Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/25 - 1/26

[BoulderWX]

8 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

It’s a weather board, it’s exactly what we are discussing possibilities. SMH 

Ha was just talking about the distinction between when I said “significant” and he said “major”. That’s all. Obviously we’re all on here to track and discuss possibilities. 

[SACRUS]

 

06Z  Total QPF (NYC)  

 

GFS: 0.4 - 0.5
Euro AI AIFS:  0.9 - 1.1
Euro: through 144 looked more or less in line with the 1/20 00Z
GEFS: 0.6 

 

[SACRUS]

 

GFS Total QPF:

 

Euro AI AIFS:

[The 4 Seasons]

21 minutes ago, jerseyshorewxguy said:

there's literally nothing worse in this forum than reading model play-by-play without maps from non-mets .


.

What in gods name was that thing you just quoted, i thought i was in the matrix for a second. 

[Big Jims Videos]

27 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Why is anyone talking about accumulation right now when we know that doesn’t get settled until real time. 
 

as of now it looks like another chance for some snow this weekend; and if all goes right, a significant storm. enjoy the tracking. 

Its certainly worth talking about if we're looking at nuisance, plowable, major, or crippling impacts at this point because weekend plans should be on alert at this time with so much agreement. Actual specific amounts can wait but I like what Mount Holly put out this morning. 

[TJW014]

23 minutes ago, jerseyshorewxguy said:

there's literally nothing worse in this forum than reading model play-by-play without maps from non-mets .


.

I'd love to show maps. File size won't allow me to do so. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

the euro ai depiction is crazy, it shows snowing for 40 hours straight!

[WeatherGeek2025]

23 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I'd love to show maps. File size won't allow me to do so. 

you gotta delete your old pictures you posted here and cut your picture make it smaller

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. 

1N Smithtown 17.0"

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe a 2 part system? Euro focused on the trailing wave. 

Gfs

two things to never depend on in New York City:

 

A two part system

 

Trailing edge snow

 

If you’re looking for that, you’re in a bad spot.

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I'd love to show maps. File size won't allow me to do so. 

Download and then upload to https://imgur.com/
Then direct link them here.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

two things to never depend on in New York City:

 

A two part system

 

Trailing edge snow

 

If you’re looking for that, you’re in a bad spot.

Agree-you want it wrapped up into one system.    Back edge snows rarely if ever work out as well

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree-you want it wrapped up into one system.    Back edge snows rarely if ever work out as well

They are rare but do happen.  PDII in 2003 was an overruning event to a coastal. 

FWIW TWC stated this morning that up to Boston could get heavy snow. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

two things to never depend on in New York City:

 

A two part system

 

Trailing edge snow

 

If you’re looking for that, you’re in a bad spot.

cmc was kinda showing that last night. Wish it was Friday already showing this 

[WeatherGeek2025]

AIGFS shows a complete miss!

[weathermedic]

33 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Its certainly worth talking about if we're looking at nuisance, plowable, major, or crippling impacts at this point because weekend plans should be on alert at this time with so much agreement. Actual specific amounts can wait but I like what Mount Holly put out this morning. 

Here is the Mt Holly AFD from this morning:

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is an increasing potential for the area to be
affected by an impactful winter storm late Saturday through Sunday,
however quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast details still
remains.

Signals in the upper level pattern by late week and the weekend
becomes quite active between the northern and southern stream jets.
The key elements embedded in these features are currently located
over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, so it`ll likely take at least
a couple more days for guidance to have a good handle on this
system. However, almost all available guidance depicts an area of
low pressure developing near Texas Friday before tracking eastward
along the Gulf coast into Saturday. Beyond Saturday there still
remains forecast uncertainty regarding the details of how this
system will play out for the east coast. However, at this time most
forecast guidance tracks the low north and east towards the North
Carolina coast and then off to the north and east from here by the
Sunday into Monday time frame. This track puts the mid Atlantic
region on the northern side of the system with the main question
then becoming just how close to us does the low track. There will be
a very strong and broad arctic high to our north and some of our
prior guidance had suggested this may be strong enough to
suppress the system just south of the area. But over the past
12 to 24 hours there`s been a general trend northward in
guidance suggesting the precipitation shield will make it into
our area. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM now show a
60-70% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 40-60% chance of 6+
inches of snow for areas roughly along and south of the I-95
corridor with decreasing probabilities farther north. These
probabilities are higher than with the prior forecast cycle. So
while this system still is about 5 days out, the signal for a
winter storm to impact at least parts of the area is higher than
usual. The timing of this would be as early as very late day
Saturday continuing through Sunday and potentially even
lingering into Monday depending on the system`s speed. We will
stress though that even with this trend in the guidance, most
east coast snowstorms typically drop their heaviest snows in
swaths 50 to 100 miles wide or less. And considering that the
pieces of energy that will drive this storm are still thousands
of miles away, that means it`s much too early to have much
confidence on how much snow will fall at any given location.
Users should keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming
days.

[North and West]

Pants tent material right there. Good God 

.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree-you want it wrapped up into one system.    Back edge snows rarely if ever work out as well

Its not back edge snows. Its a overrunning events to a coastal.

[mob1]

The Euro at 06Z looks nice with the low moving north juuuuuust offshore. Would likely be a solid hit if extrapolated past hour 144. 

[Nibor]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

AIGFS shows a complete miss!

No phase to slow things down and amplify so it slips east.

