RIC Airport

GFS was suppressed with the southern stream wave, which the below was as far north as the precip got. Just sharing in case people wondered, I'm sure this won't be the final solution, but quite a change over the last 24 hours. I like that it's still south. Plenty of things can make this work out in our favor with wiggle room on the models.

A lot of these people on X don't speak for our area. And personally, I'm not a fan of that dude, but that's a different discussion.

I can only do the EPS members. Unfortunately, from what I've seen, NCEP doesn't release them. But this is the best I can do. Here are some charts from a few places in the bullseye. Widespread 22-34".

Today's 12z EPS maps are the best we've seen before the mid-January threats. It's been frustrating, for sure, so we'll see. But, there is still a decent signal for the 17th-25th.

As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days. The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals.

Euro has a rainstorm for 2/17 to 2/18 like the GFS. This is not going to be the storm we're looking for.

00z GEFS thru 00z 2/20, only 3-4hits.

CMC jumped 1K miles from its 12z.

The CMC is the closest to what the Euro showed at 12z.

Maybe this will be one of the rare times it leads.

I don't normally look at the Canadian, but fwiw.

00z GFS didn't deliver, it says drive to Binghamton if you want snow. Maybe the Euro will deliver hope again.

The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits. But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc. Richmond: 11" Ashland/Hanover: 11" Chesterfield: 11" West Point: 13" Accomack: 18" Norfolk: 19" Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19" Chesapeake: 22" Petersburg: 23" Chesapeake (Fentress) 24" Wakefield: 24" Currituck, NC: 24" Elizabeth City, NC: 26" Franklin: 27" Williamsburg: 28" Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28" Suffolk: 28" Langley AFB: 28" Newport News: 28" Emporia: 32"

So, looking at the EPS, I can identify the 18th-20th and the 23rd to 25th as the second threat. There are not many good snow hits for our region, and there are quite a few rainy members. I looked at places like PHL and NYC during this time frame, and some of the ensemble members have them performing very well, so there is still an outcome too far north on the table. My confidence at this time still needs to improve on whether or not this pattern will produce a satisfactory result. But it can still change in the coming days.

The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time.

The 12z GEFS 10 day snowfall mean ending 12z 2/25 shows that a farther north solution with accumulations around CLT up toward RIC and interior SE VA is still possible. If you watch the below animation closely, which starts at 00z 2/17 and ends at 12z 2/24, a few members have some snowfall hits. You may also notice some of them have us getting snowfall from more than one system between those dates. However, there are also many rainy members, but just trying to point out something positive, at least from a surface depiction, that I see.

I decided to take a break until we see consistency. It's way too early to give up. As @Conway7305 alluded to, the ingredients are there, and every model will handle the features differently regarding strength and timing since we are still talking about 9-10 days away. Now that the operational Euro is within range let's focus on it and see how it handles everything. I understand the GFS runs before the Euro, but we tend to only focus on the GFS since it runs 4 times a day through 384 hours. The VD day storm is not even set in stone for places like NYC and BOS, and it's only a few days away. The GFS is still wobbling with that track, while the Euro has been more consistent.

18z ens snow maps and charts, fwiw.

It's not like 12z, but at least we didnt lose the storm.

18Z GFS coming in good for Richmond and west for the PD storm.

Yup, usually around Montana is the golden spot. Also, and this is just for everyone's SA, the EPS only goes out to 360hrs while the GEFS goes out to 384. So, the EPS may catch up as we get closer within range. The window still seems to be the 18th-25th, and there could be just one or two different lows, something to keep in mind. Now that the operational Euro is within range, I'll start looking at more details at 500mb and comparing GFS/Euro. I prefer to avoid getting into the weeds beyond day 10 and look at the larger picture. i.e. teleconnections.

EPS is still very meh.

Sorry, out and about today. Still a lot of support for next week’s storm, but I’m not believing it since the Euro is not in board.