RIC Airport

Of course 18Z GEFS took it away, but I looked at the charts for the 12z run and p25 dropped the following totals in VA, MD and NC. Virginia Wallops Island: 50" West Point: 43" Williamsburg: 40" Newport News: 40" Hampton: 40" Tappahanock: 39" Accomack: 35" Wakefield: 32" Petersburg: 30" Chesapeake: 28" Suffolk: 28" Richmond: 25" Hanover: 25" Chesterfield: 25" Norfolk: 22" Franklin: 22" Virginia Beach: 22" Maryland Salisbury: 53" Cambridge: 41" Lexington Park: 37" Ocean City: 30" Ridgely: 25" Easton: 25" Clinton: 25" North Carolina Edenton: 24" Ahoskie: 22" Elizabeth City: 10" Currituck: 10"

Yeah, RIC only recorded 7.2". A pretty boring event, just very light to only occasionally moderate snow. The super cold temps are what saved it. Got another storm a week later (2/26/2015) where about 5-6" fell in only a few hours, more in the Hampton Roads area. The snow started around midnight and quickly became heavy up until it ended around 6am. Officially, 5.0" fell at RIC and 5.6" at ORF. I thought I had saved more images from that storm, it could be because I was still living in Seattle at the time, but tracked from afar.

@JFLETCHER, This is from the snowstorm on February 16-17, 2015. It was a very cold snowstorm for all of Virginia, one of the coldest snowstorms, at least in my lifetime, and one of the rare occasions where the entire state was under a winter storm warning. RIC was in the low to mid-teens for most of the snowstorm. Hoping to see something like this again.

It's sad, but winters like this one and last year are becoming more routine. We will still get cold and snow (maybe even a HECS occasionally) with the right pattern and timing, but it will become more challenging, and cold will be more limited in intensity and duration. Winters in Richmond and the mid-Atlantic overall have declined since about 1990. Our oceans are torching, which is part of the problem.

The most QPF I saw was maybe 0.60" on ONE of the runs about 24 hours or so out. Most amounts were in the 0.20 to 0.40" range, and the coldest temp I noticed on the models around DCA was 32°F-33°F. And it was always supposed to be a rain-to-snow situation with temps dropping from the mid and upper 30s, which causes you to lose QPF. Given the marginal temps and limited QPF, I don't understand why up to 3-5" was even in the forecast anywhere nearby. @Stormpcno, but I was up for the bust to see the weenie tears. When DCA was still 40°F at 1am, I knew it was over. Even at 1am, the forecast still called for "heavy snow" and 2-4" (see below). They ended up recording 0.1" of snow and only .10" of QPF.

Wakefield is still pretty bullish for @JFLETCHER's area and toward the Northern Neck. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 VAZ064-075-076-509>511-521-170430- /O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0004.240217T0300Z-240217T1200Z/ Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa- Western Hanover-Western Essex- Including the cities of Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, and Tappahannock 319 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please call 5 1 1. For the latest road information in North Carolina, go to http://DriveNC.gov.

Also, @JB Fins Duncan started a YT channel. I know he had freelanced at some stations since his retirement from NBC12. https://www.youtube.com/@weatherspin

My honor. I went all in because of the El Nino. Yes, we got the moisture but couldn't get good cold. And when we finally got a decent cold airmass, it was centered a bit too far west, and that 1/15 storm tracked just west and north of us along the boundary giving places like Chattanooga and Nashville 6+" of snow. I am not active during the summer and not a severe weather fan since thunderstorms are so routine around here that it's hard to get excited about them. I track hurricanes, though, so I'll chime in if there is a legitimate threat. But, it's been a while even for that, maybe in 2018 when Florence hit NC and spawned some tornadoes nearby. Hopefully, next winter delivers. Whether I will live here for the entire time remains to be seen. I might be moving away again, but not certain where yet. I will probably know at the end of the year.

Euro was also lower for DC proper. Looks like the best places to be are MoCo and toward BWI, parts of the Delmarva.

Yeah, I'm monitoring. I won't be leaving until 6pm or 7pm if I even leave at all. I have a ton of things to do this weekend so going up will set me back so it's also something I'm weighing.

