DeltaT13

I guess I was off a little. If you do the most basic interpretation of this excerpt from the NWS then you end up with a return interval of once every 6.8 years for snowfall in May. How rare is snow in May? Since 1900, Buffalo has had 16 years with measurable snow in the month of May and Rochester 17 years. That comes out to roughly 14 percent of the time we see measurable snow in the month of May.

Rochester had snow on May 15th last year. And we had snow on may 9th in 2010. Not unheard but certainly unpleasant. Seems like it has a return interval of about once every 4 years or so. If it's going to happen, it may as well lay down a few inches so we can really say it happened and remember it well. I'm pulling for it at this point.

I really wish we could have broken into some solid sun here. Such a shame to waste a truly high risk setup. Still thinking someone will get some serious straight line damage and flash floods. Things really go into the tank starting this weekend in regards to nice weather. That awful cutoff low just pinwheels over us for 7 days straight. Brutal stuff, we just need to dry out!

We'll be lucky to still have winter at this latitude by that time. At the current rate of arctic ice melt I would expect a radically different climate by 2050 for our region.

I really hope Syr doesnt pick up a crappy .2 inches in the next week or so...looks like one more surge or arctic air before things really retreat for good for the season. Bing deserves this one.

All snow in Rochester now. Grass has slight coating. Impressive!

Pretty fierce radar right now. You can't beat a storm that has a return period of 30+ years. I'd love to see someone get a nice foot somewhere in SW NY state.

Surface temps are real warm but dynamic cooling might be strong enough to create super heavy wet snow. I'm glad the sun is about to set, that will play in our favor. What an intense/interesting radar!

I'm only throwing in the towel because of that march sun. It decimates snow, the amount of melting yesterday and Thursday was quite impressive, even under very cold 850's. Very nice to see us stay snow the whole time this morning. A nice inch really freshened up the snowpack.

Oh how I wish we had an active severe weather season around here. Rochester barely even got a thunderstorm for the entire warm season last year. The Lake erie shadow absolutely destroyed any chance we had the whole season. I'm sure I'll pop in if a particularly high risk event evolves or perhaps a flood risk, etc...other than that...its just a very low key time of the year for the great lakes.

So this is probably it for the winter. I can't really imagine anything worthwhile on the horizon from this point out. Kind of sad to see it go after this last storm really delivered the goods and reminded me how good it can be around these parts. I'm thinking the snow tires will probably come off sometime next week. Its been an interesting "winter"...see you in the fall everyone, have a good summer!

I give you all the credit man. You said it would be a top 10 and I doubted it, definitely exceeded my expectations. It was the perfect setup for extensive heavy lake enhanced snows. Additionally, I really need to be more patient waiting for the mid and upper level lows to close off on these late blooming miller B..I should know better, haha. I cant remember a time when so many people received significant snows over such a large area without a single mixing issue great stuff.

I havent been able to clear my board in any regular interval. That said, i think 10 or 11 total inches is reasonable with 9 inches on the ground currently.

Well I measured 5" on the button at 445pm and I'm less than 2 miles from the airport so it's seems reasonable. We are probably up near 8 now.

Roch airport only reported 4.7 inches at 5pm. Still hoping we can start stacking this stuff up efficiently soon. I'm out at the distillery on mt hope. It's snowy fun driving but nothing impassable yet...visibility really drops when you hit the bands.