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About DeltaT13

  • Rank
    Snowtorious BIG
  • Birthday April 12

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Gates, NY (KROC)
  • Interests
    Music, Snowboarding, Fishing, The Outdoors, Gardening, Concerts, Astronomy, Beer, Enjoying the little things...Lake Effect Snow, etc, etc

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  1. It's an interesting discussion and one we revisit often on here. If the NWS was calling for clear skies or just flurries, I would say the forecast busted. However the forecast gave most locations on the south shore at least a chance at some heavier squalls with potentially a few inches in localized areas. If you got 1-2 inches more than the 1-2 forecast I hardly call that a bust. I'm very surprised at the level of accuracy that people demand from forecasters these days. Certainly not something I envy and it makes me glad I didnt become a professional forecaster for my day job. If I looked at the forecast and what happened that night I would give them nearly 100 percent grade with respect to timing, placement, and accumulations. They covered their bases and no one should have been shocked unless totals got above say 6 or 8 inches (in Monroe County). Even way down my way I figured there was a chance I would wake up to 2-3 inches or maybe bare ground The forecast seemed good to me, but I guess I'm much more lenient. I'm just glad we have snow to talk about and the Rochester clan is back posting.
  2. The NWS maps routinely had 2-4 called out for Northern/Northeastern Monroe county. If you flip back a few pages you can see the forecasts. The HRR also pegged the band that hit you quite well. I wouldnt say this was unexpected at all. Anyway, be happy nothing but a sugar coat down south of the city.
  3. The next 10 days looks downright good for this time of year (IE: marginal shots at some flakes, temps below freezing some days). It's not like its mid January and we are blowtorching. We can routinely have highs in the 50's and 60's this time of year. Let's tone down the panic, we are off to a better than normal start in my opinion with a few transient cold shots on the horizon. Things are going to be ok.
  4. Nice write up. It is relatively active pattern that we look to be in for the next few weeks. The cold hits are fast and transient but certainly a better start than some years (specifically 2015/2016). Kind of intrigued by that large cut off low with deep tropical moisture over the southeast out near 6 days. A little better phasing and that would be a sizeable system. Lots to watch means happy weather nerds, excited to be back.
  5. I can't quite remember the event a few years back when Buffalo was under blizzard warnings for a couple days. Winds were moderately strong for several days and visibility was virtually zero. I think it may have been early January and it was mostly lake effect driven. That was a pretty intense setup for you guys.
  6. People bashing last December have bad memories. The event from the 14th to 16th was pretty awesome for almost everyone as some arctic fronts crashed the band onto the South shore several times and we also hooked up a nice GB connection for a time. We all did pretty well with that one and there was also an event about 4 days before that one that was decent. January was a pretty big letdown though after a solid start to the season but the usual suspects (tug hill, southern tier) had a couple big hits both early and late in the month. http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=C
  7. Last December was actually about a good as gets around here for Rochester, except for a four day period right around Christmas when we hit our max temps for the month and went completely snowless (That said, it was still technically "White" in Rochester with at least an inch on the ground) Now December 2015, that month was a complete loss. Absolutely unreal temps and less than 3 inches total on the month.
  8. Up Until Tuesday most of us on the lake plain hadnt even had a good frost yet. The last few days of hard freezes along with tonights temps in the teens will drop every leaf by Early next week. Its game over for any leaf left. I wouldnt worry about leaves lasting until Thanksgiving with temps in the teens and 20's today.
  9. 1.2" in South Gates but tricky to measure with melting, blowing, drifting, compaction, etc
  10. Beautiful radar with a giant prefrontal lake effect band and the arctic front charging across the Niagara Peninsula. Must be saved for posterity.
  11. I really don't know what to expect from this. Two years in a row we get an early season storm that has little precedent (at least within our recent history). The boundary layer is absolutely bone dry, but delta T's are about as high as it can get so who knows if they offset each other. Another negative is the very strong surface winds that will certainly make organization difficult. Here's hoping we get some serious upstream priming and a few inches to get this season kicked off.
  12. We sure did, that was one hell of an early season storm too. One of the best of the whole season last year. KROC had a little over a foot of snow on the 20th and 21st. It was all gone 4 days later though.
  13. A sure sign that things are quite frozen (Graupel) just off the surface.
  14. Oh my, can't say that I've seen many lake effect bands (albeit rain) that are that robust. That thing is an absolute monster. And as usual, it craps right out as it drops elevation moving into Monroe County.
  15. I think the very saturated ground, leaf laden trees, different wind direction from previous events, and relatively long duration of high winds will all come into play to create some localized power outages.