January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

That doesn't look like a WxRisk map. There are no intersecting lines

They posted it on there site lol

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

That doesn't look like a WxRisk map. There are no intersecting lines

See it is from there site dude I'm not gonna post  false maps

[T. August]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

New map

Then the NAMs shit the bed

[rjvanals]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It isn’t really the surface temps that are the problem on the NAM. 33-35 is ok at night with decent rates. But there’s a really annoying warm nose at 950mb.

It's super frustrating that we're going to be well below freezing at 850mb in the dead of night during our coldest time of year and still manage to rain. Tomorrow will register as a well below normal day with precip and we still can't really score. 

[Deep Creek]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

See it is from there site dude I'm not gonna post  false maps

It was a joke on DT’s frequently contradictory maps that have lines going every which direction. His precip onset time maps are also difficult to read.

[high risk]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's not far off the deck at all. Higher elevations in Howard, Carroll and Baltimore counties should be able to overcome it...hopefully. 

     Northern Maryland won't get as warm in the low levels, so verbatim from the 18Z NAM, they're ok for snow.   But areas south of I-70 have ugly soundings:

 

       

That's rain for sure, and it occurs at a time when precip rates are really good.     The 18Z HRRR looks the same.    We have to hope that this is incorrect, and given the lack of run-to-run consistency, that isn't necessarily just wishful thinking.

 

 

[RevWarReenactor]

11 minutes ago, T. August said:

Then the NAMs shit the bed

Normally I wouldn’t care what it has to say but it nailed precip types on the Dec 26th storm. 

[MillvilleWx]

The models seem to be shifting to the HRRR and RRFS idea from this morning and they aren’t wavering, so it looks like that might be an issue for those of us in the lower elevations. Not feeling as good about the eastern shore anymore, especially the Lower Eastern shore. 

[87storms]

I need more of this afternoon’s weather. Actually a premium day all around…start of the weekend, it snowed this morning, made progress on my paper (taking a grad class), and just played basketball. Oh and NFL playoffs soon.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The models seem to be shifting to the HRRR and RRFS idea from this morning and they aren’t wavering, so it looks like that might be an issue for those of us in the lower elevations. Not feeling as good about the eastern shore anymore, especially the Lower Eastern shore. 

Kinda like where I stand in Frederick for some frozen tomorrow, though looks like lightweight stuff. Hoping we can tap into a legitimate snowstorm soon.

[Ellinwood]

Final map for Sunday... only notable change was to drag the 1-2" contour southward into the Raleigh metro region. Richmond northward is essentially the same as the initial forecast with just a few very minor adjustments.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ellinwood said:

Final map for Sunday... only notable change was to drag the 1-2" contour southward into the Raleigh metro region. Richmond northward is essentially the same as the initial forecast with just a few very minor adjustments.

Agree with this map, but a little worried about temps just above the sfc. Prob forecasts give mby 40% chance of reaching 1”

[T. August]

After seeing the NAMs and RGEM I’m not feeling too good about it. I guess it could be a blip, who knows.

[rjvanals]

Don’t look at the GFS

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Don’t look at the GFS

Ever? Probably best 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Don’t look at the GFS

Good thing is, its a weak little event for our region, so we talking something like a range of a coating to a half inch to maybe 2" someplace. Bigger fish to fry going forward.. hopefully. The one red flag is the Euro was pretty persistently never really into this one. Most of the recent runs it had an inch or so max, and before that not much of anything. GFS is the worst again lol. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 airports had measurable snow today

How in the hell did that happen? I ended up with some crunchballs on bare spots and some wet pavement. I don’t recall there ever being a time that DCA measured something and I didn’t!

[87storms]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Good thing is, it’s a weak little event for our region, so we talking something like a range of a coating to a half inch to maybe 2" someplace. Bigger fish to fry going forward.. hopefully. The one red flag is the Euro was pretty persistently never really into this one. Most of the recent runs it had an inch or so max, and before that not much of anything. GFS is the worst again lol. 

The Euro has owned this event. Barely budged the last few days. Tbd on the final outcome, but it showed why it’s the king…it’s just more consistent than the others, period.

[Scraff]

Just now, mattie g said:

How in the hell did that happen? I ended up with some crunchballs on bare spots and some wet pavement. I don’t recall there ever being a time that DCA measured something and I didn’t!

Desperation weenie move for the person who did the measurements. Was probably JI. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Good thing is, its a weak little event for our region, so we talking something like a range of a coating to a half inch to maybe 2" someplace. Bigger fish to fry going forward.. hopefully. The one red flag is the Euro was pretty persistently never really into this one. Most of the recent runs it had an inch or so max, and before that not much of anything. GFS is the worst again lol. 

Euro wasn't into this morning either and it overperformed the Euro forecast x5 in some places like Mappyland and other northern MD locations and x2 imby.

The most/more conservative runs of the mesos prevailed over the globals this morning imho.

I'll roll with the same winners tomorrow since it's a similar looking system in some ways.

[RevWarReenactor]

The models are absolutely horrible with tomorrow’s event it’s just been atrocious

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The models are absolutely horrible

Fixed it for you

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro wasn't into this morning either and it overperformed the Euro forecast x5 in some places like Mappyland and other northern MD locations and x2 imby.

The most/more conservative runs of the mesos prevailed over the globals this morning imho.

I'll roll with the same winners tomorrow since it's a similar looking system in some ways.

Go back and look at 0z and 6z runs for the Euro and the 3km NAM and try to make a case that one was better than the other lol. They basically flip flopped.. but we are talking an inch of snow +- a couple tenths. It's splitting hairs lol.