February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Terpeast]

41 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Book your tee times, plant those spring bulbs, get the grill ready...

 

Phil says nasofast...

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, high risk said:

Saturday looks brutal, with temps in the mid to upper teens and sustained winds in the 20-30mph with higher gusts.

Good

[snowfan]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Phil says nasofast...

So we have a 60% chance of an early spring based on that rodents historical success rate.

[GreyHat]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Phil says nasofast...

Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck.

I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40

 

[snowfan]

14 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck.

I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40

 

Youre not going to find many in this sub that prefer rain right now. Its winter and this is a sick bunch.

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck.

I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40.

It can rain 11.5 months out of the year. Give us snow bro.

[adelphi_sky]

At least we can imagine we keep getting snow since the snow from the last storm is still on the ground.   I don't know. I'm grasping at any comfort right now. 

[Terpeast]

Both GEFS and EPS have a follow up wave on the 15th after a cutter, with a cold enough airmass for us. I'll be watching that one.

[Heisy]

All 3 Ensembles depict a chance for a winter storm mid month. That has looked like the most favorable window for awhile now. The difference compared to now is enough of a pattern change to inhibit significantly below avg cold to make it into our area, so as it looks currently, marginal cold would have to do it along with a favorable storm track and dynamics. That's all stuff that cant be resolved this far out.

13-14th is certainly the next legit chance. Airmass issues as the 50/50 is cut off from the flow and we have that ride bridge effect. Ensembles are in good agreement for that ridge Feb 10-11. However, we can have it work out if energy from the trough out west is able to come out in pieces that way we get at least one or two fronts to knock down the ridge. We don’t want it coming East as one big shortwave.

6z AiGFS showed an example of this. It sent a wave across in the 10-11th range which knocked down the ridge. It ended up being just too warm for us, but close enough.

We’ll see how it evolves

[Diesel BrokeHer]

12 hours ago, snowfan said:

Where is RIC?? It's freezing here too. Jumped right over us. I feel left out. (though maybe we hit 33/34 yesterday? Everything is still covered in hard, solid blocks of ice, so it's certainly not been far over the mark)

[frd]

The - AO on the rise.  Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

The - AO on the rise.  Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far. 

 

 

Strat warming is on the atlantic side, so that should knock the AO back down. Can already see hints of it doing that in the dashed mean line starting to turn downwards right at the end. 

[GreyHat]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Both GEFS and EPS have a follow up wave on the 15th after a cutter, with a cold enough airmass for us. I'll be watching that one.

I noticed how the warmth on the Euro IA, GFS AI, GFS, EPS, EPSAI through Feb 17 18z.  It will be interesting on how far the cold moves south. At the end of the 00z EPS run, it shows most of PA down to the 20s,

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Strat warming is on the atlantic side, so that should knock the AO back down. Can already see hints of it doing that in the dashed mean line starting to turn downwards right at the end. 

There are some similarities to 2018 only in this case the TPV was weaker to begin with and the warming is happening about a week earlier.  Obviously we will need luck to go our way...but if we got a similar pattern to March 2018 and got it to set in 7-10 days earlier AND with a colder N American profile to start... I would roll the dice with that.  

[87storms]

I’m sitting pretty in the snowfall contest…need just one more moderate event, so I’m all in. With that said, I’m totally ok with the snowcrete portion of last storm melting first. You literally have to stomp to walk on it, which sort of takes the hiking part out of the game.

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some similarities to 2018 only in this case the TPV was weaker to begin with and the warming is happening about a week earlier.  Obviously we will need luck to go our way...but if we got a similar pattern to March 2018 and got it to set in 7-10 days earlier AND with a colder N American profile to start... I would roll the dice with that.  

Since I moved back to the area, we've gotten zilch in March... so the WDI is off the charts. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Since I moved back to the area, we've gotten zilch in March... so the WDI is off the charts. 

With a fading nina I feel like this would be a better chance than we've had in awhile...but still, snow in March and all it's messyness, lol

[JB Fins]

1 hour ago, Diesel BrokeHer said:

Where is RIC?? It's freezing here too. Jumped right over us. I feel left out. (though maybe we hit 33/34 yesterday? Everything is still covered in hard, solid blocks of ice, so it's certainly not been far over the mark)

Imagine ours would be available from Wakefield.  Not an intentional slight, just based on weather office coverage.

[Amped]

Well, so much for winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Well, so much for winter.

Man that's just one panel it doesn't look to stay that way--hush, lol Now as far as getting something that weekend I don't know...

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Well, so much for winter.

It’s pretty obvious we punt the next few weeks. Now we just have to hope things reset for late February or early March. If not- this winter was decent; for a Nina. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

Well, so much for winter.

So much here…We almost get a snowstorm 48 hours after this. On aigfs we do. And it’s the long range gfs. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So much here…We almost get a snowstorm 48 hours after this. On aigfs we do. And it’s the long range gfs. 

Yes more chances for sure for winter weather/storms. Every time people talk about "winter is over" it doesn't end up being true. Well most times anyway. The same with "this will be the greatest three week pattern ever". and we get days in the 60s 10 days in.

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man that's just one panel it doesn't look to stay that way--hush, lol Now as far as getting something that weekend I don't know...

Yeah, isn't it only supposed to be there for about 3 days?

[LeesburgWx]

I’m seeing some puddles in the streets today. Is winter over?

[Ji]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So much here…We almost get a snowstorm 48 hours after this. On aigfs we do. And it’s the long range gfs. 

it was a lazy look at one panel post---there is still a big -NAO

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

it was a lazy look at one panel post---there is still a big -NAO

It's true that we will lose the deep constant cold and enter a more variable period...but so long as we have blocking in February or March there is the threat of a snowstorm.  

[NorthArlington101]

Too late to trend this one north too, huh

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Too late to trend this one north too, huh

Eh it’s what we hoped the midweek thing could be before its energy got split. It happens