DeltaT13

Weekend storm is out to sea on the 0z. But that run was a bit odd with two lows forming off hatteras.

18z wasn’t good for me. Miss the nor’easter and the follow up clipper is rain, at least on the gfs.

As an off topic side note, just saw that Kobe Bryant died today. That's super sad

Pretty much any direction you turn down there has a picture of a lifetime. Its insane. The scale of those mountains is had to imagine, but that little winding road will give you some reference.

We can definitely take this DM or FB messenger. I think we talked on there once before when we were going to meet up at Holiday Valley. Anyway, a super express version of my trip Day1 - Land in Auckland, hiked Mt Edna volcanic crater. Ate meat pies, then drove to Piha Beach to swim in the Tasman Sea in giant waves! Day2 - Drove to Waitomo Glow worm caves. Rappelled into the caves blackwater rafted and spelunked a bit, saw a million glow worms. Then drove to Lake Taupo that night and checked into our airbnb Day3 - We were supposed to hike the Rongario Volcano but it was canceled because of bad weather. This was actually a good thing as we needed a rest day. We spent the day soaking in geothermal pools then did a night on the town and got pretty wrecked. Day4 - Drove to Rotorua and toured the steam vents and National gardens, hopped a flight in the afternoon to Christchurch. Once in christchurch, we checked into our hostel and went out to watch a big Rugby game that the whole country was watching Day5 - Drove to Mt Cook and hiked the 6 mile (roundtrip) trail to the Glacier base where we drank single malt scotched cooled by glacier ice. The views were INSANE, the hike was perfect. Day6 - Drove to Lake Wanaka for the afternoon then continued down to Queenstown where we checked into our Air BNB and had a wild night on the town. Queenstown has a great night life. Day7- Drove to Milford sound and took a boat out to the Ocean and back. The drive was insanely long for a one day round trip but the views were the most amazing places I've ever seen in my life. This is the place they filmed Lord of Rings. Amazing temperate rainforest with glacial topped mountains. Day8 - Bungee Jumped off the Kawarau bridge, then spent a day in town seeing the sites. Queenstown is an awesome little city. The remarkable mountains are fantastic. Day9 - Flew back to Auckland and started the long trek home..

Yes it is, a small slice of the cost difference. A round of 4 beers at the bar was usually 60-70 dollars NZ. I did two weeks there in 2018 and hit all the big stops. Was a once in a lifetime trip and blew me away. Let me know if you have questions.

Those pressures are at least realistic. We are still in the game, haha. But we have a really really long way to go.

I felt alright about this run. It’s a just a hair away from a perfect track for us. I get nervous seeing it move towards a cutter but it’s better than a complete miss which was in the cards a few runs ago.

The storm is obviously over amplified that far out and somewhat bogus. A 958 low at that latitude low is exceedingly rare even in the realm of all the giant historic nor’easters. Several standard deviations out of the norm. I don’t get too caught up on strength, just looking for the timing of the two short waves and a nice cold high somewhere over eastern Canada right now.

Surface temps don’t really go sub freezing for several days on the route you’ll be taking home. I think it’s a complete non issue for you. Should be wet roads start to finish.

I mean it’s there every time. It’s just a tricky phase, and both storms that need to phase are still in the pacific. In some sense there is startling consistency so far out, that southern stream storm is always there. It’s the northern stream that only needs to only shift a bit for a huge storm or near miss.

You forgot the part where we see a pattern change or monster nor’Easter at hour 240

Dang, we can high five as I check out and you check in. I'm going from the 2-5th, driving home on the 6th. You appear to be there during a slightly more favorable time period, but we've been chasing fantasy winter weather 10 days out for months now so we shall see what actually comes to fruition. The fact that there is a strong miller A lurking around next weekend for many runs now is at least something we can track.

Good eye Tim, sure enough its a nasty cutter just a day later. LOLz, this winter is just brutal. I've got my Whiteface trip next weekend. Only half the mountain is open and things are trending in the wrong direction already. Pure garbage.....

I still have a very robust 6 inch snowpack. There is almost no sign of melting even though temps topped out at 37 today. Those obscenely low dewpoints in the single digits certainly saved the day.