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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 minute ago, weatherguysc said:

I do as well but the new update at 11:32 shows 222.8 in that same area.

Q4AnWj7.jpg

I just found that too :yikes: 

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Just a quick question, since when it moves onshore winds will be blowing over land rather than water will that reduce maximum winds on that quadrant or will it really not matter 

That's a bit out of my area of knowledge but I would think there would be some reduction of wind over land, however, in this case I don't think it really matters. I mean when talking about winds of this magnitude is there really much of a difference?

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Someone else feel free to chime in but considering the intensity, size, surge prone coast being affected, major population area, high end real estate and rainfall associated flooding could this be the costliest CONUS hurricane of all time by the time ALL is said and done?  Katrina stands out in front of the pack but have to believe this will make it into the top 5.  Any thoughts?

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Just now, MANDA said:

Someone else feel free to chime in but considering the intensity, size, surge prone coast being affected, major population area, high end real estate and rainfall associated flooding could this be the costliest CONUS hurricane of all time by the time ALL is said and done?  Katrina stands out in front of the pack but have to believe this will make it into the top 5.  Any thoughts?

Definitely top 5 and depending on what happens further northeast-inland FL, NE FL and SC/GA it could be top 3

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Holy crap...I hope that is just some sort of error. 

I mean, sampling the inbound side's returns, I'm seeing plenty of 180s to 190s with a spot of 210 and 222. So, I don't think it's an error. Mesovorts around an eye like that. Does still seem to be strengthening. Phew.

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1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Someone else feel free to chime in but considering the intensity, size, surge prone coast being affected, major population area, high end real estate and rainfall associated flooding could this be the costliest CONUS hurricane of all time by the time ALL is said and done?  Katrina stands out in front of the pack but have to believe this will make it into the top 5.  Any thoughts?

Katrina, Sandy, Harvey in that order. This may fall as #4. 

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1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Someone else feel free to chime in but considering the intensity, size, surge prone coast being affected, major population area, high end real estate and rainfall associated flooding could this be the costliest CONUS hurricane of all time by the time ALL is said and done?  Katrina stands out in front of the pack but have to believe this will make it into the top 5.  Any thoughts?

Thing is, New Orleans was essentially an unfilled pool waiting for splashover

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Here are the radar loops for Tampa Bay

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW/loop.html

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW2/loop.html

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KTBW3/loop.html

The first one is in tighter. The other 2 are over wider distances. These loops make it look like it is moving due north right now.

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1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:

I mean, sampling the inbound side's returns, I'm seeing plenty of 180s to 190s with a spot of 210 and 222. So, I don't think it's an error. Mesovorts around an eye like that. Does still seem to be strengthening. Phew.

Yeah there's definitely support for this. Very terrifying. Even more terrifying that Ian continues to show signs of strengthening. With the eye so large too, even when a part of the eye gets over land he may still be able to ingest enough warm/moist air to maintain cat 4/5 longer than usual or even continue with the strengthening signal for a time.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I just found that too :yikes: 

That's a bit out of my area of knowledge but I would think there would be some reduction of wind over land, however, in this case I don't think it really matters. I mean when talking about winds of this magnitude is there really much of a difference?

Sounds like it could be the worst of both worlds. Side that gets less surge gets worse winds 

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1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

Just something to consider. If Ian dumps as much rain as forecasted, this may not weaken as much as we would normally expect as it moves across FL(seen this happen in the past). This could have serious implications for the GA/SC/NC coast down the line. 

Why would that happen? Brown ocean effect from it's own rainfall?

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Quote Tweet

Dave Malkoff

@malkoff

· 34m

Crazy #HurricaneHunt ! Our @USAFReserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron just landed. We hit hail, massive turbulence in the eye wall that dropped us 1000+ feet and saw #hurricaneIan rapidly intensity. It was NOT even calm inside the eye.

edit: they suffered some damage to their plane in the storm 

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

What do people think will be the highest wind speed recorded at ground level?  All these eye popping numbers are substantially elevated in the atmosphere, I'll be interested to see what actually makes it down to street level.  I'm thinking we should at least see a few 120mph or so.   

I'll go with 90mph sustained, gust to 110-120mph.

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1 minute ago, Intensewind002 said:

Why would that happen? Brown ocean effect from it's own rainfall?

Much of FL is swamp land so it won't weaken as fast as if it was headed into a mountainous area, but it won't stay cat 4 or 5 for very long since perfect conditions are needed for that. If it speeds up it might stay as a hurricane across the peninsula though. 

Unfortunately for Charlotte Harbor looks like a worst case track/scenario here. Cape Coral near the edge of the eyewall too and will experience hours of steep water rise. Naples is a good bit further away from the eye and seeing steep rises. 

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