Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said:

If the GFS holds tonight, I won't worry about the NAM until this time tomorrow.  Tomer on Twitter thinks its in the process of folding. But if it doesn't fold tonight, and instead decides to fold tomorrow, etc, or never does,  it will be a pretty glaring and major error for the model and raise real questions about its relevancy going forward. 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014470490593886472?s=20

It will fold eventually 

[SACRUS]

[MANDA]

Just based off the 00Z NAM for what it may or may not be worth I'm good with my 6-10" early call.  We'll see how it plays out.

[Prue11]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yes because that’s the likeliest outcome. The latest NWS blend of models has 12 for DC Baltimore and more in Philly. Has 18” for NYC, 24” for Boston. Idk what the national weather service is thinking. This is how they lose credibility. At some point it’s better to save face and just admit that this is a 6-10”. This is why people struggle to believe them. They had NYC at 8” on 12/26, we got 4.” Sometimes their bullish calls can be chalked up to model error like 12/26. But this? This is different. Borderline negligence 

Where do you see NWS forecasting 18 for NYC ? It’s been 6-10 with a possibility of more than 12 since earlier today when the watch was issued 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think it's ok to accept that it can both sleet and still be a significant snowstorm, both can be true.

I agree. But I don't think anyone said it's not going to be a significant snowstorm though.  

[Rjay]

Just now, Prue11 said:

Where is NWS forecasting 18? It’s been 6-10 with a possibility of more than 12 since earlier today when the watch was issued 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

the only thing that i'll be looking for tonight is see if the GFS changes, and i'm hoping the best model Euro AI goes a bit south from earlier runs! I'll go to sleep happy!

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I agree. But I don't think anyone said it's not going to be a significant snowstorm though.  

Definitely gonna sleet just a matter of how hard it dumps for those first 8 hrs

[SACRUS]

[Prue11]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

If you look at their national blend of models (which they usually follow when making snowfall), it has NYC at 18. And the preliminary map they posted earlier had NYC at 14

NYC could see 14. Do I think it happens? No. I think 6-12” is a good for everywhere right now. The usual areas in suffolk county have a way better chance by history itself. 

[SACRUS]

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SACRUS said:

The sleet line sorta races and then slows, a 30 mile south shift in the upper levels would do wonders.

[winterwarlock]

ouch

[SACRUS]

 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

12 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yes because that’s the likeliest outcome. The latest NWS blend of models has 12 for DC Baltimore and more in Philly. Has 18” for NYC, 24” for Boston. Idk what the national weather service is thinking. This is how they lose credibility. At some point it’s better to save face and just admit that this is a 6-10”. This is why people struggle to believe them. They had NYC at 8” on 12/26, we got 4.” Sometimes their bullish calls can be chalked up to model error like 12/26. But this? This is different. Borderline negligence 

The vast majority of the public really doesn't care if a map they put out says 14 inches when it may winds up being 10. They get their weather reports from the news or online. Most people only want to know if they are going to work/school, what time it starts, and if they need to go food shopping. That's it. I'd venture to say it's more important for the public to know 0 inches to 6 inches than 10 or 14. What exact harm is happening to the public if they say 8 and it winds up being 4?

Unlike some people, the pros don't change their forecast model run to model run when a slightly quicker transfer can lead to 14 inches instead of 8 inches. 

[Nibor]

Someone in our subforum is gonna get 4 inches of sleet

[TriPol]

RDPS, the Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System, is often less reliable for mid-level temperature evolution, especially 850 hPa warming events, compared to some peer models. RDPS tends to struggle with warm air advection aloft, particularly when the warming depends on subtle synoptic timing or shallow inversions. It has a known bias toward under-amplifying mid-level ridges and mixing warm layers too aggressively, which can delay or mute warming signals. That shows up most clearly in marginal setups like rain versus snow lines or freezing rain transitions.

[winterwarlock]

Just now, Nibor said:

Someone in our subforum is gonna get 4 inches of sleet

raises hand

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

No way this is a coastal hugger. I don't buy that for a second.

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 00z RGEM Total QPF storm

 

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

[Prue11]

I can’t believe we’re talking about sleet with temps in teens and low 20s at the start of this storm. It’s happened before and I’m sure we’ll see a period of sleet at some point hopefully after a huge thump 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Someone in our subforum is gonna get 4 inches of sleet

Probably. In addition to the ZR heavy ice zone, just north will be the sleet bomb. 

[TriPol]

Just now, Prue11 said:

I can’t believe we’re talking about sleet with temps in teens and low 20s at the start of this storm. It’s happened before and I’m sure we’ll see a period of sleet at some point hopefully after a huge thump 

No. I don't think the immediate NYC Metro area sees any sleet.

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It will fold eventually 

Yep. Very unlikely that these short range models are going to be wrong about the mid level warming. It will probably look a little worse than what they're showing tonight as it gets closer. At least we know we'll get a front end dump before the sleet. Even if it's just 5 or 6 inches of snow and then a couple inches of sleet for our area, that's still a very nice winter storm that I'd be happy about. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Prue11 said:

I can’t believe we’re talking about sleet with temps in teens and low 20s at the start of this storm. It’s happened before and I’m sure we’ll see a period of sleet at some point hopefully after a huge thump 

Surface temps have nothing to do with sleet. 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem really didn't change much accumulation wise

[SACRUS]

27 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

00z Total QPF / Snow / Sleet
NYC

SREF:  1.3 /  (8.4)
NAM: 1.3 / (8.4)
RGEM: 1.4 / (8.6)
 

 

 

Updated 00z summary suite

[Snowlover11]

Yikes. Toaster bath to start off 0z

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The sleet line sorta races and then slows, a 30 mile south shift in the upper levels would do wonders.

Yeah.  Verbatim it just about makes it to my location and stops.