RIC Airport

I just added the full loop and removed the snow the GFS showed for the storm next week to my earlier post. This is a great sign for our area. Too bad it's still so far away.

Yup, waiting on the next couple panels before I post the maps.

GFS crushes us for PD

I am not believing the 12z GFS for next week until the Euro is on board. Just saying.

The 6z GEFS snowfall mean was high. Hopefully the 12z EPS continues to catch up. We are headed in the right direction.

So looking at the 00z GEFS/EPS and the 6z GEFS, I am please to say that I are now seeing the ensemble mean approaching where we were heading toward the mid-January threats. So, my confidence about this pattern producing something of substance has increased since yesterday afternoon.

6z map for 18th-19th.

I will disengage from run-to-run monitoring until we see consistency. The 00z GFS introduces the idea of two storms. 18-19 and then another the 21st-22nd. The 1st storm is rain, but the second is a rain to snow scenario.

18z GEFS is a nice improvement. It's not over, there are some nice hits, best looking chart of the day.

As I mentioned earlier, it may not even be THE storm. When you look at the ensembles, if you believe they are useful, there appears to be more than one opportunity for snow around PD day and then beyond that around the 21st or 22nd, which is when the -NAO is slated to start weakening. It has been a frustrating winter for many. We are running out of time.

Highs were in the 40s for five days before that storm. And don't forget, RIC reached 72°F on 1/2/2022 before 3-5" fell the next day. One of the best examples of extreme warmth here before a snowstorm was the 3/3/2014 storm when RIC reached 73°F on 3/2/2014 and recorded 3.0" the next day. It was a solid 4-8" event for most of the state, then RIC hit 11°F the following day. It was also 69°F two days before the March 1-2, 2009 storm, just as arctic air was pressing down. It was also a Miller A storm that even brought snow to Atlanta. So, those types of situations have had success.

@Shad

I like the optimism, and I am trying to remain positive. While I understand that even the ensembles are subject to fluctuations, we had better looks going into the mid-January threats. I am not yet seeing that level as both the EPS/GEFS continues to look rather bleak as we approach mid-late February. I want to see a solid hit on at least 10 of 30 ensembles on the GEFS before I get confident. But, we've been maxing out at around 5 or so. For EPS, I think 18-20 hits would probably be ideal.

There is the storm at Day 10 on the Euro. EPS will be interesting with this look. The flow is flat looking so hopefully it doesn't track too far south of us. But, verbatim this looks suppressed.

A lot can go wrong, but there were better hits up your way on the 12z GEFS, fwiw.

I was not overly impressed with the 12z GEFS. The below loop starts at 00z 2/16 and ends at 12z 2/23. Some hits, some misses, and quite a few rainy members for that period. p28 was the most snow for RIC with 11", and p13 dropped 5" at ORF, but there were just as many misses, if not more, than hits.

I'm not going to lie and say I'm not concerned, given the persistence of this winter and the core of the coldest air staying just to our north and west. But, as @eaglesin2011 mentioned, we probably will know how the models will handle the storm around PD day when the VD storm passes. In the coming days, I'll look for clues at the 500 MB level. I try not to get into the nitty gritty details until closer to the event, like around Day 7.

I added a few maps to my post after you quoted me. And as the saying goes, the models usually sniff out the big ones early. The GFS has shown this storm at our latitude for the last seven runs since yesterday's 00z run. This is how the 18z Tuesday GFS looked when it and earlier runs had the storm well south of us. So, I agree with everyone that things can change since we are still talking 300 hours out. Just hoping we aren't on the fringes and most of us are solidly in the game for 6"+ of snow.

12z GFS is back north for 2/18/ to 2/19. This will continue to fluctuate since it's so far out. The last 10 days of the month are still the window. There are different pieces of energy around, and who knows which one will even be the storm.

Every setup is different; I can recall quite a few that had warm temperatures before. On 2/19/2012, RIC had 4" of snow, and the high reached 61°F on 2/18/2012. Also, on 12/5/2005, RIC recorded 4.2" of snow, and it hit 64°F the day before that. There are other examples. But, there have been quite a few cases where it hasn't worked out, such as 2/11/2006 and 2/16/2003. We had accumulations from these events, but those storms were far below expectations because of a delay in cold either at the surface, or we got screwed because of warm air at the 700mb level. The VD storm is rain on the 12z GFS. I'm still surprised it was getting so much support on the ensembles. We've seen last-minute shifts, such as 1/3/2018, 12/9/2018, 12/26/2010, 1/25/2000, and 2/16/1996, but I'm not feeling that. We are in deep trouble if the end of the month doesn't pan out. I always tell people snow season isn't over until March 31st, but relying on March to save the winter isn't a great predicament to be in. That said, March has rivaled December, at least historically, for snowfall averages. It can produce.

Last night's EPS was quite an improvement as well. I guess next week's threat isn't quite dead in the water. I added OFP and PHF charts as well.

Yup, verbatim we are in the low-mid 50s the day before. By 1am, as the precip is moving, we are raining with temperatures still in the mid-40s and waiting for colder air. 6 hours later, temperatures are at freezing from about Williamsburg north and west with snow falling. Ideally, we'd be cold enough from the start.

It's too bad it's 300 hours away, but this is the outcome we need, even if there is a little bit of IP/ZR to deal with.