DeltaT13

Only had very heavy rain and thunder here but appears to have developed some hail and gusty winds just downstream of me.

One perfect cell taking dead aim at my backyard! What a treat! Just a nice perfect summer thunderstorm.

The High Res NAM does really well with warm season convection, or it has as of late.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 845 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1052 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W NIAGARA FALLS 43.09N 79.06W 06/02/2020 NIAGARA NY BROADCAST MEDIA LARGE TREE FELL ON HOUSE ON 4TH STREET 1105 PM HAIL GRANDYLE VILLAGE 42.99N 78.95W 06/02/2020 M1.50 INCH ERIE NY BROADCAST MEDIA 1109 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE SOLDIERS PLACE 42.92N 78.86W 06/02/2020 ERIE NY NWS EMPLOYEE SEVERAL MASSIVE TREES DOWN ON HORTON PLACE 1112 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S SOLDIERS PLACE 42.91N 78.88W 06/02/2020 ERIE NY BROADCAST MEDIA LARGE TREE FELL ON CAR ON ELMWOOD AVE. 1113 PM HAIL SOLDIERS PLACE 42.92N 78.87W 06/02/2020 M1.00 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER HAIL IN ELMWOOD VILLAGE 1115 PM HAIL BUFFALO 42.89N 78.86W 06/02/2020 M1.00 INCH ERIE NY BROADCAST MEDIA 1120 PM HAIL 2 ENE LACKAWANNA 42.83N 78.80W 06/02/2020 E1.25 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER 1124 PM TSTM WND DMG BUFFALO 42.88N 78.87W 06/02/2020 ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER LARGE TREE DOWN ON CLINTON STREET. 1124 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 W BUFFALO 42.89N 78.90W 06/02/2020 M69 MPH LEZ041 NY NOS-NWLON 1143 PM HAIL 1 NW COLDEN 42.65N 78.70W 06/02/2020 M1.00 INCH ERIE NY COCORAHS 1144 PM TSTM WND DMG BERGEN 43.08N 77.94W 06/02/2020 GENESEE NY LAW ENFORCEMENT TREE DOWN ON RT 19 1147 PM HAIL 1 NW COLDEN 42.65N 78.70W 06/02/2020 M1.00 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER 1201 AM HAIL 2 SSE EAST CONCORD 42.53N 78.63W 06/03/2020 M1.25 INCH ERIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER HAIL JUST OVER 1.25 INCHES 1212 AM HAIL GLENWOOD 42.62N 78.66W 06/03/2020 M1.25 INCH ERIE NY SOCIAL MEDIA 1212 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 WNW SLOAN 42.90N 78.83W 06/03/2020 ERIE NY SOCIAL MEDIA SYCAMORE ST. AND WALDEN FLOODED WITH FOUR PEOPLE TRAPPED IN A CAR. 1212 AM HAIL YORKSHIRE 42.52N 78.48W 06/03/2020 M1.25 INCH CATTARAUGUS NY SOCIAL MEDIA 1215 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 W SOLDIERS PLACE 42.93N 78.90W 06/03/2020 ERIE NY SOCIAL MEDIA RAMP I-190S TO ROUTE 198E CLOSED BECAUSE OF FLOODING. 1220 AM TSTM WND DMG MACHIAS 42.42N 78.49W 06/03/2020 CATTARAUGUS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. 1222 AM FLASH FLOOD WINCHESTER 42.87N 78.79W 06/03/2020 ERIE NY SOCIAL MEDIA EAST BOUND ON I-90 AT EXIT 51 FLOODED. 1225 AM TSTM WND GST 6 SSE DELEVAN 42.42N 78.42W 06/03/2020 M61 MPH CATTARAUGUS NY MESONET 1225 AM TSTM WND DMG WEST VALLEY 42.40N 78.61W 06/03/2020 CATTARAUGUS NY BROADCAST MEDIA LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN ACROSS DRIVEWAY 1236 AM TSTM WND DMG ELLICOTTVILLE 42.27N 78.67W 06/03/2020 CATTARAUGUS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. 1242 AM TSTM WND DMG CUBA 42.22N 78.28W 06/03/2020 ALLEGANY NY LAW ENFORCEMENT WIRES DOWN. 1252 AM TSTM WND DMG BOLIVAR 42.07N 78.17W 06/03/2020 ALLEGANY NY LAW ENFORCEMENT TREE DOWN.

While the presence and placement of last nights storms was well forecasted, the intensity was a huge miss. Quite fascinating to see an event like this occur with very little advanced warning. The Hazardous Weather product called out Gusty Winds and heavy rain as the primary threat, and confidence seemed low from the verbiage in the discussions. We ended up with 60,000ft storms spitting golf ball size hail, winds gusting to 70mph, rain rates near 3-5"/hr, and continuous cloud to ground lightning for well over an hour in some locations. It's kind of fun to know that a storm can still catch us almost completely off-guard. We had the best snowstorm of the year the second week of November. We had nice Spring weather in March. And we just saw the most intense thunderstorms that we'll see all summer and potentially for several years happen the first week of June. We've really blown our loads early these last few seasons.

Round 2 is charging across Michigan and on schedule to hit buffalo again around 8-9am. We’ll see what happens as diurnal effects usually weaken and turn these systems sharply south. Could be a hell of a 12 hour window of storms though.

Lot of really interesting things in that loop. Notice how that first big cell that hits Niagara county turns a bit right and really dives straight south into the more unstable downstream air. Nocturnal storms are definitely WNY’s best chance at severe weather.

I just chased it and nearly got more than I bargained for. I was able to cut off this cell. Next thing you know I was in one of the strongest hail cores I’ve seen around here in awhile. I think I sustained a few dents and chipped windshield. Daylight will tell. It went from whoa fun to holy shit really fast. Haha. Super powerful storm though. Absolutely continuous lightning.

I can see the top of that storm from my patio. The lightning is absolutely continuous from this vantage. Just amazing. I can even see cloud structure. I’m 50 miles away!

I saw some 65dbz returns packed with cloud to ground lighting strikes so I figured there must be a nasty hail core in there. That seems quite unusual for a nocturnal MCS

Those storms are building beautifully and packed with lightning. Wish I could chase em.

That MCS over Wisconsin is a beaut.

Yup! Pretty fun to watch. Looks like buffalo is lining up to get clobbered right now and Rochester is going to be too far east. I hate missing out on these events, they are so rare around here. The most intense lightning storms I’ve ever seen around here are always MCS’s. Buckle up buffalo, it’s looking promising for you guys

This will be a major point of conversation for sure.

I think outdoor transmission is minimal at best. Hence why spring break didn’t cause a spike and the reopening protests in Michigan didnt cause a spike.