[Brian5671]

You want the GFS and its products showing a miss south at this stage.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Toss AI GFS because I don’t like the outcome.  

[rclab]

17 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

Now ‘not wanting to be in the bullseye’ six days out finally makes sense to me. Stay calm, as always …..

[donsutherland1]

Although the potential storm is 4-5 days out from beginning to affect parts of the East Coast, many of us have seen this proverbial movie before. Arctic high pressure and strong confluence were expected to crush the storm to the South, yet as the event drew closer, the high and the confluence were somewhat weaker than previously modeled. It's too soon to focus on specific solutions, but the potential for snow remains very much on the table for Sunday in the New York City area.

While we wait for the 12z cycle to weigh in, here are some tidbits from past storms.

Storm 1:

THE END OF WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER.  A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADING
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY HOW THIS STORM MIGHT EFFECT THE TRI-STATE.  STAY TUNED...

Storm 2:

LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 
EVENT. STRONG HIGH WITH CLASSIC DAMMING LOOKS TO WIN OUT. HEAVY SNOW 
A BETTER BET ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC. 

Storm 3:

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SOUTHERN STREAM SYS PASSING TO
THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, AS MODELS ARE LIKELY SUPPRESSING IT
TOO FAR SOUTH VIA TOO STRONG OF A POLAR JET/MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER TO NOVA SCOTIA, TO THE REAR OF A
50/50 CLOSED LOW. DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS IS DRY AND 00Z ECMWF
GIVES ONLY A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE A LITTLE LESS SUPPRESSED... 

If anyone wants the answers to which storms these are, storm 1 is the Blizzard of 1996 (NWS New York, January 5, 1996 3:53 am). Storm 2 is PD2 in 2003 (NWS New York, February 14, 2003 9:15 pm). Storm 3 is the potential January 24-26, 2026 storm (NWS New York, January 19, 2026 7:11 pm).

This does not guarantee a major event for the New York City area. But that scenario cannot be ruled out at this lead time. For further trivia, the last storm to bring 6" or more snow to Baltimore, New York City, Norfolk, Philadelphia, Raleigh, Richmond, and Washington, DC was the February 1979 (PD1) blizzard. So, at least some of the guidance is hinting at a rare solution.

As the NWS advised ahead of the 1996 blizzard, stay tuned.

 

[Jt17]

Although the potential storm is 4-5 days out from beginning to affect parts of the East Coast, many of us have seen this proverbial movie before. Arctic high pressure and strong confluence were expected to crush the storm to the South, yet as the event drew closer, the high and the confluence were somewhat weaker than previously modeled. It's too soon to focus on specific solutions, but the potential for snow remains very much on the table for Sunday in the New York City area.
While we wait for the 12z cycle to weigh in, here are some tidbits from past storms.
Storm 1:
THE END OF WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER.  A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADING
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY HOW THIS STORM MIGHT EFFECT THE TRI-STATE.  STAY TUNED...
Storm 2:
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 
EVENT. STRONG HIGH WITH CLASSIC DAMMING LOOKS TO WIN OUT. HEAVY SNOW 
A BETTER BET ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC. 
Storm 3:
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SOUTHERN STREAM SYS PASSING TO
THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, AS MODELS ARE LIKELY SUPPRESSING IT
TOO FAR SOUTH VIA TOO STRONG OF A POLAR JET/MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER TO NOVA SCOTIA, TO THE REAR OF A
50/50 CLOSED LOW. DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS IS DRY AND 00Z ECMWF
GIVES ONLY A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE A LITTLE LESS SUPPRESSED... 
If anyone wants the answers to which storms these are, storm 1 is the Blizzard of 1996 (NWS New York, January 5, 1996 3:53 am). Storm 2 is PD2 in 2003 (NWS New York, February 14, 2003 9:15 pm). Storm 3 is the potential January 24-26, 2026 storm (NWS New York, January 19, 2026 7:11 pm).
This does not guarantee a major event for the New York City area. But that scenario cannot be ruled out at this lead time. For further trivia, the last storm to bring 6" or more snow to Baltimore, New York City, Norfolk, Philadelphia, Raleigh, Richmond, and Washington, DC was the February 1979 (PD1) blizzard. So, at least some of the guidance is hinting at a rare solution.
As the NWS advised ahead of the 1996 blizzard, stay tuned.
 

Fun post, thank you!


.

[Brian5671]

Out of our area-but the 0z Euro has close to 3 inches of ZR in the south!

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

two things to never depend on in New York City:

 

A two part system

 

Trailing edge snow

 

If you’re looking for that, you’re in a bad spot.

PDII was a two part system but, yes, it's rare to get a two part wallop at the coast especially 

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Out of our area-but the 0z Euro has close to 3 inches of ZR in the south!

if this verified i can't fathom the level of disaster this would cause

 

 

for anyone who cares (no one) i changed my flight to saturday. while you are all *potentially* seeing our first major storm in a long time, i will be in the warm embrace of southern californias never ending sunshine. will be watching the board to see how we make out.

 

lets hope we get some snow and more comes in feb!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Out of our area-but the 0z Euro has close to 3 inches of ZR in the south!

A lot of family in north Georgia Alpharetta area. As depicted this would be catastrophic. Doubt it reaches these levels but...

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A lot of family in north Georgia Alpharetta area. As depicted this would be catastrophic. Doubt it reaches these levels but...

Ice is often overdone on these models...heavy ZR doesn't accrete well-just runs off.