DeltaT13

Yeah this 0z run was a huge step in the wrong direction for all of next week. For ****s sake...

The GFS has trended every so slightly North with the surface low for 12 consecutive runs. Not the trend I want for the strongest winds.

I agree completely. The 2017 storm was anomalous and somewhat unexpected in my opinion. The models must have underestimated cloud cover, subsequent mixing, and the strength of the low level jet. We were under a high wind warning but it stuck to the general wording of 60mph with little indication of the catastrophe ahead. We then gusted into the 80's with almost 6 hours of 60mph gusts. I think it only affected a small corridor from Ohio through WNY, at least in regards to bad damage; so that is much different than this upcoming full latitude system. This storm would be an extremely widespread event if models held serve and storm goes sub 980mb. Local power utilities won't be moving around to help out, they will be working in their own cities. The Buffalo to Rochester corridor is somewhat battle hardened with a couple events above 70mph in the last decade or so, plus the usual pummeling from Lake Erie funneling on a yearly basis. Areas further inland that are usually spared may see higher winds than they have seen in potentially 20 years. Those places could get rocked.

I think Japan is probably the snowiest place on the planet. They have an incredibly ideal setup to get ocean effect snow for virtually weeks on end with incredible elevation to boot.

You're probably right but it could also be in the Catskills. I've heard rumors of some impressive snow depths after a string of Nor' Easters down that way. Hopefully we can track down this stat.

Yeah, a double box car blew over in Stafford which was attributed to the winds. Many local backyard weather stations in that area reported winds between 100-105mph although they can't be verified but I always assumed that gusts were higher than the ROC aiports measurement of 81mph. There are probably local areas of topography that significantly increase winds on the micro-scale

I foresee some major problems for the Niagara river with this storm. The ice boom is going to get mangled and likely fail leading to some serious pack ice getting pushed down the river. If enough ice breaks up we might have a strange ice seiche that will only exacerbate the situation.

I really need to pull up some maps from that event but I remember it being highly unusual. The winds did not form directly behind a cold front, in fact I think they came a day or two after a front passed. A large and extremely deep storm was cut off and just sitting and filling over Northern Manitoba or Ontario. This storm was deep enough to still have strong low and mid level winds far from the low center. On the 8th, a low level jet streak moved across the great lakes during a day with clear blue skies and strong march sun. Around noon, the inversion broke and these strong low level winds began to mix down to the surface in earnest. As the afternoon progressed, the winds continued to ramp up with strong mixing ongoing. As soon as the sun set, things ramped right down and the show was over. It was basically a 6 hour window of diurnal mixing with a powerful low level jet passing through. I just recapped all of that from memory, so I might be a little off. but it certainly wasnt a standard post frontal cold air advection setup like most of our events are. I remember they popped high wind watches the day before it happened and I kept trying to figure out how and why they thought there would be strong winds. I even recall telling some friends that the NWS was out to lunch thinking that winds would gust to 60mph. Oh how wrong was I. This next setup is far more traditional with a great isallobaric component, downward momentum transfer, steep lapse rates, and cold air advection. If we can tap into some clear skies and sun to really mix things up we may be in business for another whopper, here's hoping it all comes together.

And 24 straight hours of 40mph gusts. Pretty close to the dream storm for the wind chasers.

Not you too! I have no other wind enthusiasts on this whole forum...booooo. Check out this sweet hoodie I got from what will likely be the strongest wind storm to ever hit Rochester. I doubt it will be surpassed in my lifetime, but who knows. It sucks that they kind of screwed up the stats on the hoodie as there were actually many hundreds of utility crews brought in to handle that storm, (not just 150) and I think more than 130,000 people eventually lost power. Many of the utility crews were here for over a month. Here is a decent post mortem write-up from that event. Interestingly, peak wind gusts were realized during the early afternoon when the sun was out and mixing maximized the downward transport. We have that aspect on our side for the Sunday storm as the current models stand, but many days to go and things appear to be trending faster with the last few runs. https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2017/08/18/windstorm-damage/537351001/

I am very intrigued! A solid high impact wind event could salvage an otherwise dreadful few weeks here. It’s certainly a nice setup and always good to see max winds forecasts during the afternoon when mixing will be maximized. Even during the historic wind event on March 15, 2017 when Kroc gusted to 81mph, i still didn’t lose power so maybe this time I can get into the real action and mayhem. If models continue this way I’ll be charging batteries and running generators on Saturday. Would love to see this one verify. I may decide to park my truck somewhere else this time though, haha.

About 3.5 inches in my backyard, they were forecasting 4" so a decent forecast all things considered. Was hoping we would bust high. At least there was no rain or freezing rain mixed in. Just a nice normal snowfall.

18z NAM looks like a real solid hit for the I90 crew, decent amount of lake enhancement into Monday afternoon. I'm feeling good about 6 inches as well.

Where exactly is Matt again, I would think hes getting it pretty good right now....Thats becoming a pretty legit band.

I don't really even consider this a lake effect band. It's certainly picking up some moisture and frictional convergence from the lake/land interface but that band exists before it gets to Erie. I I suppose its originating off Huron, but it just seems somewhat synoptically driven in the cyclonic flow behind yesterdays storm. Either way, a great hybrid event that certainly caught me by surprise (just one day after I said the weather never surprises me anymore!) I expected some snow showers today but not blinding snow and 3 inch an hour rates in the ROC.