DeltaT13

Rochester getting shafted again in the rain dept. All the heavy rain is going South of us. Going to be heading into a full blown drought by this time next week.

Man I didnt even register .01" from that frontal passage and the next week looks very dry. It's going to be a grind watering ery'day!

Another day of disappointment coming for the Niagara frontier. Lake Erie is going to shadow us again. It’s soooo dry…gahhhh

Every response to him is a win. He’s playing a different game that has nothing to do with weather. Just block and never respond.

Looking back there was a marine layer again that triggered the eventual main storms. The first batch near Buffalo was driven from something else upstream. Tracking that marine layer is critical and a combination of the hrrr and NAM had this event down very well. A touch behind on timing.

Meso models actually did really well with the Rochester and fingerlakes area. Almost nailed them to a T. Not too shabby. I thankfully got .45" of rain which is better than nothing. UR must have gotten almost 2 inches and some small hail.

Yeah this is unusual. Marine layer is apparently not in play right now. Storms are way further West than any Meso model had them. I expect outflow from that first batch of storms will blow up something huge over the Genny valley in the next 3-4 hours. I can see storms in Canada 50 miles away from my office window so these storms are building pretty tall.

Well the boundary of the marine layer proved to be a massive trigger for a pretty high end event yesterday. The damage in Livingston and Ontario counties was pretty extensive. 100mph microburst/downburst really rocked portions of 20a.

Not one drop of rain today. Lake Erie is a bastard in these early summer setups.

That storm just east of you is the real mvp so far. Lake Erie marine layer is going to win this battle further west. Looking pretty ragged

You can see the marine layer from Erie on radar. These storms are going north and south of Rochester.

surface based CAPE values are slightly above 5000j/kg. That’s pretty amazing.

Buffalo to roc looks firmly entrenched in the stable Lake Erie marine layer.

You’re in a better position than I am. Just outside the typical shadow

CAPE values already over 4000j/kg at 10am but the ever present Lake Erie shadow worries me. I would love to cash in on this energy with some massive storms today.