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DeltaT13

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by DeltaT13

  1. What do people think will be the highest wind speed recorded at ground level? All these eye popping numbers are substantially elevated in the atmosphere, I'll be interested to see what actually makes it down to street level. I'm thinking we should at least see a few 120mph or so.
  2. Webcams from that area all look pretty run of the mill so far. Kinda odd. Just looks like a rainy breezy day so far. No sign of surge or flooding at all. .
  3. Why does this worry people? Aren't we all here because we love big storms? There wouldn't be 165 members on this thread if we wanted storms to weaken. If people want to live in dangerous places that's there prerogative, I'm not going to stop being a weather enthusiast because people choose to live in high risk areas..
  4. Yeah, I kind of gave up on this site when everyone fled to the Discord server and we lost all the contributors. My work actually my start using discord so maybe I'll give it a shot someday..
  5. That 6z GFS would be a dream hit for us from that hurricane next week. I'd pay a lot of money to lock in that solution. A man can dream....
  6. Freezing levels are very low today and some sizeable hail is pounding areas just South of my location, looks Henrietta to Scottsville is getting the brunt. I should have chased!
  7. Winter storm warnings are out for Northern Alaska. Pretty unseasonable even for Alaska.
  8. Looks like a legit tornado on the ground in Wyoming county. You can see debris in the air on the radar apps. Crazy gate to gate shear too. Seems like a long track for around here.
  9. These are all relevant concerns and I do see dark times ahead for a lot of the globe. I don't think we will skate through this without any ramifications here in WNY, but I just think our area is extremely well positioned to to ride this out in the next few decades with little tangible damage in our own backyards at least. That doesn't mean we won't feel the reverberations of large scale global concerns, but at least we shouldn't be feeling massive water restrictions (or likely any restrictions) or rolling blackouts, etc. Your other concerns about agriculture are much more interesting and potentially unfounded. The way I've seen technology advance in just the last 20 years is nearly mind boggling. I have to assume that we will find ways to basically produce food on a synthetic/chemical level by the year 2100. All proteins, carbs, etc will likely be lab produced and far superior to anything we currently have. Raising livestock will eventually be completely unnecessary. I know it sounds kooky, but think replicator type stuff from star trek. And I'm sure we will have mastered indoor gardening on a scale that is unimaginable. I'm thinking massive skyscrapers or entire cities producing food on scales that would dwarf what we do now, all climate controlled and extremely efficient in regards to water use. There is also the possibility of a massive breakthrough in energy production that would then allow us to build massive carbon collection plants and desalinization plants. I think the next 20-30 years will be the hardest but I'm very hopeful that technology will help us fight our way out of this climate predicament in enough time. Let's just hope we don't have something far outside of our control like a massive kill shot from our sun that wipes us out...
  10. The heat all over the world is getting pretty alarming but I can think of few places on this whole earth better suited for extreme warming than WNY. We have more water than we even know what to do with as Lake Ontario has flooded several times over the last 5 years and the great lakes are basically an endless source of fresh water (not to mention the fingerlakes). We have ample room during summers for it to get quite a bit warmer with no real issues other than hearing Tughill Matt complain and our winters could certainly get much warmer without any true tangible consequences aside from pissing most of us off and maybe allowing some insects to survive the winter which could be a nuisance for some trees/plants. There are few places on this planet I'd rather be than right here if runaway global warming continues at the current rate. We are well insulated (no pun intended) from the deadly affects. I foresee our real estate becoming a commodity in the next 10-20 years. Sit tight friends!
  11. .84 in my backyard. Not expecting a heck of a lot more but I’ll gladly take what we got.
  12. .33” overnight. Better than nothing but nowhere near enough. Under the big trees didn’t even get wet
  13. Rochester getting shafted again in the rain dept. All the heavy rain is going South of us. Going to be heading into a full blown drought by this time next week.
  14. Man I didnt even register .01" from that frontal passage and the next week looks very dry. It's going to be a grind watering ery'day!
  15. Another day of disappointment coming for the Niagara frontier. Lake Erie is going to shadow us again. It’s soooo dry…gahhhh
  16. Every response to him is a win. He’s playing a different game that has nothing to do with weather. Just block and never respond.
  17. Looking back there was a marine layer again that triggered the eventual main storms. The first batch near Buffalo was driven from something else upstream. Tracking that marine layer is critical and a combination of the hrrr and NAM had this event down very well. A touch behind on timing.
  18. Meso models actually did really well with the Rochester and fingerlakes area. Almost nailed them to a T. Not too shabby. I thankfully got .45" of rain which is better than nothing. UR must have gotten almost 2 inches and some small hail.
  19. Yeah this is unusual. Marine layer is apparently not in play right now. Storms are way further West than any Meso model had them. I expect outflow from that first batch of storms will blow up something huge over the Genny valley in the next 3-4 hours. I can see storms in Canada 50 miles away from my office window so these storms are building pretty tall.
  20. Well the boundary of the marine layer proved to be a massive trigger for a pretty high end event yesterday. The damage in Livingston and Ontario counties was pretty extensive. 100mph microburst/downburst really rocked portions of 20a.
  21. Not one drop of rain today. Lake Erie is a bastard in these early summer setups.
  22. That storm just east of you is the real mvp so far. Lake Erie marine layer is going to win this battle further west. Looking pretty ragged
  23. You can see the marine layer from Erie on radar. These storms are going north and south of Rochester.
  24. surface based CAPE values are slightly above 5000j/kg. That’s pretty amazing.
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