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9th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest


RodneyS
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It's time for the 9th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest!  :) Those who participated last year will doubtless recall the excitement of that contest in which measurable snow managed to fall at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), and Dulles International (IAD) on exactly one day -- February 1st. And even that did not happen at Richmond International Airport (RIC), where the snow gods pitched a shutout. However, we all know things will be different this time around because it is not a La Nina, but rather an El Nino, snow season.  And an El Nino has never produced at DCA less snow than . . . one-tenth of an inch.:o (1972-73 and 1997-98).  Then again, the El Nino winter of 2009-10 set the all-time DC snow record of 56.1 inches. :arrowhead: So, that narrow range should assist with your pick.;)

Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch for the four major Mid-Atlantic airports: BWI, DCA, IAD, and RIC.  Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April.

For the tiebreaker, please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one -- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. 

The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast:

BWI: 0.0"

DCA: 0.0"

IAD: 0.0"

RIC: 10.0"

And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be:

BWI: 2.5"

DCA: 2.5"

IAD: 2.5"

RIC: 2.5"

Your absolute value departures would be:

BWI: 2.5

DCA: 2.5

IAD: 2.5

RIC: 7.5

Thus, your total departure would be 15.0.

Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Friday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline.  However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2015-16: @Shadowzone

2016-17: @Stormpc

2017-18: @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc

2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide

2020-21: @NorthArlington101

2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold

2022-23: @LittleVillageWx

Good luck everyone!

 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is the kinda ballpark I’m leaning toward 

I'm thinking a little higher than normal, if only because of the greater chance of a nice event or two given all the factors at play. I'd love to be wrong and have multiple shots during a pretty cold Nino winter, but I can't let myself go there.

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BWI: 29.5
DCA: 21.5
IAD:34.5
RIC:15.5

Tiebreaker SBY: 11.5

MBY KOKV: 44.5

I am really feeling good about this winter. Storms have been wanting to ride the coast all fall. We are gonna have our chances. And if we are gonna get a big storm this is the year IMO. Clearly the background state Below 40n has changed a lot the past decade. And it may be we need bombs to get snowstorms in the future. This year mother nature is going to be dropping bombs. 

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On 11/1/2023 at 10:00 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

BWI:  26.0
DCA: 17.0
IAD: 28.0
RIC: 11.0

Tiebreaker SBY: 30.0 (because I want @Lowershoresadness to post all winter)

edit: I also want it known that I made my picks before seeing @Terpeast’s winter forecast. :maprain:

the Wizards will win an NBA ring before I ever hit 30 inches

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