days. The GFS is notorious for being an extreme south/east outlier, then it overcorrects for a few runs, then finally joins consensus after that. Horrific model

[Roger Smith]

They are real and they are spectacular. 

[nycsnow]

6z euro ai identical to 0z

[North and West]

I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing.

Leaks are more worrisome, IMO. But yes, the piles on the streets are not great.




.

[Big Jims Videos]

Bringing flashbacks to one of my favorite storms to track, the January 2018 "fish bomb" that gave areas east of the garden state parkway 2 feet. 

 

 

[ILoveWinter]

Tough to get consensus 5 days out but I'd like to see an ensemble mean hit on at least one of the globals by end of day

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Tough to get consensus 5 days out but I'd like to see an ensemble mean hit on at least one of the globals by end of day

Gefs were trending there icon ensemble trended better as well

[jconsor]

1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

This is guaranteed to get me weenied but I want to see a storm as bad as most of you but can a sub-980mb please not verify because that would be insane for this time of year and be a huge problem. 

I hear ya. Especially given the perigee on Thu and full moon on Sat (thus astronomically high tides), a slow moving, intense coastal storm could cause serious coastal flooding and beach erosion for NJ and LI.

[jdj5211]

Anyone have the 6z Euro?


.

[NJwx85]

7 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

Not to be an ass, but your roof must be pretty unstable.  This is pure fluff for the time being.

Do you think it’s going to be pure fluff after 6 days of melting in the sun and then refreezing? I have like 18” on my roof. Another 2 feet on top of that wouldn’t be great. And it’s too high for one of those scrapers.

[jconsor]

Tomer notes high-end potential here: https://x.com/burgwx/status/2016008474656649645

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Its January. Spring can wait until May. 

Spring starts at the end of March and we could use an early Spring after a winter like this. Bitter cold has been relentless.

[NJwx85]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

What? Your roof should be able to hold at least 3-4 feet of snow. You’ll be fine 

I might be over 4 feet if there’s a direct hit here depending on how much melts this week.

[SnoSki14]

I still think it's coming. I don't buy 3' down into the Carolinas 

[jm1220]

I guess verbatim on these op runs the low is occluding very early and there’s the kicker over MN/IA but the ensembles signal is what we’re still looking for at this lead. By Thursday maybe I’d pay more attention to the op runs. Still plenty of time here to reel it in. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Wow big jump west by the 6z GEFS. The mean shows a nice hit for a lot of the area.

For an illustration:

0z:

6z:

[Jersey_Snowhole]

6z euro stuck at hour 57 forever 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I still think it's coming. I don't buy 3' down into the Carolinas 

You want this to close off near the Delmarva then. It’s almost weakening by the time it reaches us because it closes off so far South and begins to occlude and fill.

[jm1220]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

6z euro stuck at hour 57 forever 

Still calculating all the snow that falls in NYC obviously.