I am having second thoughts. I might drive up to Arlington later today. Will make a decision soon. I can't help myself.

Yeah, that's the most frustrating part, along with the fact they are so close to us. And that they display the worst level of entitlement on the east coast. I see a lot of people canceling winter, but we've seen sneaky events in the past into March. There was more support for tonight's threat on the EPS. I only saw 4 of 51 members with anything from the 23rd to the 24th. The next threat looked like 29th to 1st.

Agree wholeheartedly. And the lack of extreme cold and how that doesn't bode well for the rest of the winter. I showed that one member, but the 12z EPS overall did not have much of a wintry look, just seasonal to slightly above average temps. There was still a weak signal around the 24th and around the 1st. I considered driving up to Arlington tomorrow to see snow. I usually stay in Ballston when I do. But I will probably pass on that idea. Maybe I'd think twice if they were getting a widespread 6"+ event. Also, must've been amazing to experience the March 1993 storm, hopefully we see something like that again in our lifetimes.

I'm not yet ready to give up since it's only 2/15. I am optimistic each winter until about the 2nd week in March, and then, if I see no concrete signals one to two weeks from there, it's time to accept defeat. It's a shame the winter turned out this way, and equally as frustrating that the DC area, which is not that far from us, may end up being the I-95 jackpot region because they successfully nickeled and dimed their way to average. Models even trended better within 48 hours for each event, which is different from how it usually works. Nonetheless, hopefully, there will be better luck next year, but with the return of a possible La Nina it's hard to be too excited.

Just piggybacking off of @Conway7305's post on the weeklies for mid March. Just adding some hope, that's all. Of course, it's just ONE member out of 51 that I cherry picked since we are all pretty depressed, as @Stormpc's post clarifies the situation we're all in. I know we're tired of looking at these maps and charts. Trust me, I understand.

If you want more hope, one EPS member had a Miller A HECS from 29 Feb to 1 Mar. Here are some airport snowfall totals from it. Areas closest to the coast get its snow on the back side of the low. Fredericksburg: 18" Ashland: 17" Louisa: 15" Tappahannock: 15" Richmond: 14" New Kent: 12" Chesterfield: 11" Petersburg: 10" West Point: 9" Williamsburg: 6" Newport News: 5" Hampton: 4" Ahoskie, NC: 4" Norfolk: 2" Currituck, NC: 2"

The Euro has the low tracking along the KY/TN border and then once it gets to VA, it takes an abrupt jump north from about Bristol to Roanoke to Wallops Island by 4am Saturday morning. Not understanding what is making the low take that last minute jump north instead of following the same trajectory. The GFS keeps the low along the VA/NC border, really northern NC, which makes more sense to me.

This is the map AKQ put out this morning. Best chance of 1" or more is north of about Ruther Glen.

@RVAman,The colder air aloft is not as deep before 1am, but that's before the best precip comes in, so it won't matter as much. But, this suggests that there is a higher likelihood that any precipitation will be rain before the heavier rates arrive around 1am. 10pm 925mb temps 1am 925mb temps

GFS has precip arriving Friday night between 10pm and 11pm. It has the heaviest QPF between 1am and 4am. Between 1am and 4am, surface temperatures go from around 36 to 33 degrees in the Richmond metro area. However, temperatures are below freezing at the 925mb and 850mb levels. To overcome air temperatures above freezing at the surface and for the snow to accumulate, we will need heavy precip rates to bring down the colder air aloft. Otherwise, the snow would just melt on contact. It could even fall as rain the whole time if it's too light. That's because it may not be heavy enough to bring down the below-freezing air at 925mb and higher. Will need to watch the trends.

The best lift is still north around the i-66 corridor. I am not sure if the rates farther south, mainly south of Ashland will be able to overcome the marginal surface temperatures accumulate. QPF is very limited so anything wasted makes it even more difficult south of Caroline County.

It's never over until it's actually over.

I like it.

@JFLETCHER, you're definitely in a good spot.

Yes, and we've been through plenty of marginal events and busts. Just saying it's not over until it's over. But I agree. I wish things were better, but I'm just trying to be positive, as the HRRR, which changes every hour, is only one model. The end goal is for all of us to get a decent snowfall, so we're all here with curiosity and still tracking this threat.