DeltaT13

Wow, thanks for linking those stories BW. I knew those cells looked intense and slow moving. Lots of runoff and low lying spots in that city too. A bad combination.

I would expect some flash flooding in Toronto right now. Very potent and virtually stationary cell pounding the western city and western suburbs.

Lake Erie has an insatiable appetite for convection this year. It just destroys everything. The 12z 3km NAM modeled it perfectly. Explosive convection of Southern Ontario just getting decimated as it entered NY state. Brutal stuff for those of us who like storms. Unlike most of you, I am loving this heat and humidity. It's perfect, we get both intense summers and intense winters, the best of both worlds. Plus fall is usually long and fantastic.

Yeah, very hit or miss setup. Some places will get 3-5 inches while others get less than a half inch total. KROC got .5 yesterday which was certainly better than nothing. If we can tack on another .5 today and tomorrow we will be doing alright.

Sorry to hear most of you got shafted. The west side of ROC had some very intense storms for about 40 minutes yesterday around 415. We picked up 1.9" in that amount of time with some minor tree damage and street flooding. Was quite the gullywasher and just what we needed.

Just took a peek at the radar and that storm over Cattaraugus county immediately jumped out at me. Very explosive growth, slightly right moving, hook echo-ish. Very surprised it didn’t have any warning. Looked potentially tornadic to me. The hills obscured the critical region of the velocity data.

The Lake Erie shadow has kept the Niagara frontier over to KROC very dry and boring so far this summer. It seems more powerful and persistent than usual. The drought situation on the West side of Monroe county (also Orleans County) is getting pretty bad. I would do anything for a good 1-2 inch soaker. Oh well, looks like it will be at least another 4-5 days until our next shot at precip, and from the looks of that frontal passage we'll get shadowed again. Loving this heat though, it feels amazing.

Saw some nice Mammatus clouds ahead of the storms today as the anvils were way out ahead of them.

Looks amazing, should be very long days while you are there which will be cool. Can you fire up a summer thread for us before you leave? Todays storms are looking decent over Ontario. Lets see how they do with the Erie shadow.

A lot of bugs showing up on radar tonight. These first warm nights really bring them out.

So far the lake does appear to be playing a role in things as convection has fired up along the usual Lake Erie Shadow/lake breeze and also NW or Erie. Hoping I don't get completely shafted...

That’s a good question. Past experience has shown that these very powerful spring storms with strong upper and low level dynamics overwhelm any lake influcences as if they don’t even exist. The summer storms get absolutely devoured by the stable lake air though.

Squall line is taking shape in Michigan with a large area of clearing ahead. Eventually blow off from that line will outrun the squall line itself but looks like a solid few hours of heating before that happens. Would love to see CAPES get up into the 1500 range as all the other ingredients are in place.

I hadnt noticed Buffalo getting shafted until you mentioned it. ROC was roasting yesterday with a record high of 85. We only got down to 65 overnight too, mid summer warmth for bit here.

As a quick and dirty check I just looked at the CF6's from the last 5 years. 2013 - 82 on April 13th 2014 - 82 on May 9th but Several mid 70's days in Mid April 2015 - 80 on may 7th, and highs stayed in the 80's for 5 days straight with a max of 89 on the 9th. They hit 78 on April 13th. 2016 - 81 on May 12th. Only hit mid 70's a few time in Mid April. This spring looks pretty cool on paper 2017 - 85 on April 27th. As crappy as this Spring has been we look to hit our first 80 day right in the standard window. But our average temps are way low. This week looks great but then next weekend is crap again. We really need to time this better Mother nature...